ARG poll (for 2020): Kasich leads Trump by +12 in NH

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...h-leads-trump-among-likely-gop-primary-voters

600 NH-GOP-LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Kasich 52
Trump 40
Undecided 8
Margin: Kasich +12


Kasich 41
Pence 27
Undecided 31
Margin: Kasich +14


In 2016, then-candidate Trump won the NH primary with a +19.52% margin over Kasich, who took 2nd in that race. Trump then lost the state to Hillary Clinton in the GE. She held the state for the Ds by +0.37%. As of July, 2015 all NH polling for the GOP nomination showed Trump way in front, all 71 polls.

In fact, the final ARG poll from 2016 showed Trump at +16.

So, although this poll is a very early poll, it is telling.

Also from the Hill link:

 

If thia poll ia accurate then the democrats are certain to win back the white house in 2020

 

Hillary by 10.

 

That is not the subject of this thread.
Are you even capable of reading an OP?

 

First, this poll is coming WAY too early, but that in and of itself is a dangerous sign for Pres. Trump.
I have never in my adult life seen a major pollster poll for the primaries for 3 years later (they will start in Feb 2020) for the winning party. This is really new. And the fact that Kasich is so far ahead of the President in the first primary state of any cycle must be jarring news for the WH.

That being said, this poll will be cold coffee long before candidates of both parties announce.

I simply created this thread for the fact I listed in the long paragraph above.

 

Obviously "WAY too EARLY".

Trump might not even survive as Prez to see the 2020 Primary cycle.

BUT, it is inevitable that Trump or Pence will be primaried in the 2020 primaries.

And, in that scenario, Kasich is a very likely candidate.

 

Could be.

Again, I want to hammer the point home that I have never before in my life seen a primary poll for the next cycle this early in an administration, and of all things, for the winning party and the sitting president. This is really quite NEW and does not speak well for Pres. Trump.

 

It would shatter most presidents who grew up in the swamp and call it home

but I don't think trump plans to spend the first 4 years making sure he gets reelected

Assuming its true though and kasach is the nominee that means whoever runs for the democrats wins in a landside

Because kasich refused to support trump in 2016 and he will get the same treatment from the more numerous trump voters in 2020 if he wins the nomination

 

True.

That said, the Trump Trainwreck has been breaking "new ground" in several areas.

Lack of ethics.

Lack of morals.

Twitter meltdowns beneath the dignity of the office.

Etc.

 

kasich is like the guy in a bar fight,that hid under the table and when the fight is over,crawls out of his hiding place,rolls up his sleeves and walks out of the bar like he won.
john kasich is a worm.

 

I totally agree

He lost all chance of being president in 2016 unless he switches to the democrat party

And I doubt if they would have him either

 

See prev post.

 

would anyone like to see phn kasch's list of lies.just google it,this man is a garbage bag .

 

Kasich isn't going to run in 2020 and would be slaughtered if he did no matter who else is running as a Republican.

 

I think you made a pretty solid argument with your last sentence.

 

And kasich will be the most surprised person in America when it happens to him

 

Who is 'Trump Trainwreck?'

 

I think he is referring to Pres. Trump.
You have a problem with that or did you just feel like trolling this thread with a question that has absolutely nothing to do with the information in the OP?

 

That's ok, the polls for the 2016 election didn't speak well for him either.

I mean, he's not a serious candidate anyway.

 

What a comment! Kasich was the most qualified Republican candidate of the 16 or so that decided to challenge for the Republican ticket. His Moderate status will allow the congress to work towards accomplishing something for a change in Washington. His foreign policy experience from many years in Congress allows him to understand how things get done with other countries. Trump will not even see all of his 4 years, and by no means can he win again. You are probably one of the deplorable supporters of Trump that Hillary coined the term during the election. If the shoe fits wear it! John Kasich would make a very good President. Much better than the Blow Mouth in office now.
I am a Republican and did not vote for Hillary, so do not try the Liberal assault. I get tired of Trump supporters running their mouths just because he does!

 

Trump people would never support Kasich. He stands for everything the average Trump voter voted against. He will always be remembered as the fly in the ointment from the last campaign.

 

Kasich may win NH in this poll, but he will never win the primary. Just my prediction.

 

I see this as pretty much typical. The only people that like Trump are the voters and the pollsters have shorted him at every step.

You have to remember that they only polled 600 people. Then they didn't just publish the direct results. They took those raw results then fed it into their formula to get those percentages. We know their formula is wrong, just like everyone else's has been.

Thanks for a decent article that actually posts the question asked though. I completely ignore any poll that doesn't post the question.

 

With a decent candidate the Democrats would have crushed Trump and be occupying the White House today. With a decent candidate, if Trump runs for re-election the Democrats should have little problem in winning in 2020. But like 2016, it all depends on the candidate chosen. Candidates make all the difference.

 

I'm sure the liberal pollsters will reassure liberals that trump has no chance of being reelected

Unfortunately for the left the liberal pollsters one get one vote on election day and all their phony polls mean nothing