China has already lost the trade war

Discussion in 'Asia' started by SEAL Team V, Sep 27, 2019.

  1. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    OPINION
    Published 4 days ago
    Helen Raleigh: China has already lost the trade war. Here's why
    [​IMG]
    By Helen Raleigh | Fox News

    China already lost in the trade war with the U.S. Although you will never hear Chinese authorities, especially President Xi Jinping, admit it as such, the evidence is everywhere and only becoming more compelling by the day.

    Reuters recently reported that based on the Chinese government's own data, China's economic slowdown has worsened in August, with "growth in industrial production is at its weakest in 17-1/2 years amid spreading pain from a trade war with the United States and softening domestic demand. Retail sales and investment gauges worsened too." Despite such poor readings, Premier Li Keqiang insists that China is still on track to achieve 6 to 6.5 per cent growth rate this year.


    Given the Chinese government's tendency to present a rosier economic picture to satisfy political goals, most China watchers believe that Li's statement was an about-face, and that the actual economic situation is much worse.

    Researchers at the Brookings Institute estimated that China had inflated its GDP growth rate by close to 2 percent every year between 2008-2016. So in reality, China hasn't seen a 6 percent growth rate for nearly a decade (someone should send a copy of this to Premier Li). Moreover, the actual size of the Chinese economy was an estimated $10.9 trillion, 18 percent lower than the officially stated $13.4 trillion, as of 2018.
     
    Ddyad and scarlet witch like this.
  2. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There are no winners in a trade war - only losers. The article above gives no evidence that China is fairing worse than the US in the Trade war.
     
    XploreR, yardmeat and Sallyally like this.
  3. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    Spokesman: China Buying US Soybeans, Pork
    Associated Press • Sept. 26, 2019, at 6:33 a.m.


    BEIJING (AP) — Chinese importers have set deals to buy American soybeans and pork, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday, as the two governments make conciliatory gestures ahead of trade talks.

    The announcement follows Beijing's decision to lift punitive tariffs on soybeans, China's biggest import from the United States.

    Chinese buyers have "completed deals to buy soybeans and pork of considerable scale," said a ministry spokesman, Gao Feng. He gave no details.

    "completed deals to buy soybeans and pork of considerable scale"

    I think Trump won this one for the U.S., but the leftist Trump hating news will never report it. U.S. Farmers actually made out like bandits on this. After the devastating flooding in the Midwest due to the rains and massive snow melts earlier this year it would have been next to impossible to have crops and livestock at full capacity. After the farmers cashed in with insurance claims and govt subsidies I'm sure this comes as even better news, especially in Iowa.

    On a side note to all you investors out there I would ignor Billy Ray Valentine's advice to hold out. I would invest in pork bellies immediately. Your return should be more than enough to buy your son the G.I. Joe with the Kung Fu grip for Christmas.
     
    Ddyad likes this.
  4. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Messages:
    2,072
    Likes Received:
    702
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Consumer capitalism depends on a large middle class...people with credit and/or cash, with "things to buy." In theory, that means it may be easier for China to turn its economy from international trade surpluses to internal domestic consumption. While they also have a forthcoming demographic problem regarding an aging population, it isn't as severe as our own. Our situation is improving slowly and marginally, but the retiring baby boomer generation still creates a drag on economic growth, as well as basically still stagnate wages (wages are up, but not significantly once discounted for inflation) and slow personal savings growth. If holiday retail sales are not strong, it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back, resulting in the increasingly expected recession.
    Big economies can't turn on a dime. I suspect they are extremely busy in finding ways to be less dependent on the U.S. market and their U.S. trade. Also, they still hold around a trillion dollars of our foreign debt. Tough to get accurate figures out of an authoritarian state, but the same may be true here as we come closer to the 2020 election.
    Either way, we are far behind the growth promised by Trump in the 2016 campaign.
     
  5. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There are wins and losses on both sides - Trump extended some waivers .. a single example - in a complex affair like a trade war - does not much of a case make.

    China is not stupid - their moves are very calculated and they have been whipping our butt's on the geopolitical chessboard of late. Giving Trump a small win - for something that China really needs anyway - in no way means that China is losing more than the US in the Trade war.
     
    hampton86 likes this.
  6. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    China's economy is growing much faster than the US economy. Perhaps it is not 6% as claimed but it is growing much faster than 2% (US GDP).

    There are bigger picture items here to consider - long term as well as short. I think we needed to restructure our trade agreements with China but how and when we do this matters.

    One of the biggest geopolitical blunders that Trump has made is the Iran Sanctions. Not so much the sanctions themselves (not that I do not think that pulling out of the deal was stupid) but the way Trump tried to force other nations into observing these unilateral sanctions.

    Trump has threatened the nuclear option - threatening to block a nations banks out of the system of international payments - in US dollars.
    It is called "the Nuclear option" for a reason. Almost all of the nations that matter have gone wild over this .. using the strongest language "threatening our sovereignty" - not in private - but on in public on the world stage.

    This includes some of our closest allies - France, Germany, Britain, Italy - and the rest of the EU. Other nations such as India .. and obviously nations like China, Russia, Turkey, Iraq and so on.

    Every time we turn around we are being told "F U" - I have never seen this in modern US history - since we became the world economic superpower.

    Nord Stream - F U
    France - FU
    Italy - belt and road initiative "FU"
    Britain - Iran's ship "FU"
    India, Turkey - S-400 System "FU" and this is to name a few.

    While Trump is going around trying to beat other nations into submission using the biggest club he has .. China and Russia are going around doing deals.

    Our corporations used to have VIP status - now we are back of the bus in many cases. These nations - and their citizens - are not happy - and you can't blame them. How do you think we would respond if some other nation was directly messing with our sovereignty.
     
    Sallyally likes this.
  7. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    I know, they're liars and manipulators. After trying to deflate their currency a couple months back they're caught overvaluing their GDP by nearly 20%. Sounds like an Enron to me.
     
  8. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You give no evidence to back up your claim but - OK - so their GDP is 5% rather than 6% .. it is still a while lot better than ours.
    Trump is a liar and manipulator as well.. what else is new about politics.

    None of the above relates to the question of who is losing more.
     
    ronv likes this.
  9. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Messages:
    2,072
    Likes Received:
    702
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Basically agree...his policies follow his supporters "interests" (real estate developers, hedge fun managers, and fossil fuel people). My "theory" is that he wants a new "OPEC," led by the oil exporters, in particular the U.S., Russia and the Saudis. A new cartel would then fix oil prices, forcing oil importers such as China, India, and the EU to devote more of their GDP toward energy costs and controlling their development and military growth through energy pricing.
    And, as you probably know, developing and emerging economies almost always grow at a faster rate than developed, advanced economies...partially due to demographics and debt.
     
    Giftedone likes this.
  10. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    I bet you're just the life of a party.

    Here's a story from a CNN Trump Hater.

    Trump has the upper hand in the trade war with China. He can't back down now
    By James D. Schultz for CNN Business Perspectives

    Updated 8:59 AM ET, Wed September 25, 2019

    James D. Schultz is a CNN legal commentator and chair of the Government and Regulatory practice at Philadelphia-based law firm Cozen O'Connor. He served as senior associate counsel and special assistant to the president in the Office of White House Counsel during the Trump administration. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

    [​IMG]
    China is in trouble -- its people know it and President Trump knows it. In fact, Trump knew all along that his hardline stance against China would eventually dent its economy.


    With ALL this negative press during the last 32 months about collusion, obstruction, Russian spy, trade war, racist, bigoted, Ukraine, misuse of power and impeachment then why in the hell is the Market not responding what so ever to all this crap. China's fabricated economy is the same as the left social media's fabricated stories of Trump.
     
  11. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    This is how China operates. Being threatened will jail if you short sell. Ha!!!

    The first signs of trouble came in June, after the Shanghai Composite peaked at more than 5,100 points, a gain of roughly 150% over the previous 12 months. When the bubble burst, the index lost 32% of its value in just 18 trading sessions.

    Related: IMF warns over China's slowdown


    Beijing reacted forcefully. The People's Bank of China cut interest rates for the fifth time in nine months, regulators suspended new share listings, and threatened to throw short sellers in jail.
     
  12. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,070
    Likes Received:
    3,354
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What kind of ridiculous NPC statement is this?

    Progressives/Communists are busy trying to obfuscate what everyone is talking about.

    They are confusing "The United States is currently in trade where we are getting totally dominated"

    With using harsh trade practices (they call a trade war because it sounds "scary") in order to get a country that is taking advantage of another country, to come to the deal and practice fairly.

    China is literally the single most unfair, cheating, economic system in the world. When Clinton signed the China deal in the 90's it was so China would actually join the international community.

    They haven't and continue to abuse anyone they trade with.

    We should literally stop all trade with China, pushing it to other nations .... which is exaclty what is going on

    Progressives/Communists will use any attempt to make up stories about this, in order to go after Trump. They are so one dimensional that they love China more than the US
     
  13. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,070
    Likes Received:
    3,354
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Are you really trying to argue that the US is hurting more than China?

    That is so laughable that it literally destroys your credibility, glad to come in and show everyone you shouldn't' be listened to
     
    SEAL Team V likes this.
  14. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,070
    Likes Received:
    3,354
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's really not that hard to figure out.

    China doesn't have a consumer economy, literally, they have been trying to build one but they cannot convert their culture.

    Meanwhile, their mfg is getting more expensive, everyone was already starting to look elsewhere, Trump simply accelerated it because China is truly screwing us over.

    Great news for America and The West!

    Bad new for Progressives/Communists who are trying to work more closely with the Chinese Communists in order to create a similar "social score system" in the US. Truly, both parties have zero interest for the good of the US
     
    SEAL Team V likes this.
  15. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    I completely agree, but I always allow one to speak their mind. As mindless as it is, I unlike the liberal left ignorant dems will always listen.
     
  16. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gibberish from an Establishment wonk - is just that. Heck - perhaps what he is saying is true but, since he gives no evidence to support his claim - you have to to on "trust".

    Asking me to believe your claim on the basis of "trust" is appeal to authority fallacy.
     
  17. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I don't know what "NPC" stands for. I agree with some things in your post but nothing you say negates anything in my post so not sure what your consternation is all about.

    Where I disagree - is that we should not trade with China at all .. this is crazy talk ... something that might come out of the mouths of these Progressive/Communists you seem to dislike so much.
     
  18. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    First off - your reading comprehension is impaired. My post did not argue that the the US is hurting more than China. What I stated is simply that no evidence was given for this in the post I was responding to.

    If someone wants to make a claim - then they should support that claim. It is those who make such unsupported claims - and can't seem to make a post without building a strawman - that should not be listened to.
     
  19. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    619
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Gender:
    Male
    Not politically correct.
     
    Giftedone likes this.
  20. carlberky

    carlberky Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2019
    Messages:
    461
    Likes Received:
    225
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male

    APC. (Absolutely Politically Correct)
     
  21. Nonnie

    Nonnie Banned at Members Request Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2017
    Messages:
    5,611
    Likes Received:
    4,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    America will win the trade war because of one simple fact, America buys a great deal more from China than China buys off America.

    Same with the UK and the EU.

    America and the UK can keep on piling tariffs on more and goods whilst China and the EU will have ran out imports to charge.

    You will get some damage on both sides but China and the EU will suffer the most. As their businesses export less and begin to fold, it effects them in many areas.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
    ToddWB likes this.
  22. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    30,739
    Likes Received:
    7,883
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think the current Chinese plan is to just hold the line and hope Trump loses in 2020. If he does lose, than US trade policies with China return to the pre-Trump business as usual. That would be a big China win.
     
  23. kreo

    kreo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Messages:
    6,185
    Likes Received:
    249
    Trophy Points:
    63
    People are the winners. China is a center of pollution of the world (along with India), the growth of their economies leads to excessive carbon dioxide emission and deforestation.
     
  24. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Messages:
    2,072
    Likes Received:
    702
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Don't think so. Financial institutions, communist, socialist, or capitalist, like consistency and stability (however that's achieved). The United States under Trump is no longer stable or consistent, primarily because of his own "business model," which is tactical chaos, aimed at securing a negotiating advantage (what the media calls "transactional").
    So, while I do agree with you on China "waiting it out," they (and others) will also be evaluating the survivability of the current U.S. system and whether or not that system is disintegrating as it transitions into a world where it will not be the dominant global power. If that's the case, they may be planning a basic shift in their future economy, one that does NOT depend on the United States.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
    Sallyally likes this.
  25. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2010
    Messages:
    41,600
    Likes Received:
    6,695
    Trophy Points:
    113
    How are people winners by pollution by China and India ?
     

Share This Page