Does the Military-Industrial Complex want war with Russia?

There were also plans to not even use them against personnel at all, but against terrain to make it impossible to cross. Nuking a dam, bridge, or mountain pass would make it almost impossible to pass through an area as the damage would be extensive so a long time consuming detour or repairs would need to be made. And that is not even considering any radiation, just the physical damage to the area could slow down an army by hours to days or more. Not unlike South Korea, which literally has every bridge designed to be blown with only a little prep, and even large pre-staged obstacles across roadways just waiting for the insertion of explosives to bring them down.

Project Plowshare as an idea of using nukes for construction projects was a failure. However, one thing they did learn from it was the ability to use nukes to destroy infrastructure like roads and the like. I know that was also one of the plans for the use of the MK-54 SADM (the "backpack nuke"). They only had a 1kt yield, but placing one under a bridge would destroy the bridge and the approachways for a kilometer or more away.

I know a lot of the plans in the event WWIII kicked off between East and West Germany would have involved such actions. To try and slow down the Warsaw Pact forces as much as possible and allow reinforcements to arrive from the US and other nations.

 

You're preaching to the choir here. I Commanded an 8' Field Artillery Battery in Germany in the early 80's, My mission, if the balloon went up, (this all came about immediately after Reagan took office, BTW), was to take my six nuke rounds and send them into East Germany, then fall back to reload), and carry on with conventional missions. Those nuke rounds would be fired deep into the east, degrading the enemy's ability to retreat. Meanwhile, other nuclear assets would be used to seal off the Fulda Gap using tactics like tree blow down and more, effectively sealing off the enemy forces. These nukes were usually much smaller, the famous "backpack nukes" deployed by Special Forces. Then we'd just pound them with conventional rounds.

I am (was?) a certified "Nuclear Fires Planner". The main casualty producing component of a nuke is radiation. It is those effects that take precedence when planning nuclear fires. There are three levels of casualty effects (I forget the actual titles)... Immediate Casualties, Delayed Casualties, and "Latent Lethality". Distance on the battlefield is measured in time when planning fires. It was best if you could hit the enemy about two weeks back from the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area). That way he'd be irradiated but wouldn't get sick for awhile. If done right, he'd become incapacitated from the radiation just as he got into the battle (FEBA). It traditionally takes two Soldiers to evacuate one... so you get three enemy soldiers out of the battle for each casualty. Surprisingly, you rarely want to hit the target you want to attack. If you detonate on the target, you don't get this "Latent Lethality" so you aim some distance away. You also have to avoid civilian casualties, so you want to detonate away from towns. finding a point of impact that gets desired results on the target while avoiding as many civilian casualties as possible becomes an art.

Then you add in the variable yields possible. My 8' (M110A2) battery could launch 15 kilotons (Hiroshima size), 7.5 kt, 5.0 kt and 2.5 kt. In those days we had to manually "build" each round for the desired yield. It all went digital soon thereafter.

Then you had to worry about the altitude of detonation. As a rule of thumb, if the fireball touches the ground, "stuff" gets sucked up into the fireball and becomes "fallout". A ground burst gives you LOTS of fallout. Such contamination is generally to be avoided. Contamination not only denies access to the area
to your enemy... but to friendly forces too. If the detonation is at the proper altitude, there will be no "militarily significant" contamination. Just an "on-off switch" of radiation, achieving the desired casualties and no more.

None of this is related to strategic nukes. That's a whole different subject.

 

So, Eisencoward was a "left winger."

Seeing how it out-Castro'd Castro and nationalized the disability programs of the 48 States in 1957 under Social Security, maybe you have a point.

Yes, it is. It isn't my fault you don't understand geo-political strategy.

Politicians play no role in the formation of US Geo-Political Strategy, which does include Ukraine. You'd know that if you bothered to read any of your government's publications on the subject which were published several years before the conflict in Ukraine started but after the Obama Administration illegally overthrew the Ukrainian government.

No, it just has a spontaneous fission rate of 20,000 fissions per second per kilogram.

Only if the US goes nuclear first.

What is the half-life of gunpowder?

You do understand that's a trick question, right?

And they would have failed. You smell like you've been reading too many Tom Clancy novels.

Oh, yeah, the 15-year captain.

Six nukes?

It would take your battery 5 hours to assemble 4 rounds in the designated configurations.

Did you forget that you 8-ton trucks have to carry the rounds?

Exactly how much wire do you think you'd need to link your batteries to HHB?

Come to think of it, since you're required to displace at least 1 km, how are you possibly gonna survey alternate sites?

 

Seth Bullock said: ↑
A war with Russia is a nuclear war,...

Russia's third rate conventional forces would be annihilated by the conventional forces of the U.S. military. In a war with Russia, Russia would either have to go nuclear or surrender. It's highly doubtful that Russia would surrender to the United States. That's why they have nukes, and that's why we cannot have a war with Russia.

 

Whatever in the hell that is supposed to mean.

Not as much as you may think. It all largely depends on how it is stored.

But in general, in storage it is good for about 2 decades. Then it needs to be pulled from storage, inspected, tested, and maybe even "stirred" because of clumping issues. That is actually a big part of any ordinance depot, removing random ordinance according to a schedule and inspecting it.

But theoretically, with proper storage and handling modern powders have an almost indefinite shelf life.

Actually, there was nothing even close to that in any of his novels. It was briefly discussed if I remember in Red Storm Rising, but never implemented. But that is from memory, I don't think I have actually read that book in around 3 decades.

That's what RSOP is for.

And in a location like Germany there were multiple sites already surveyed and laid in. Just as there were various depots and emplacements already prepared and waiting.

But in combat conditions, RSOP is normally already scouting out and planning the next location before the current one is fully occupied. Once the primary equipment is emplaced they are already preparing to move out to the next location.

 

Russia is more likely to go nuke first. He's in decline. He's desperate. America isn't.... although internal forces are trying.

I was a Captain for 6 years.

Yup, assembling those rounds takes hours... which we had time to do. Conventional fire missions are usually IMMEDIATE. Firing a nuke takes much more planning, many more tasks and reliance on other elements than your own battery.

The trucks were 5 tons. An artillery battalion has three "firing batteries", one "service battery" and one "headquarters battery" The "service battery" has plenty of trucks to carry ammunition, food, water, and all the rest. What's your point?

We used wire for internal communications... FDC to guns, etc. Artillery moves too often and too fast to use wire comms to Battalion. That was all radio.
I was constantly RSOP'ing in the field. (Relocation and Selection Of Position) AS the battery carried out firing operations, I was out getting the next position ready. I'd take a member of each gun crew, an FDC rep, and most of my Comms Section. We would go to the new position where I would walk with my guys, pointing out where each gun would go, and where the FDC would be placed. Then my guys would prepare each location by determining how to lead in their vehicles, laying wire, and so forth. When the battery arrived a member of each section would be waiting to lead them in. Everyone was ready to repeat this process at a moment's notice. Full up survey was rare. But I could do a "hasty survey" with an aiming circle whenever required. And at night we always had "Kochab and Polaris". (This was before the days of GPS and GCCS which automated the whole process. It should be noted that everything that happened in the FDC was manual in those days too... long gone. But "gunnery" is coming back with the threat of battlefield EMP emerging.)

Pardon me, I can talk about my beloved artillery all day...

 

Actually, we still do not use GPS as part of RSOP. We still do it 100% "old school", with pace counts, M2 aiming circle, the Mk 1 eyeball, and an honest to god Inertial navigation device that we strap on the hood of the HMMWV from the 1970s.

Things like GPS only come into play once the equipment is emplaced and fully functional and used as a double-check.

 

No longer a stalemate. The collapse of Russia's front is near at hand.

 

Another prediction from you! How near is "near at hand?" 6 days? 6 years?

 

After Prigozhin's abortive coup I estimated he had two months to live. That was pretty accurate so I'm feeling confident. I'll let ISW describe the battlefield situation. Bottom line: Russians are running out of options.

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced to tree-line positions that are east of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are a part of a tri-layered defense immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian light infantry has also advanced further into a series of prepared Russian defensive positions along the road that runs northwest into Verbove.[2] Other geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Russian defensive positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).[3] Ukrainian forces are widening the breach they have already made in one Russian defensive layer and are reportedly maneuvering more equipment and personnel into tactical rear areas of this layer.[4] Ukrainian forces appear to be making gains in the immediate vicinity of the not-yet-breached Russian defensive layer that runs northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) with infantry assaults and heavy artillery fire on Russian positions further into and south of this layer.[5] The deployment of Ukrainian heavy equipment and more substantial forces to these areas than ISW has so far observed would indicate both a breach of this Russian defensive layer and an effort to widen that breach.

Russian forces reportedly attempted to expand minefields in southern Ukraine following the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported that the Russian command determined at the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that Ukrainian forces might be able to easily breach the Russian doctrinal minefield depth of 120 meters leading Russian forces to aim to increase the depth of their minefields up to 500 meters.[6] RUSI stated that Russian forces lacked enough mines to mine these larger areas as densely as Russian doctrine dictates, causing Russian forces to deviate from doctrine, including by using improvised explosive devices and a wider and differential distance between mines.[7] RUSI stated that Russian forces tried to compensate for decreased minefield density by increasing the effectiveness of anti-tank mines by placing two on top of each other.[8] Ukrainian operations across several sectors of the front have likely further compounded these constraints on the Russian effort to expand minefields by forcing Russian forces to disperse their mining efforts along wide sectors of the frontline. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated on September 3 that minefields near the next series of Russian defensive positions in western Zaporizhia are less dense than the initial defensive layer that Ukrainian forces advanced through.[9] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces may encounter denser minefields at certain sections of subsequent series of Russian defensive positions, however.[10]

Limitations on Russian artillery capabilities and Ukrainian advantages in counter-battery fire are forcing the Russians to deviate from their own doctrine, RUSI reported. RUSI stated that Russian forces have been attempting to adapt their fire doctrine since before Ukrainian counteroffensive operations began.[11] RUSI noted that Russian forces are attempting to prioritize strike accuracy over volume because they lack enough ammunition to sustain doctrinally designated artillery fire, have difficulties transporting a large volume of ammunition to frontline areas, and are seeing diminishing effectiveness of mass strikes as they lose counterbattery radars and their guns suffer from barrel wear.[12] RUSI stated that Russian forces are attempting to increase the production of Krasnopol laser-guided shells and the use of Lancet drones (loitering munitions) in order to increase accuracy and reduce the number of munitions used in attacks.[13] RUSI also observed that Russian forces have often prepared their fighting positions for remote demolition with improvised explosives instead of striking their own positions with artillery after Russian forces have withdrawn, as Russian doctrine dictates.[14] These adaptations suggest that reduced Russian artillery capabilities may be further weakening the Russian defense in certain sectors as artillery fire is a critical component of the Russian elastic defense. A shift towards more precise fire doctrine may allow Russian forces to strengthen these capabilities, but constraints on Russian training capacity will likely prevent Russian forces from implementing this shift at scale in the near term. Russian sources have continually claimed since the start of the counteroffensive that the Russians lack sufficient counterbattery capabilities on various sectors of the front.[15] Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Commander Colonel Margo Grosberg reported on September 1 that Ukrainian artillery capabilities are “equal or even better” than those of Russian forces and have been able to push Russian artillery units back from the frontline, preventing them from supporting Russian forces.[16]

 

Last year you said that Ukraine would push the Russians back to the pre-war borders by December 31, 2022. I just want an update on that prediction.

 

No more dates, but Ukraine will prevail. For the Russians, the end will come like Hemingway's description of going bankrupt:
"Gradually, then suddenly.” We're in the gradual phase now.

 

Heh, yes very gradual! We're in the third month of THE counteroffensive.

 

Stay tuned.

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023
Sep 5, 2023 - Press ISW



Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions northwest and west of Robotyne, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced into an area near the settlement that Russian forces previously claimed to control. Additional geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows that Ukrainian forces have also advanced south of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove (about 10km east of Robotyne). Geolocated evidence of Ukrainian forces northwest of Verbove suggests that Ukrainian forces are advancing along the line of Russian fortifications that runs into the settlement. Ukrainian military sources also confirmed that Ukrainian forces have been successful in the Robotyne—Novoprokopivka directions south of Orikhiv, and further reported that Ukrainian forces are pursuing successful offensive operations south of Bakhmut.

 

You really need to look at the map that accompanied your article.

Notice the blue areas.. Not much to show for three months of the counteroffensive to end all counteroffenses.

 

As I said, stay tuned.

 

I've stayed tune all summer during the counter offensive.

I think this is the best they've got, unless you thank there another eight or so Storm Brigades tucked away somewhere in reserve.

 

I'm uninterested in your forecast.
Ukraine Committed One Of Its Reserve Brigades to The ...

Forbes
https://www.forbes.com › sites › davidaxe › 2023/07/20


Jul 20, 2023 — “A robust Ukrainian reserve force lies in wait to be committed at the optimal time and place of Ukrainian choosing,” U.S. Army general Mark ...

 

Photos that “prove” it: Russian attack hits NATO member country (msn.com)

Well, it looks like Ukraine, at least, is trying to get NATO involved. We may have just found a possible trigger for a war with Russia. We just have to wait to see how much NATO is itching to get into a fight with Russia.

 

Just a comment... Tonight I watched a very interesting show on the History Channel. It addressed the subject of false reporting by the media. It went all the way back to the Civil War where dead bodies were often posed for battlefield photos. Remember that famous photo of the construction workers casually sitting on a girder eating lunch on a New York City skyscraper under construction? It looked like they were hundreds of feet in the air... but other photos reveal that there was a floor, not in the photo, about two feet under them.

It seems the media has been publishing phony photos for a long time.

 

Lol, I'll complete it for you: U.S. Army general Mark Milley.

I absolutely understand why you would be uninterested in my forecasts, but I quite enjoy yours! They've been comedy gold!

So don't stop predicting...

 

We shall see.