Democrats 2020: 50 states, 50 candidates

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Phil, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Jennifer Granholm (your Michigan person) was born Canada and ineligible to run for U.S. President.

    If she had been born in the USA she would be a Top-Tier candidate.
     
  2. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Donor

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    What about Ted Cruz
    Ted-Cruz-Canada.jpg

    Moi :oldman: says wherever the after birth went ploop on the floor
    is where one is born.
     
  3. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Things are happening fast and exploratory committees are not candidacies. but so far 7 names are in circulation. We've got the wrong Marylander, the wrong Texan, the wrong Hawaiian, the wrong Minnesotan, the wrong New Yorker and 2 wrong Massachusettians.
    The right people, some for the third or fourth time, are standing back for fear of the Clintons. By the time the last glimmer of expectation Hillary will join the race is gone it will be too late for a new candidate to emerge.
    It may also be that some fear not the Clintons this time but the President himself. The reason we gave 3 clunkers in a row 2 terms is because potential a-list opponents stayed out of the race hoping for an easier foe.
    If they're such cowards, the Presidential credentials my 50 picks have lack the leadership and boldness a President needs.
     
  4. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    California: Kamala Harris

    Kamala Harris of California looks more like a movie star than a politician. She has a Tamil Indian mother and Jamaican father. Just looking at her in 15 debates will be worth a good rating. At 56 she is the right age and as a former California Attorney General she knows who to arrest and who to release. An expert on voter fraud she can win without many votes and California's early primary might put her in the lead. The men in California are of no value so the first term Senator is the best the state has to offer. With nothing to do in the Senate she has plenty of spare time to visit all corners of the country. The Democratic Party has gone effeminate but bitchy. It's time for beauty and class.

    She's the first from my list to announce and will start as the frontrunner among announced candidates.
    By bypassing the exploratory stage she joins only Delaney and Julian Castro officially. Delaney's name will now be seldom spoken and his face rarely seen.
    Gillibrand and Warren can now direct their exploratory committees to assess their chances against Harris. She's hoping both will see themselves at a deficit and quietly withdraw. Should Harris arrive at the primaries as the only female on the ballot her candidacy may define the limits to what a woman can get in a freely disputed race.
    She has no natural constituency in Iowa or New Hampshire, but if southern blacks accept her as one of them first place in South Carolina is attainable. Castro might be her biggest threat in Nevada, even if they're battling for second behind a white man.
    No one will complain if she drags to the limit in second or third place. A teary goodbye after an early letdown will also sweeten her long-term credentials.
    If nothing develops, just being in the race briefly gives her a head start in her 2022 Senate run. She'll never have an easy race in the jungle primary system in that state.
     
  5. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Way too early to speculate on the race (especially in places like SC and NV) without knowing exactly who is in and who is out.

    Booker, for example, could help carve up the vote in SC.

    Sanders, were he to run, would have a built-in "loyalist" constituency that would suck wind from other "Progessives", etc.

    Just really hard to say (right now) with so many potential candidates (Biden, Beto, Booker, Brown, Kobuchar, Sanders, Etc.) who haven't announced their intentions.
     
  6. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bayh is owned by big insurance, and is the worst kind of swamp creature. His dad should be disgusted by Evan's sell-out. Democrats certainly are.

    As it is, the Democrats have an embarrassment of riches running, most of who can thrash Trump.

    Now, who should announce he's not running? Biden. He's like your embarrassing uncle. He's one of the few who could lose to Trump.

    Sanders will probably run, but with so many other strong liberals in the race, he won't go far.

    And no Democrats think Clinton is going to run, so none are holding back on that account.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  7. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Donor

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    Too Many Democratic Candidates
    will dilute the $ $ $
    and rip the party apart.

    They dearly need a "smoke filled room"
    party meeting / caucus to agree to reduce the number of
    candidates to 4 and agree on "the message"
    beyond defeating Trump.


    Moi :oldman:






    :flagcanada: FREE Meng Wanzhou!
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Yup.

    Biden, Beto, Bernie, and Bloomberg should be able to settle things.

    The Killer Bees.

    Then decide on Biden/Harris and call it good.
     
  9. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Donor

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    Biden is a loser who could never inspire the heartland red States
    to become Blue. If Hillary had just won one heartland, rust belt State.
    Biden can't either.

    Nor Beto, Bloomberg.
    Possibly Sanders. If not aged out.
    Sanders inspired multi cultural, multi racial rallies. Not them and those.


    And Harris as VP would be a mistake of Palin Proportions!


    Moi :oldman:






    :flagcanada: FREE Meng Wanzhou!
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Everybody has their own opinions.

    Still, way too early.

    Trump was barely on the radar at this point in 2016.

    Anything (or anybody) is possible.

    Can't rule anything (or anybody) in or out.

    Way too early.

    That said, Biden CAN hold the Clinton 2016 States and win back MI, WI, and PA.

    And Harris is perfectly situated for VP.
     
  11. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not! ;)
     
  12. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    It's too early to predict her percentage in the Iowa caucus (except in a 3-way race against the other 2 official candidates Delaney and Castro
    Harris 48
    Delaney 21
    Castro 21
    That's based on the theory that Hillary got every possible vote any female could get in that state. Bernie's support represented not a love of socialism but a cry for a good real Democratic man to join the race, and most Bernie voters now wish they'd voted for O'Malley to at least let other states have a chance for a real nice Democrat.
    With those 3 in New Hampshire Delaney should win. He alone represents the east coast. They never choose the same winner as Iowa and he'll probably try harder there than Iowa no matter who his rivals are.
    In South Carolina the big question is whether black voters will accept her as black. Her background has nothing in common with those whose ancestors were slaves for 200 years then oppressed for 150 years. Nor can she relate to the black urban dwellers of the northeast. Castro has no natural pull for blacks and might not try.
    The south unites behind the winner of its first primary, so if Delaney limps to victory there he can count on 10 more southern victories and concentrate on the northeast the rest of the way.
     
  13. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I've heard that Sherrod Brown of Ohio is about to announce.
    If you know him, tell him that if he announces soon enough (fourth official candidate) I might say something about him that I won't be able to say if he's the fifth to announce.

    In passing I heard that Andrew Cuomo of New York and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania are not planning to run.
    I wanted Casey in the race if only to define the size of the right wing of the Democratic Party (5, 10, 15%). Now we need Joe Manchin in the race to do that.
    Though I want all 50 states represented we can live without a Pennsylvanian. That state, like Maryland and Delaware, has no personality, nothing that carries over to other states, nothing unique.
    A Pennsylvanian is just a person who lives in Pennsylvania.

    As to Cuomo and others like him:
    Not everyone is fit for the Presidency. If you're not you shouldn't even let people talk about it.
    No one should run for President before he's ripe. That might be at 55, 60, 65. Bernie was pushing it at 75.
    However, if Cuomo and others feel ripe, skip this election, Trump wins a second term, then they suddenly jump in for the vacancy in 2024...
    Those people don't deserve a single vote. They're the worst kind of cowards.
    This is the election the Democrats need to win.
     
  14. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    One recent day I heard in passing that some Mayor somewhere was not going to run for President.
    My thought was that it will get annoying if every 2-bit Mayor who announces he's not running gets mentioned.
    I didn't know he's a 4-bit Mayor (Indianapolis) and was already in the race. No one covered the announcement he was running, knowing he had no chance.
    Because they ignored him, even when listing hopeless cases like Delaney and Gabbard, he realized he really has no chance.
    I won't bother you with his name.
    That leaves Indiana open for their best prospect Evan Bayh. He might do as well as his father-third in New Hampshire.
    Apparently there are 6 more announced candidates you've never heard of, all less qualified that the Mayor of Indianapolis.
    One of them is from England, hoping the Constitution will change this year to make his election legal.
    I need to mention this now because yesterday we had an announcement from someone who might win and is the best choice from his state: Cory Booker of New Jersey.

    New Jersey: Cory Booker

    Everyone has fallen in love with Cory Booker. The Democrats see him as their black knight in shining armor. He really is just another pretty face. In that blue state winning the next election is too easy but can he win the hearts of Americans coast to coast? 2020 is the year to find out.

    Booker turns 50 April 27, sharing a birth date with Ulysses S. Grant. Grant was the third worst President so I guarantee Booker will be better.
    That means he was born in a year I hate but everyone loves.
    When they make a movie about life in the 60s they pick that year. When they write a song about a rock band they pick that year. When they tell a true story about the Moon landing it has to be that year. When someone travels back in time he goes to that year.
    I HATE THAT YEAR. Therefore I have to expect a President born that year eventually to torment me more.
    Booker's been in the Senate since 2013, so he's more qualified than the other announced candidates. Even before that the media was working to make him famous nationwide.
    Can anyone tell me anything about a Mayor of Newark, New Jersey before Booker, even the founder of the town?

    If the race stays as is with no new announcements Booker will surely win.
    I come to this assessment by a few methods.
    The easiest to explain is one-on-one versus the other announced candidates.
    Booker obliterates Tulsi Gabbard so thoroughly she'll probably drop out soon.No one considers her a threat to the nomination. Her only hope was to remain the only ethnic and somehow make minorities of all stripes feel like she's one of them. She isn't and never will be.
    I found out the first debate is June and she might not be invited.

    Booker has every advantage over Kamala Harris. Experience as Mayor is executive level. 8 years in the Senate beats 4.
    Most importantly, he's a real African-American with the deep roots in slavery. He has white ancestors through slaveowners, a more recent white doctor through fornication, Native American blood through ancestors with known names and successful black parents.
    His weak point is that the family was northern black, allowed to vote and go to adequate schools a generation before the south, but he still could reach southern blacks more easily than she.
    I(f she's going to beat him it has to be with a cause, style or substance. If she picks urban renewal, he beats her there.
    He's the antidote to Harris on every point.

    As long as John Delaney is the only white man in the race he can count on about 20% nationwide.
    If Booker can monopolize the black vote he nullifies that.
    Booker's 8 years in the Senate beat 6 in the House and Delaney is far behind in name recognition. Delaney needs a fast start, wins in Iowa and/or New Hampshire plus a long-term plan. Generally candidates like him have no long-term plan, so winning one of the first 2 just extends their misery.
    Booker has a natural advantage in northern states. If ha can add the southern black vote that leaves Delaney the heartland caucus states.
    If Booker has a good plan for caucus states those too are in doubt.

    The most interesting battle could be Booker versus Castro.
    As Mayor of San Antonio Castro is at a disadvantage. He might have gotten as little attention as the Mayor of Indianapolis except that he was HUD Secretary for Obama.
    That probably gives him the best past political ranking of any Mayor now in office, enough to be mentioned, though he is still not regarded as a major candidate.
    Suppose Booker has a plan for US cities. He should if he has any plans for anything.
    In a debate or series of sound bites these 2 can feud the whole campaign.
    Castro will have no choice but to defend his work as HUD Secretary and the Obama administration in general as making US cities a paradise.
    My city didn't improve much but if you added up all the cities in the US and divided by population, would you not find that most city-dwellers in 2016 were happier, richer, safer, healthier and smarter than those living in the same city in 2008?
    Obama had the Mi-touch. Everything he touched did not turn to gold but upgraded in net worth by about 40%.
    If Democrats believe that's true and helped them in some way it would be treason to vote against Castro. Surely 8 more years like that will give cities the DA, an additional 40% improvement.
    Suppose Booker doesn't think cities improved 40% under Obama and says so.
    That would make him a heretic in many minds.
    When the GOP was debating almost everyone could go along with the premise that the W administration was flawed. The few who defended it could do so only in meek, polite terms. The guy who attacked him won the race.
    Will Booker dare to point out the flaws in the Obama administration, openly attacking his representative in the race?
    If he does, the Booker versus Castro votes will represent the consensus of what real Democrats thought about those 8 almost half-golden years.
     
  15. Sahba*

    Sahba* Newly Registered

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    Sounds good, however, the implicit caveat should be recognized that anyone reaching the threshold for candidacy (Article II, section 1) is able to & should run if they feel compelled to do so.
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/2148937?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

    Lol, do you think Trump would have ever had a snowballs chance in hell, within NY, to reach the level of candidacy for dog catcher - under your proposed system... As it turns out, he may go down in history as having the most impactful & consequential presidency of many of our lifetimes (regardless of what 'side' one is on).
     
  16. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    If I'd made a list of 50 Republicans in 2014 I would have picked Peter King for New York.
     
  17. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    It appears Elizabeth Warren is running for President despite new evidence of a lying hypocrisy.
    Someone excused that to youth but she was 37.

    The one good thing about this announcement is it means Hillary will not join the race.
    I've concluded that Tom Harkin in 1992 was not trying to win, just to win Iowa so no candidate would win both New Hampshire and Iowa, keeping hope alive for Bill Clinton.
    In 2016 Warren might have taken that role for Hillary, but they realized she'd still lose to Bernie in New Hampshire and if Warren was second there Hillary might have to drop out.
    So she represents the old bitch establishment wing of the party.
    I see no chance for Warren to win the nomination.

    Considering only the 6 announced candidates I could easily see Warren finishing last in Iowa.
    First of all, she will be expected to win New Hampshire, so anyone who needs good numbers in one of the first 2 states just to get to Nevada will concentrate on Iowa and neglect New Hampshire until Iowa is over.
    At least one of them might drop out then, possibly 2 because it's hard to start so badly then rebound. None of these candidates have obvious southern strength. Only that can keep someone going with any real chance of a comeback.
    Warren's victory in New Hampshire is far from certain and she'll have to work hard there to secure it, so even she might not give Iowa the standard attention.
    Even if she does, she'll gain few votes from warmth of her personality. Her best weapon will be commercials and I doubt she'll tailor any of them to subjects Iowans care about.
    To get her to last means falling behind the longshots there.
    That would be Tulsi Gabbard. I guarantee any Iowan who shakes hands with both Warren and Gabbard will like Gabbard better.
    Her rival for last might be Julian Castro. I have no idea what method he'll use in Iowa or if he'll try hard, saving his strength for Nevada. Still a handsome young man will get votes an old bitch can't reach.

    The most important reason Warren will do badly in Iowa may be the reason Hillary struggled there and in so many caucus states.
    Primaries have secret ballots. In caucuses people go to the corners representing one candidate or the other. In 2016 people could see their friends and neighbors making a deal with the Devil (Hillary), so I think a lot of them yielded to peer pressure and went to the Bernie side.
    In this case the devil is not obvious, but peer pressure remains, especially among the women.
    I have a feeling that with 2 or 3 women on the ballot the vote swing in any given room might quickly change from 24-16 to 32-8.
    So if Harris, for instance, was noticeably ahead of Warren in any precinct, the gap may end up 3-1.
    Of course Warren could win some precincts that way too. However I suspect she'll visit only the cities, arranging big rallies-including paid guests-and let others take the boondocks. So Harris will dominate most precincts.
    Of course men vote too, but I can't picture too many men picking Warren over Harris.
    Again I think 48% is the limit for any woman and if the trio of females split that it could be 38-6-4 and Warren might be the 4.
    The man most likely to dominate Iowa is Delaney, but could he hammer even Castro to 3%. I doubt it.


    [​IMG]
     
  18. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    With Klobuchar in the race there is no reason for anyone to vote for Warren.

    As the nearest to Iowa Klobuchar is in an excellent position to win the state, or at least be tops among the females.
    With the present lineup of 7 and 25% a possible victory margin she can wipe 2 of these women off the map immediately.
    Minnesotans do well in New Hampshire and have much in common.
    Warren may take the Boston suburbs, but if any woman wins the north, it will be Klobuchar.

    Klobuchar's first battle is to convince the party that anyone from what they consider the most loyal state in the union is worth considering.
    Since they're confident of Minnesota's Electoral Votes they'll not soon consider a Minnesotan for Vice President despite its reputation. Since they consider her Senate wins automatic, she can't say she won against a strong GOP presence.
    Neither can Booker, Gabbard, Harris or Delaney.
    Warren at least unseated a Republican Senator, but in a state so blue he won because his opponent didn't try.

    Bernie and Warren joined the Senate the same day. That makes them comrades in a way others can not become.
    His victory in the Minnesota primary in 2016 kept him in the race. It may have been kind words from Klobuchar that put him over the top there. Of course he swept most of the northwest thereafter including Wisconsin to the east.
    If he endorses her, she gets the knowledge of the caucus system and might tally up over 20 states.
    In this field I could see her getting 40% of the overall vote, eliminating Gabbard in Iowa, Warren after South Carolina and Harris in mid-March.
    If Booker is the last man standing it could be much like 2008.
    If Delaney lingers she can't fail to take the most states as the 2 men trip over each other.
     
  19. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Spooky Next to the ***** grabber Dirty Donald,Joe Biden is a rookie.
     

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