DOW down over 800 points as world markets fall.

You here are no signs of recession.
Things will get bad when people start to be getting laid off.
I can’t imagine a recession with unemployment under 4%.

 

Just because investors in secondary market were spooked by incoming German recession doesn’t mean the US is having one.
Recessions start with mass layoffs. Wake me up when we have them.

 

Yes they are currency manipulators but what does calling them that do for us. That does not bring jobs back to the US.

 

Different scenarios. Comparison is flawed.

 

You just going to make stuff up are you.

 

No I’m not.
Do you understand what recession is?
Stock market cannot cause a recession.

How does economy contract? When people are losing their jobs they don’t spend as much, local businesses immediately feel the impact by having fewer sales, which on nationwide level leads to drop in GDP.
That’s exactly how previous recession started.
A stock market drop doesn’t mean sh!t.

 

Work week hours have been shortened,manufacturing and farming are both already in recession.

 

I call bullsh!t!

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Manufacturing gains jobs.
Average weekly hours dropped by 0.1, just 6 minutes. Considering it’s July, no one is surprised that people take some time off.

 

May I spoil your good mood just a little?

Not a single Conservative has decided to drop his support for the president Trump as a result of today’s market fall.

I’m sure you believe it’s because of Deplorables stupidity... so be it

 

Grump is raving about the recession warnings, and trying to blame the Fed, and everyone but his own policies.

 

Economic conservatives never "supported" him beyond temporary, lesser-of-two-evils, convenience.

 

If anything, I am much more worried about what is going on in China.

A lot of manufacturing is out of China now. And if things get ugly in Hong Kong, expect International sanctions, and a lot of companies pulling their business out. It happened last time things got ugly there in 1989, but the trade then was a fraction of what it is today.

I find it funny that most I hear are talking about things that have actually been going on for a while now, but this claim of "Recession" only happened at the same time that things are getting ugly in China.

 

It is a very strange scenario in Germany. The economy is slowing down, but the employment market is still red hot and companies are desperate to employ. It is a strange up and down in the machine industries order books, one month up one month down.
Some has to do with Brexit. But mostly it has to do with the trade war
I always said the German economy can not run at that level for a very long time, because it ran out of qualified workers 2 years ago.

But that has nothing to do with the trade wars, which are killing the world economy and that will effect everybody. But with one problem, the US has not been able to make its very good economy into a money maker, opposite its deficit has reached a new high and Germanies has reached record lows and they have around 100 billion in the savings account ( Federal, if one adds states, towns and counties it nearly reaches the Federal annual budget ).
Recession I when a economy has negative growth, not employment.
Germany can afford, maybe needs, a soft recession, to catch up with the employment market, like taking a deep breath or a short rest after a very long and hard run. Even the mass immigration of 2015 could not solve this problem. Nearly 2/3 of those Afghan and Syrian are now employed and tax payers and have gone through German apprenticeship system to become certified in their profession.
By the way a very seldom mentioned success, a joint venture Industry and Government. Industry leading and Government providing

The US is a completely different picture.

 

Recession means, that companies have less orders and have less profit, first, than come the lay offs. The US economy is slowing down, but is still working off the high. The slow down continues, the lay offs will start. If Trump continues his trade war, the world economy will keep on slowing down and we in the US will pay for it, even more than now.

 

And depending on how things in Hong Kong, this may be entire moot and nothing the President does will have any meaning whatsoever.

 

The proof of that be in the next elections, won’t it be?

 

For economic conservatism? No. Trump's lack of economic conservatism has already been proven.

 

No, for no Conservative changed his mind about president Trump as a result of today’s market fall.

 

Then the "conservatives" you are talking about are a cult of personality that never cared about economic conservatism. Pretty sure I predicted that a long time ago.

 

That is true. Rand Paul said US does not have a conservative party when Republicans are in control, and that is evidenced by the currently economic policies (out of control spending, trade manipulation, bail outs, etc)

 

High unemployment can go with some mild recession if the problem is in exporting companies - as those are generally larger businesses they can run for some time at a loss. Problem is, by the time a country is in official recession businesses already were having a drop in sales for at least 6 months and the shareholders don’t like seeing negative numbers. When CEOs start to panic they lay off more than they need to. Usually, if you have a crappy quarter, you might as well just take a full crap at it. That’s what triggers mass layoffs.

Do you know where to find fresh economic data for Germany, like the one I quoted earlier? Would be interesting to see a breakdown of their unemployment report.

 

What Trump is doing can cause a recession in China. If that’s the case then the stock market will be very swingy during the transition.
I don’t mind China suffering if eventually we come out on the top. Trade with China should definitely become more reasonable, even if we will suffer a recession while getting there. This would ultimately improve trade deficit as well.

As for Germany saving money - they are fools - you don’t just stash cash around. That’s why their economic growth was so stagnant.

Recession is caused by unemployment.

The US has lots of educational programs too, as well as incentives for people to change their professional profile.

 

Economic conservatism is an oxymoron. I dunno what it is. Ima just a Conservative with no labels attached.

 

Jobs? You want US unemployment be better then 4% ?