Complete 2020 Presidential polling compendium

This is going to shock you, but I am very, very glad that you voted. I assume you voted for Trump/Pence, but that's not the point. The fact THAT you voted is good. I would love to see a 100% informed public and literally 99.99% Voter Registration and turnout for elections. That would be a dream. One that, I fear, will never come true.

Again, kudos to you for voting!

 

There was a huge poll-dump on Sunday, most of which I have inputted on the online-excel table, but I have not worked out the newest averages yet. I'm expecting some polling to come in today as well. Sometimes, a couple even trickle in on election day itself, but by then I'm like hey, that horse already done left the barn.

That being said, the absolutely gargantuan D-voter and I-voter early voting means that all bets are off on a number of key states, above all else, Georgia and Florida.

And verily, verily, record turnout is bound to have implications in a great many down-ballot races, especially in the US House of Representatives.

Once the election has been laid ad acta and is part of the Congressional Record, people are going to be dissecting for years on end how a world-wide pandemic affected the most consequential presidential election of the 21st century.

One sign that the Trump campaign is facing an imminent and crushing landslide lies in the fact that the Trump campaign has not provided even one shred of internal polling showing him winning where he needs to win, unless of course Trafalgar (R) has been hired by him and both have been lying by not indicating that that firm is his internal pollster. Pollsters who do internal polling must identify themselves as so, otherwise, their results are considered to be public polling.

So, I am going to enjoy a beautiful weather day here where I live and hope that a lot of people go to vote.

On Tuesday, circa 9 am EST, I will be posting the final averages.

 

If you can't lose with grace, you aren't fit to lead. To deny such from power is good for the country. When you are forced awake from one, you realize it was just a nightmare and not real.

 

Trump can't even admit error on simple things. Unfit.

 

He doesn't trust his political adversaries to fairly measure him, and rightly so. He had benefitted the USA substantially as President, but you wouldn't know it to watch the left wing media that refuses to give credit where it is due.

 

If Trump wins, I will be glad. If Biden wins, I will abide. Can Democrats say as much?

 

I'm an economist and I know he hasn't done jack for average folks. The economy grew 0.1% slower in Obama's last three years than in Trump's first three. You're being sold a bunch of baloney.



The wage earner is getting screwed.



No credit is due either party for the last four decades.

 

It would be very difficult to turn the other way if Trump continues killing people and wrecking the economy by not fighting COVID-19.

 

I doubt they can. I imagine some Trump worshipers will lose it as well.

I'll be fine, either way. One will make me a little giggly; one will make me annoyed. I'll move on, on Wednesday. My life will go on as expected, either way.

 

So, as promised, I have recorded literally every single poll I could find in every aggregator, using RealClearPolitics, 538 and the Polling TL at Twitter, plus the Hedgehog project, a Republican site.

I took the averages of polls stretching back between 7-9 days, most of them within 7 and the vast majority of them over the last 3 days, so they are very, very fresh.

Instead of belaboring you with details, I have input the averages for 25 of our Republic's 50 states, plus the national figures, plus ME-02 as well and put the results in a table, first, alphabetically, and then sorted in order of descending margin, which I personally find much more helpful:



It's easy to read. You see that for Michigan, there were 23 polls in the end-aggregate and the aggregate value = Biden +8.84. Interestingly enough, his aggregate value there is almost identical to the national aggregate (Biden +8.86). In Europe, we use commas instead of periods for decimal places, this is why the numbers look as they do.

The table is far more instructive when it is presented in descending order of aggregate margin:



I've separated the table with green lines, based on percentage categories. The top 8 states all have an aggregate of +10 or more, they are most assuredly safe. Among those eight are five states that in the past were hot battlegrounds: NM, ME, VA, CO and NH.

Then, there are 8 states plus the national value between an aggregate of +5 and +10. Most people consider states beyond +5 to not really be battlegrounds. Interestingly enough, even with very contrarian polls from Trafalagar (R) and some other very right-leaning pollsters in the mix, the 4 rust belt states of MI, WI, MI and PA are all above an aggregate of +5, all for Joe Biden. So, technically, they are not battlegrounds. When the end results are in, then you yourself can decide if they were or not. Please also note that through this list of 25 I have included some "control" states, states are are definitely safe, just to see where the aggregate margins go. You will notice that the aggregate margins for Trump in UT, KS and MO are all less than the former battlegrounds of NM, ME, VA, CO and NH.

Everything under +5 is of course the real battleground territory, at least on paper. You can make a strong case that Biden's +5.39 in PA is close enough to +5 to call it a battleground and I can buy that argument. But using that argument, then so it Trump's +6.45 in MT.

In the battleground category, there are four states plus one congressional district between +2 and +5: NV, ME-02, AZ, FL and GA. The good news for Trump is that NV is definitely within the battlegrounds. The bad news for Trump is that Democrats tend to outperform the polling in all of the West - that has been historically proveable since 2004 and I have the receipts to back up this claim. Under +2 are the true tossups: OH, NC, TX and IA.

Of the bottom 8 states, from +5 on downward, 7 of them are Trump states from 2016. The only Clinton state in the battleground category is NV, and when we stretch the boundaries some, then PA with it.

I have not taken the time yet to count exactly how many polls of these end polls show either Biden or Trump at or over the 50 mark, but you can look at the screenshots yourself and see a sea of 50 and up for Biden, especially in the upper Midwest.

Are there some unanswered factors here? Yes, there are. In TX, if I have read the early voting stats correctly, then more than 3 million of the 9 million who voted early are 1st time voters, mostly from the southern part of Texas, which is strong Democratic territory. This is why Democrats are suddenly so bullish on Texas, and not just on the presidential level. On the other side, it looks really narrow for Trump in Iowa, but the final Selzer poll, which is absolutely the Gold Standard for the state (and I trust her work, she has always been on the up and up) shows Trump up by +7 in the Jayhawk state. This is the same margin she showed at the end of the 2016 trail, only it came a number of days earlier and early voting was not as it is now.

To the national numbers: Biden +8.86%. I am more than sure that his margin will end up being larger than this, for the A-quality pollsters are all showing larger margins. Especially the Dornsife rolling polling with a huge, continuous survey group, which Republicans just loved in 2016, shows Biden +11. As a matter of fact, the following major national pollsters recorded Biden +10 or more in their end polls: NBC/WSJ, Opinium, Long Island University (absolutely nailed 2012), UT Dallas, CNN, Redfield-and-Whilton, GBAO and CNBC. Either way, between +9 and +11 is for American purposes a massive landslide margin and should Biden land around +10, he will have surpassed Ronald Reagan's +9.74 win against Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Using simple logic, you can see that Trump is having to play defense on home turf and the upper Midwest is far more solid than Trump, Biden or the media really want to admit. Also, that margin in Arizona has been stubbornly for Biden for a long, long, time.

Back to California, a "control" state. Biden is at +30 on the aggregate, he will outperform this margin. If 16.5 million Californians vote (12.1 million) have already voted early, then "just" a +30 margin from 16.5 million = a 5 million raw vote margin in California alone. In the past, the Ds had big margins in California, which in terms of +raw-votes, was generally offset by a big R-margin in Texas. That is not going to happen this time.

This has the look of a Biden win, and a big one at that, one that will be hampered by a pandemic in terms of getting the votes counted. But once the last polls have closed in Alaska, this is no longer in Trump's or Biden's hands. It's then the states' job to count the votes and release the statistic. That's pretty much that.

In the next three postings, screenshots from all of the states on this listing.

-Stat

 

Didn't work out too good for you it looks like

1. Maybe in a VERY TIGHT race
2. Nope
3. Nope
4. Nope
5. Nope, not even close even though the MSM had been proclaiming both would lose big and more money raised than any Senate race in history AGAINST Graham
6. Nope

And vote by mail is having huge problems nationwide. I vote in person no problems as I have three times this year.

 

I can live with it as long as Trump is gone and Biden is in. Vote by mail looks brilliant right now. No problems in Oregon or Washington, Colorado, and Hawaii. We have had smooth sailing. Nobody stood in lines for hours, Nobody is waiting for our returns to come in, and nobody is filing any lawsuits either. We are smelling real sweet right now. The beauty of our system is that nobody has to put the ballot in the mailbox to get the value of vote by mail. You get the choice, as long as your choice does not require a voting booth or some retiree to sit there hand you a sticker.

 

If Trump's performance was soup, 2020 is watery broth.

He should have had victory in the bag.

 

Once the dust has settled (this will take a number of weeks), I will then compare that official end results with the end polling aggregates.

 

I agree with that.

Way too soon to be making assumptions about the polling.

One example being that there is the fallacious impression that the wannabe Fascist-in-Chief did "better" with minorities than he did in 2016. However it was his LOSS of support among the white electorate that gives that erroneous impression NOW.

We will need the COMPLETED official results from all states with VERIFIED demographics in order to determine the accuracy of the polling.

 

I think you should open your eyes to what is happening in these key battlegrounds who have not been able to count all their ballots and the attempts to block observers and bags of ballots showing up in the dark of night and people going to vote and being told they had already voted by mail and were not allowed to vote.