Climate Scientists or Real Estste Agents

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by bricklayer, Nov 13, 2019.

  1. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

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    Who do you believe more, climate scientists or real estate agents? Who has a better sense of what people actually believe, climate scientists or real estate agents? Are any real estate agents anywhere encouraging people to sell beach front property as soon as possible because rising sea levels are going to devalue all beach front real estate? Are any climate scientists suggesting that sea levels will not rise at a rate and to a level that will not devalue beachfront real estate?

    If people start to actually believe what the climate scientists are predicting, I'll see the best real estate buying opportunity in my lifetime. Unfortunately, the real estate market does not reflect what gets reported about what people believe.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
  2. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Climate scientists, as they are motivated by honesty. Real estate agents are motivated almost entirely by money.

    Both have the same sense of what people believe. Both understand that most people prioritize short term pleasure and making money.

    No, because that would lose them money.

    The climate scientists are correct. Beachfront real estate will be devalued. The issue is _when_. The earth will eventually be consumed by the sun becoming a red giant, which will really devalue real estate, but nobody is now taking that into account right now for property values.

    Even those who understand and accept the science know that many years will pass before flooding becomes critical. People think they can enjoy the beach for those many years, and maybe even later pass the property off to some other sucker for a profit.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019
  3. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Florida used to be more than twice the size it is now. For some reason some people think it is unusual for the oceans rise during a mild interglacial.
     
  4. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sea level rise had leveled off to almost nil, but now it's accelerating. That's the hard data. It irrefutably debunks your "It's natural!" theory, and it's not deniable by any honest person. Thus, you'll deny it now.

    Meanwhile, in Florida ...

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article238040499.html
    ---
    The county has 314 miles of road to care for — or choose to abandon. Half of them are susceptible to sea rise in the next 20 years. The cost to keep them dry has county government officials openly questioning whether the math is worth it.

    “Are we really going to spend $128 million to elevate three miles of road where 30 people live? It’s not up to me, but I don’t think so,” said Rhonda Haag, Monroe County’s head of resilience.
    ---

    Those houses have already seen their real estate value crash. It's all a matter of the time frame. 100 years vs 20 years makes a huge difference.
     
  5. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wrong again. Sure it slowed down after the Holocene optimum and had risen and lowered in minor steps during the Holocene but generally, sea level has always increased.
     
  6. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No. From wiki,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_sea_level
    ---
    Recently, it has become widely accepted that late Holocene, 3,000 calendar years ago to present, sea level was nearly stable prior to an acceleration of rate of rise that is variously dated between 1850 and 1900 AD. Late Holocene rates of sea level rise have been estimated using evidence from archaeological sites and late Holocene tidal marsh sediments, combined with tide gauge and satellite records and geophysical modeling. For example, this research included studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinae in Italy. These methods in combination suggest a mean eustatic component of 0.07 mm/yr for the last 2000 years.[15]
    ---

    In the 2000 years prior to 1850, sea level rise averaged 0.07 mm/year. It was almost zero. That rate was essentially unaffected by the LIA or MWP. After 1850, a significant increase began. The rate of increase gradually increased to what is now around 3.3 mm/year, and that rate of increase is still increasing.

    Your "it's natural!" theory can't explain that, so your theory is wrong. In contrast, AGW theory explains it perfectly.

    If you disagree, please tell us what natural factor changed between 1850 and now to cause such a steady acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.
     
  7. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yet each warm period has been cooler than the last including the modern warm period. That suggests that the near slowdown has rates that rise and lower with minor temperature fluxuations during that time so the rise now could be no different than past fluxuations during the last 2000 years.

    If you look at the graph, the black line is a homogenization of the actual proxy records which are the colored marks so the line may not be an actual indicator of sea levels but an approximation.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, it doesn't. Your conclusion in no way follows from your premise. The two are completely unrelated.

    Since there haven't been any significant fluctuations in the past 2000 years prior to the AGW-induced rise, your theory fails on that account. For example, the LIA and MWP both had no effect on global sea level. Your story about minor temperature fluctuations affecting global sea level is a fantasy.

    Your argument boils down to "The proxy resolution isn't good enough to rule out wild sea level fluctuations with 100.00000% certainty, hence wild sea level fluctuations must have happened!

    First, that's not how science works. Science rarely has such absolute certainty. We can't absolutely rule out that fairy magic drives sea level change, but that doesn't mean we assume fairy magic must therefore control sea level. It's the same with your theory. The onus is not on us to show absolute certainty; it's on you to back up your theory with hard data. Make sure you also explain why the Romans and Chinese never noticed these big fluctuations.
     
  9. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Guess you are not aware of the science.
     
  10. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's your standard run-away speech, and it was expected. You lasted longer than usual this time. You made it 3 posts this time. You're usually gone in 2.
     
  11. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hard to converse with one so uneducated about all the science.
     
  12. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

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    When has there ever been beachfront property that would not "eventually" devalue? The issue truly is "when".

    Quite a few people who promote ACGCC own beachfront property. Are they just taking one for the team?
    I don't see activity in keeping with their rhetoric. None of them are moving to high ground, so to speak. If you're ever in a crowed theater and someone yells fire, - stop -, look at the person yelling before you join the stampede.

    I'm not falling for it.
     
  13. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    In the Miami area, beach front property is rising in value at a slower rate than inland property because of flooding. We've had King tides for two months this year instead of the usual two to three weeks and some very expensive streets have been underwater two times a day.

    Why don't I sell? I can afford to lose the beachfront property I own, but for now, enjoy the lifestyle.

    The Florida Keys has two areas that have flooded every day for almost two months. They have decided that raising the streets would be too expensive, so have officially declared a managed retreat - they are going to buy those homes and level them rather than trying to keep access open.

    Managed Retreat is the word of the day.
     
  14. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

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    Are you trying to tell us that there is coastal flooding in Florida? WOW, that is something new.
     
  15. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    During a storm, yes ... not usually on calm winter days after the hurricane season. For the last two months, we have had very unusual king tides - and streets are flooding that didn't used to flood. That's not some abstract theory on change, that's demonstrative change. Even the Republican governor has stopped pretending it isn't happening and has appointed a new officer to coordinate a response.
     
  16. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

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    When people start selling cheap to get out before their property becomes worthless, please let me know. The real smart ones will want to get out early, and they're the ones most likely to have the best properties. Keep us apprised!
     
  17. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    For most of us living on the beach, it's more about lifestyle, not profits. But you said you would believe when property values on the beach were impacted by sea level rise - I showed you they were - you ignored it, so we can't believe you.
     
  18. bricklayer

    bricklayer Well-Known Member Donor

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    I missed that. I'm serious. If I can buy beachfront property for a significant discount because the property owners are trying to stay ahead of sea level rise, I am all in. I never thought that I could get something nice by the beach for less than $250K, but this might be my opportunity. What area are you referring to. My Denise will Zillow it. I know that we disagree, but I'd really like to do this if you're serious. I really believed that there are those who believe in ACGCC enough to do this, I was just waiting.

    I guess you could say that it's a denier's market.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2019

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