Democratic Primary predictions

This is my official primary season prediction. I may bump it after each new state primary/caucus to keep track of how my predictions are doing.

Feb. 3 -- Iowa caucus (41 delegates)
The polls are super close here, with Biden's polling average putting him just a point ahead of Sanders. This can pretty much be considered a tie. Clinton beat Sanders here in 2016, but only by a razor-thin margin. It could go either way, but I'll give it to Sanders.

Feb 11 -- New Hampshire primary (24 delegates)
Sanders won this state by ~23 points in 2016, while his current polling average has him at +5. So, another state for Sanders.

Feb. 22 -- Nevada caucus (36 delegates)
Hillary took the state by 5 points in 2016, which is about the same margin of Biden's current polling average lead. Nevada goes to Biden.

Feb. 29 -- South Carolina primary (54 delegates)
Biden will take it easily. Hillary took it by 47 points, and Biden's average puts him at +17.

March 3 -- Super Tuesday: primaries in AL, AR, CA, CO, ME. MA, MN, OK, NC, TN, TX, UT, VT, VI, caucus in American Samoa (1,344 total delegates)
Hillary won these contests 9-6 in 2016. I expect Biden to take 7 of those 9 handily: Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, and American Samoa. Bernie will win all 6 contests he took in 2016: Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, and Utah. That leaves two contests up for grab: California and Massachusetts. Hillary took both states in 2016. That year MA was very close. While CA was an easier win for Hillary, the case can be made that since in 2016 the CA primary fell later in the schedule, when Hillary had already taken a sizable lead in delegate counts, that a certain portion of fence-sitters simply fell on the side of who they already perceived as the winner. The polling puts Biden and Sanders in a virtual tie in CA, while polls in MA put Sanders significantly behind Biden. (Caveat: the most recent polling in MA is from October, and therefore out of date.) I'll give CA to Sanders and MA to Biden. So the Super Tuesday tally: Biden-8/Sanders-7

March 10 -- primaries in ID, MI, MS, MO, WA, caucus in ND, plus the Democrats Abroad vote (365 total delegates)
Hillary won 2 of 7 (she actually won 3 of 8 if you count the WA primary, but...well, read on) in 2016, but the only place she trounced Bernie was in Mississippi, which I'm giving to Biden. Sanders will take the 3 races he won in 2016: North Dakota, Idaho, and Democrats Abroad. The 3 remaining contests are toss-ups: Michigan (Hillary led in the polls there, but Bernie edged ahead for the win), Missouri (Hillary won by less than half a point), and Washington (this state had both a caucus and a primary in 2016; Bernie won the caucus and Hillary the primary, though the state's delegates were all apportioned according to the caucus results). There is sparse polling in these estates, but what polling I could find gives Biden a healthy lead in both MO and MI, while Biden is just a point ahead of Sanders in WA. I'm giving Biden MO and MI. WA appears to have done away with their dumb caucus + primary system, and will just have a primary this year, which leads me to think that Biden would have the edge (since Hillary outperformed Bernie in the state's primary last time), but since the polling is close I'll give it to Sanders. Tally for March 10 contests: Biden-3/Sanders-4

March 14 -- Northern Mariana Islands caucus (6 delegates)
Hillary trounced Bernie here. I'm giving it to Biden.

March 17 -- primaries in AZ, FL, IL, OH (577 total delegates)
Hillary took all four states in 2016, three of them (Arizona, Florida, and Ohio) by wide margins. Polling puts Biden well ahead of Bernie in every state. 4-0 Biden.

March 24 -- Georgia primary (105 delegates)
Hillary won easily. Biden is ahead in polling. Biden wins.

March 29 -- Puerto Rico primary (51 delegates)
Hillary won easily. Biden wins.

April 4 -- primaries in AK, HI, LA, caucus in WY (107 total delegates)
In 2016, Hillary won Louisiana, and Bernie took Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming. I think the results will be the same, with Biden taking Hillary's state. Biden-1/Sanders-3

April 7 -- Wisconsin primary (84 delegates)
Bernie took the state by 13 points in 2016, but current polling has Biden slightly ahead in three polls, with a tie in a fourth poll. It's a toss-up, but I'll give it to Sanders.

April 28 -- primaries in CT, DE, MD, NY, PA, RI (663 total delegates)
Hillary went 5-1 in 2016, and I think the states will fall the same way, with Biden losing only Rhode Island.

May 2 -- Kansas primary, Guam caucus (46 total delegates)
Sanders retakes Kansas, Biden takes Guam (where Hillary won in 2016).

May 5 -- Indiana primary (82 delegates)
Bide is ahead in the only poll I could find, but it's from last April, and Bernie took the state by 5 points in 2016. I'll give it to Bernie.

May 12 -- Primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia (57 total delegates)
Sanders retakes WV, Biden takes Nebraska, where Hillary won.

May 19 -- primaries in Kentucky and Oregon (115 total delegates)
I'll give both to Sanders, even though Hillary took KY by a slim margin in 2016.

June 2 -- primaries in MT, NJ, NM, SD and the District of Columbia (215 total delegates)
Hillary went 4-1. I'll give Sanders the state he won in 2016 (Montana) right off the bat, and give Biden D.C. There's no polling in SD; while Hillary won it by a slim margin, my gut gives it to Sanders. Polling is close in NJ and NM. I'll give each state to the person who has the slight lead: NJ goes to Biden, and NM to Sanders. Tally for the day: Biden-2/Sanders-3

June 6 -- U.S. Virgin Islands caucus (7 delegates)
Hillary beat Bernie like he stole something. I'm giving it to Biden.


[IMPORTANT NOTE: states and territories apportion delegates in various ways, so the pledged delegate counts listed below do not reflect the actual final delegate count the candidates will have if they win the contests as I predict. I put the pledged delegate counts merely to show what those states are worth in totality.]


Totals:

Biden
Alabama, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Virginia

31 contests (2,619 pledged delegates)

Sanders
Alaska, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

26 contests (1,360 pledged delegates)

In addition to pledged delegates, there are 771 superdelegates who are free to vote for whomever they please at the national convention. though by custom they tend to vote for whoever has more pledged delegates going into the convention.

 

I think the votes will be for Saunders.
Both Warren and Biden have lots of negative perception. Bernie is bad for America but i think people generally have positive view of him personally.

 

IOWA



Bloomberg 0

Patrick 1

None of the Above 2

Bennet 3

Gabbard 4

Delaney 5

Yang 6

Steyer 7

Klobuchar 8

Warren 13

Buttigieg 15

Biden 16

Sanders 20



Bennet, Gabbard and Klobuchar drop out



NEW HAMPSHIRE



Bloomberg 1

Steyer 2

Delaney 5

Patrick 9

Buttigieg 11

Yang 12

Biden 13

Sanders 23

Warren 24



Delaney drops out



Nevada

Bloomberg 1

Patrick 5

Buttigieg 11

Sanders 16

Steyer 18

Warren 23

Biden 26



South Carolina

Bloomberg 1

Buttigieg 6

Steyer 8

Sanders 16

Warren 17

Patrick 23

Biden 29

Explanation:

Bloomberg isn't on the ballot.

Patrick started late.

Bennet has low energy and no message.

Gabbard has no natural constituency in Iowa.

Delaney won't spend his own money.

Yang was not prepared for 2 more billionaires in the race.

Steyer is relying too heavily on commercials.

Klobuchar can't get enough attention.

Warren is too mean to dominate but there are enough feminists to keep her going.

Buttigieg gets by on personality and shaking the most hands in Iowa but it won't hold up.

Biden excites no one, but he rises as you study the opponents.

Sanders has a core of passionate followers.

 

Whoo that's a lot of predictions all at once. But starting with the nearest race, I basically agree that Sanders should have it, unless the party does another "dice roll" and gives it to Biden.

 

Does it matter. Biden sadly is senile, do democrats want him taking on Trump in debates, Trump will make him cry. Literally. Non stop gaffes. Sanders and Warren are socialist, and downright dangerous, Sanders is just wrong on every thing, everything, and Warren is completely dishonest to her very core, two more big winners.
Democrats missed their best opportunity with Gabbard. She is realy smart, attractive, military veteran, and she is the only candidate that doesn't hate half the country, had they gotten behind her she would have won, but since her campaign wasn't 100% "I hate Trump 24/7" then they had to jettison her. The DNC has screwed her over big time, if she wants to be president some day she may just get there.....as a Republican.

 

Gabbard is a socialist. She's not going to the GOP. The Greens more likely.

 

Way too much for me to predict so I'm just going to predict Iowa and New Hampshire and say Biden then Sanders.

 

blame the voters I guess. it is what it is, but I like her. Then again I always seem to like longshots and underdogs, it's a curse.

maybe she goes 3rd p, but I seriously doubt it. I wish someone would, I'd consider anything.

 

CrepedCrusader was brave predicting every state in advance, but doing it that way allowed Crepedcrusader to dodge the progression of the remaining 10 candidates.
My post was put together to impress a young lady I won't see again until after the New Hampshire primary. I didn't plan to post it here until this weekend, waiting for new developments-and an Iowa weather forecast for Monday. It now stands at near freezing but partly cloudy. I assume few will stay home for that, but the colder it gets the fewer votes Biden gets.
The most passionate voters want Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg.
Since my goal is to prove I'm better than the pollsters, understand the race top to bottom and the psychology of American voters everywhere in the country, I'm not content with less than all candidates within one position or 5% of my prediction.
By the middle of the 2020 race I was picking Cruz' percentages better than his wife.
So today's exit by John Delaney-to whom I assigned 5% in both Iowa and New Hampshire-is a big deal for me but of no consequence to Crepedcrusader (unless he thinks Biden gets Delaney's votes to inch past Sanders.) He might.
I used whole numbers for each candidate, including None of the Above, (a likely place for Delaney's votes to go). That gave Delaney 5% though I thought he would be a little lower.
So the question is: what should I do with that 5%.
Give it to Bennet-a likely second choice for Delaney supporters familiar with the man-and he jumps 4 places. I can't do that, nor can I boost them.
Give it to Klobuchar and she catches Warren. That's a good idea. Delaney voters won't jump from a hopeless candidate to another hopeless candidate, but might go to the longshot who needs them most.
The percentages I alloted to the 3 females were based on my belief that about 1 in 4 Democrats want a woman to win the nomination and will vote for the female who is viable. If any of the 3 women in the race can earn votes beyond that, it's Klobuchar.
Then I thought about the people nearer the bottom. I decided to drop Yang to Delaney's 5, because I expected Delaney lower than 5 and Yang lower than 6. If I had used fractions Steyer might have ended up around 7.1, so I dropped him too.
Since I expect Gabbard lower than 4%, the 10 for Warren and 12 for Klobuchar really does not mean I predict 26% for the 3 women combined but 25% after fractions.
I wasn't comfortable giving Sanders a victory with only 20%, but the whole numbers lower left no choice. I couldn't drop Biden below 16%. So I opened it up a bit near the top, more confident than a week ago about the top 5 and the bottom 4.
IOWA



Bloomberg 0

Patrick 1

None of the Above 2

Bennet 3

Gabbard 4

Yang 5

Steyer 6

Warren 10

Klobuchar 12

Buttigieg 13

Biden 18

Sanders 26

Obviously Klobuchar will not drop out after finishing fourth in Iowa. Bennet and Gabbard still drop out.

In New Hampshire I again ended up with Delaney at 5%. I think that was attainable, but still not a figure that gives hope.
Since Klobuchar would still be in the race, that requires more work than reassigning 5%.
Klobuchar will have only a week to introduce herself in New Hampshire, trying to penetrate the supporters of 3 local prospects. She can't do well.
I could give her Delaney's 5% but that's too easy.
Success in Iowa means nothing to New Hampshireites, and fourth place is not success unless you expected sixth or lower.
I ended up with Warren at 24% because I had her the only female. I gave 9% to Patrick based on him splitting the majority of the southeast corner of the state with Warren. Without Patrick and as the only female I would have assigned her 33% and a healthy first place. This ended up with her ahead of Sanders by a whisker.
I wasn't fully comfortable with that, but there was no other candidate I could take votes from to put Bernie ahead of Warren.
Warren can not lose many votes to Klobuchar.
Once again, Bloomberg could be less than 1% and Steyer less than 2%.
I might be too generous with Patrick, but he is a better choice than Warren if your pick is from the best Massachusetts candidate. Adding Sanders for a choice of best New England candidate, or best successor to Obama, Patrick still wins. His late start is all that keeps him in one digit, unless we accuse New Hampshireites of racism. That case is credible.
Buttigieg and Yang can sink, but Buttigieg has a base of support in New Hampshire and spent a lot of time there. Yang should not lose votes to Klobuchar, but can lose votes based on hopelessness.
So I end up with the 3 moneybags at the bottom, Klobuchar trimming Warren, Patrick trimming Warren, Biden a whisker ahead of Warren and Sanders taking another win.
I'm not comfortable with this, but the only remaining weak point is Patrick, dropping to nearly the bottom and making Warren the winner.
NEW HAMPSHIRE



Bloomberg 1

Steyer 2

Yang 4

Klobuchar 7

Patrick 9

Buttigieg 10

Warren 19

Biden 20

Sanders 28

I previously had Delaney dropping out here. In this scenario we might lose Yang.

 

When I was looking to Nevada I started at the bottom with Bloomberg, went on to Steyer, gave Steyer a lot of votes based on his heavy ad campaign, and missed Yang as I returned to the New Hampshire list. I didn't notice.
So I'll stick with that and have him drop out after New Hampshire.
I doubt if Klobuchar has done much in Nevada, so all I can do is have her skim some of Warren's totals.
The big question is my level of confidence regarding the effectiveness of Steyer's ad campaign. It has to be worth something. any Yang supporters there would go with Steyer, so I keep him at 18%.
Patrick had no time and has to put all he's got into the south. That's worth trying no matter how badly he does in New Hampshire.
Sanders has a base there but the biggest plurality of voters will go with the establishment candidate: Biden. Only Warren or Klobuchar can tap into that. I doubt if Warren will prioritize that state. Sanders also needs to build strength in the south. After 2 wins, his concern will be to find new support in the places it was lacking in 2016.
Biden might be embarrassed after 2 losses, so he'll concentrate heavily on Nevada that week. He won't stay in the race if he's third. He still probably thinks he can sweep the black vote in the south, so Nevada is the place to take control.
So I ended up with Klobuchar limping along, weakening Warren but not overtaking her.
Nevada

Bloomberg 1

Patrick 3

Klobuchar 6

Buttigieg 11

Sanders 16

Steyer 18

Warren 19

Biden 26

No one ever drops out after Nevada.

Warren has done a lot of work in the south, especially South Carolina. I don't know if Klobuchar has any strength there or not, but she'll be committed to remain in the race through super Tuesday, zseeing how far a single win in her home state can take her. Warren by then will have the same problem in Massachusetts, where she may no longer be the favorite.
Patrick needs a win, but down south or at home in Massachusetts are equally acceptable places to find it. So he'll work hard in South Carolina, but not too hard.
To insert Klobuchar I further trimmed Buttigieg's numbers. By this point he'll be suffering from the obvious problem. He won't win any primaries! It's hard to say when a man like him will drop out of the race. He might become the Kucinich of this election.
Steyer's commercials will help less in South Carolina than in Nevada. I decided to bring him down about as low as I dare, then put Klobuchar a bit ahead of Warren, as the nicer of the 2 females.
Sanders will do no better down south than in 2016, but 16% is closer to the top this time.
I picked a number that will give Patrick most of the black community, but not enough to win.
I think many southerners will be in a panic about the early results, not comfortable with anyone but an anglo-saxon straight man.

South Carolina

Bloomberg 1

Buttigieg 4

Steyer 5

Warren 10

Klobuchar 12

Sanders 16

Patrick 23

Biden 29

 

No one dropped out, so I had to rework the numbers for 11 participants:

Bloomberg 1

Steyer 2

Bennet 3

Yang 4

Gabbard 5

Klobuchar 6

Patrick 8

Buttigieg 11

Biden 16

Warren 20

Sanders 24

Then I found out it's going to be raining and snowing all day in New Hampshire, so I adjusted for bad weather:



Bloomberg 1

Steyer 2

Bennet 3

Yang 4

Gabbard 5

Patrick 6

Klobuchar 8

Buttigieg 10

Biden 13

Warren 21

Sanders 27



Explanation:

Biden supporters have low enthusiasm.

Buttigieg supporters know he won't drop out and doesn't need their votes.

Patrick supporters only want to vote against Warren and will decide staying home is just as good.

Warren inches up only by reduced turnout.

Sanders people know he needs a resounding victory and severe weather gives him a chance.

Klobuchar voters know they need to vote or she'll drop out.

 

Nevada

Bloomberg 1

Gabbard 2

Klobuchar 11

Warren 12

Steyer 14

Buttigieg 15

Sanders 22

Biden 23



South Carolina

Bloomberg 1

Gabbard 5

Buttigieg 9

Steyer 10

Warren 12

Sanders 17

Klobuchar 18

Biden 28



When I decided to predict 4 states in advance I put conditions on revisions. I decided I could change predictions only if the ballot looked different than I expected as the election approached or severe weather.

In this case Patrick is out and Gabbard is still in.

Nevada used to have primaries at the end of the race, the same day as California. The same person usually won both. I suspect no one visited Nevada. When races started being decided early the western states had no impact, so they all agreed one western state should vote before the crowd. Harry Reid used his influence and Nevada is a good choice. With only 2 major population centers and ethnic diversity the state tells some candidates what to expect hereafter.

They use the same system as Iowa, but until this year it didn't matter much because they never had this many candidates before. With the 15% rule, a maximum of 6 candidates can get something in every precinct so someone will be shut out. 10% everywhere is no better than 0%.

As with all predictions, I start at the bottom based on the last primary. That's Bloomberg. I give him 1% again.

Before I was sure about the 15% rule I had a higher number for Gabbard. She would have dropped out by now unless she saw a spark of hope somewhere. This might be the place. She could scoop up the votes intended for Delaney, Harris, Booker, Bennet, Patrick and Yang. Those might not add up to 15%, so most likely she will have only pockets of support. I would have preferred to give her a number higher than 2, but can't justify it.

Steyer is the big problem, relying too heavily on commercials, but I suspect most Nevadans will not meet any of these people and that could be worth a lot. From my original prediction of 18% I whittled him down to 14.

Somehow Biden is still first in nationwide polls. The early polls came before anyone was thinking too hard, but is there evidence people are thinking hard now? In Nevada I don't think there are as many thinkers as elsewhere and some who are thinking have concluded he needs their vote. So I kept him in first place with a reduced total.

Warren really is declining. At the start she had the support of Hillary lovers and feminists. With a solid female challenger her support is declining, but she does have a strong organization on the ground and can only drop so far. I'm guessing she'll have a close race with Klobuchar. I put her just ahead.

Klobuchar finished fifth and third. Does anyone think she'll go 5-3-1? That's not likely. It points to a consistent showing about fourth place overall until others drop out. In Nevada there might be fewer places where her supporters can reach 15% by bringing over other losers. Somewhere there may be a place all 3 females are below 15%. Which will they put over the top? That may be her best hope, but Klobuchar is the most likely of the top 6 to fall short throughout the state. She might do a lot worse than 11% even if that's the true number of people who want her.

I've been wrong twice about Buttigieg. I could take the easy road and pick him for second place everywhere. I did that with Rubio and got burned. I assume he got what he got in Iowa and New Hampshire by shaking the most hands. In Nevada he's racing Klobuchar for that honor. It might be a tie. He's lucky Biden, Warren and Steyer are not hand shakers. I decided he'd have pockets where he won hearts, but also places few know who he is even now. I compromised at 15% before I was sure what position that might be. After I adjusted the females to a combined 25% and made it close, Buttigieg ended up third, but fifth would not surprise me.

That leaves Sanders. I've had him within 1% both times now. In New Hampshire he got 120,000 fewer votes than in 2016. I believe he and Buttigieg both got every vote they could possibly get in both states.

In 2016 he lost 52-48, so a big victory is in reach.

My overall prediction is that he'll end up with about half of his 2016 total overall. So I go with another photo finish, Sanders just below Biden. That might be his fate in a lot of places.

 

You think Biden is as strong against sanders as hillary was

I will be shocked if Biden stays in.

Bootyboy may be the dnc pick as they demand to do the counting in key states! Lol

Just the fact mayor pete is gay is all the corporate dems need to support him. Plus he appears to be another wall street stooge like Obama was .

 

He's not as strong, but has the establishment vote on his side if he needs it. Establishment voters in Nevada and South Carolina and other states ahead will show up and vote for him until a better establishment candidate is ahead of him.
I think he'll drop out if he finds himself third or lower and endorse the candidate in the top 2 who is not Bernie.
The Democratic nightmare is for Bernie to be third after super Tuesday. He stays the distance while the other 2 fight it out. Imagine every state April-June decided 35-33-32.
While a brokered convention might be horrible, is a deal among 2 of the top 3 before the convention better?

 

Nevada has more days of sunshine than anywhere in the US, but on Saturday it's going to rain with an expected low daytime temperature of about 45 degrees Fahrenheit. The worse the weather, the fewer votes Biden gets, so I must conclude God wants Biden to lose. There are more direct ways if he can't take a hint. In any case, since I had Biden winning 23-22 there's only one way to adjust the prediction. I decided to take 3 points from Biden and give them to Buttigieg. That's because I assume all 3 top contenders in Nevada will reach the threshold in all precincts and lower turnout might not matter to anyone else.
That yields:
Nevada

Bloomberg 1

Gabbard 2

Klobuchar 11

Warren 12

Steyer 14

Buttigieg 18

Biden 20

Sanders 22

 

Early voting in Nevada going into today was 86% of total turnout in 2016. If the same day caucusing turnout holds as one third of total turnout they’ll blow by their 2008 record turnout.

The weather will likely slow it down but not enough to make difference.

I see Biden as a third or fourth place finisher and if so that’ll wreck havoc in S.C.

 

Biden is 100 percent knocked out

Bernie is heading towards the final laps

 

In Nevada I had Bernie first. He's first.
I had Biden second with 20%. He's second and had 20% with the final alignment.
I had Buttigieg third with 18%. He was third with 18% in the final alignment. That was after I adjusted for the rain. Before the rain I had him third with 15%. He was third with 15% in the first alignment.
I had Steyer fourth. He was sixth.
I had Warren fifth with 12%. She was fourth with 12% in both alignments.
I had Klobuchar sixth. She was fifth.
I had Gabbard seventh. She was seventh.
I had Bloomberg eighth. He was eighth.

 

Nevada is run by unions and illegal aliens steal the election

 

In South Carolina I had Biden first. He's first.
I had Klobuchar second. She's sixth.
I had Sanders third at 17%. He was second at 19%.
I had Warren fourth. She's fifth.
I had Steyer fifth at 10%. He was third at 11%.
I had Buttigieg sixth at 9%. he was fourth at 8.24%.
I had Gabbard seventh. She's seventh.
I had Bloomberg eighth. He's eighth.

 

Back on Wednesday I made super Tuesday predictions for all 16 races. Then on Friday I learned 10 states are expecting bad weather Tuesday, so I adjusted. Now with Steyer out and South Carolina behind us I can change again. I'll post all 3 percentage totals. That should make my reasoning obvious. I did them by degree of difficulty
Vermont
Steyer 1 0
Gabbard 2 1
Klobuchar 3 2
Biden 4 3
Buttigieg 5 5
Warren 6 8
Bloomberg 8 7 9
Sanders 71 70 72

American Samoa
Steyer 1 0
Bloomberg 2 1
Buttigieg 3 2
Klobuchar 4 3
Warren 5 4
Gabbard 10
Sanders 35
Biden 40 45

Democrats Abroad
Buttigieg 1
Steyer 2 0
Gabbard 3 2
Bloomberg 5 4
Klobuchar 7 6
Warren 9 8
Sanders 33 39
Biden 40

Alabama
Gabbard 1
Buttigieg 2
Bloomberg 3
Steyer 5 4 0
Sanders 15 16
Warren 16 18 19
Klobuchar 21
Biden 37 35 38

Arkansas
Gabbard 1
Buttigieg 2 3
Steyer 3 4 0
Bloomberg 11 9 12
Sanders 15 17
Klobuchar 16 9
Warren 24 26
Biden 25 28 32

North Carolina
Gabbard 1
Buttigieg 2
Klobuchar 5
Steyer 7 0
Bloomberg 9 14
Sanders 15
Warren 19 16
Biden 42 47

Maine
Gabbard 2 1 2
Steyer 4 3 0
Bloomberg 6 5
Biden 9 8 10
klobuchar 10 11
Warren 16 17
Buttigieg 18 19
Sanders 35 36

Massachusetts
Gabbard 1
Steyer 3 0
Klobuchar 5 8
Buttigieg 10 11
Biden 13 12
Bloomberg 18
Warren 24
Sanders 26

Minnesota
Gabbard 1
Steyer 3 0
Warren 7 5
Bloomberg 10
Biden 13 18
Buttigieg 20
Sanders 21
Klobuchar 25

 

Tennessee
Steyer 1 0
Gabbard 3 2 1
Warren 5 6 3
Buttigieg 7 8
Sanders 15 16 15
Bloomberg 17 18
Klobuchar 23 25 20
Biden 27 26 35

Texas
Gabbard 1
Steyer 2 0
Buttigieg 3
Klobuchar 4 2
Warren 16
Bloomberg 19
Sanders 26 27
Biden 29 28 32

California
Gabbard 1
steyer 2 0
Klobuchar 3 2
Warren 6 4
Buttigieg 8
Biden 11 14
Bloomberg 31
Sanders 38 40

Colorado
Gabbard 1
Steyer 2 0
Bloomberg 9 6 8
Biden 14 10 12
Warren 15 18 14
Klobuchar 15 16 17
Buttigieg 20 21 22
Sanders 25 26

Oklahoma
Gabbard 1
Buttigieg 2
Steyer 3 0
Bloomberg 6 5 8
Biden 12 10 12
Klobuchar 15 13
Warren 29 31 22
Sanders 32 33 42

Utah
Buttigieg 1
Gabbard 2
Warren 5
Bloomberg 6 4 8
Steyer 11 10 0
Biden 16 14 19
Klobuchar 20
Sanders 39 44 45

Virginia
Steyer 1 0
Gabbard 2 1
Buttigieg 3 2
Bloomberg 8 11
Warren 12
Sanders 15
Klobuchar 22
Biden 37

 

Lack of time forced me to make my first super Tuesday predictions last Wednesday. Then I revised them for foul; weather forecasts Friday. When Steyer dropped out I hastily reassigned his 2s and 3s with some shuffling of other candidates.
With Buttigieg gone I have more work to do. In a few states I saw him having a big impact. If only 5 states were voting tomorrow and he concentrated on 2 of them he might have pulled a win.
However the biggest news this weekend is not that 2 underqualified candidates are out of the race. The big news is that Biden won big in South Carolina. Sanders was where I expected him. The ladies flopped. I want to be exactly right, so I had to rethink the situation with Klobuchar and Warren in the south.
So here goes one more prediction for 6 candidates:
Vermont

Gabbard 1
Klobuchar 2
Biden 4
Warren 7
Bloomberg 11
Sanders 75

American Samoa

Bloomberg 1
Klobuchar 2
Warren 3
Gabbard 10
Sanders 34
Biden 50

Democrats Abroad

Gabbard 1
Bloomberg 2
Klobuchar 3
Warren 4
Sanders 40
Biden 50

Alabama
Gabbard 1
Bloomberg 4
Warren 9
Klobuchar 13
Sanders 15
Biden 58

Arkansas

Gabbard 1
Klobuchar 7
Sanders 15
Bloomberg 18
Warren 27
Biden 32

North Carolina

Gabbard 1
Klobuchar 6
Warren 10
Bloomberg 13
Sanders 15
Biden 55

Maine

Gabbard 2
Bloomberg 7
Biden 13
Klobuchar 14
Warren 20
Sanders 44

Massachusetts

Gabbard 2
Klobuchar 9
Biden 14
Bloomberg 19
Sanders 27
Warren 29

Minnesota

Gabbard 2
Warren 7
Bloomberg 11
Biden 20
Sanders 26
Klobuchar 34

Tennessee

Gabbard 2
Warren 4
Sanders 15
Bloomberg 19
Klobuchar 22
Biden 38

Texas

Gabbard 1
Klobuchar 3
Warren 19
Bloomberg 22
Sanders 26
Biden 29

California
Gabbard 1
Klobuchar 2
Warren 11
Biden 16
Bloomberg 32
Sanders 38

 

Colorado

Gabbard 2
Bloomberg 13
Warren 14
Biden 20
Klobuchar 23
Sanders 28

Oklahoma

Gabbard 1
Bloomberg 9
Klobuchar 11
Biden 14
Warren 24
Sanders 41

Utah

Gabbard 1
Warren 6
Bloomberg 9
Biden 16
Klobuchar 20
Sanders 48

Virginia
Gabbard 1
Bloomberg 12
Warren 13
Sanders 15
Klobuchar 22
Biden 37

 

Klobuchar dropped out, forcing me to revise the predictions yet again. I can't be sure if I'll have time to post everything before polls start being announced. The American Samoa caucuses might be over before I get to a computer again, so I'll post the revision now

American Samoa

Bloomberg 1
Warren 2
Gabbard 10
Sanders 37
Biden 50