Gallup is indicating the largest lead for Mitt Romney, whereas only polls show a comparatively tighter race. This statistical outlier, henceforth, is due to a variety of factors, most likely the bias of the sample. This is not a jab at this one Gallup poll. The fluctuations of their polls over the past few weeks begs the question as to their credibility. Of course, other polling outlets are equally deserving of questioning.
Wait a minute. Laying back is the main reason liberals advance. Roaches survive unless you relentlessly apply the right force to push them back. I think we are always in such a situation. How else did we find ourselves where we are today?
You wanna talk about oversampling? Look at the polls out of Ohio. We are seeing polls with a D+9 advantage where Obama/Romney are tied yet Romney is winning independents by 19 points. The funny thing is, while exit polls suggest there was a D+7 advantage in 2008 in Ohio, actual vote tallies suggest an advantage of +4. Ohio was a state Obama only won by 4. Even if he gets the same turnout this year he's still down by 3. And he ain't getting that. Romney is going to win, hard.
I'm not surprised that a Republican would prefer to feign ignorance. It certainly is in keeping with GOP dogma.
A war would be when the US was defending the homeland. It isn't. It seems you cannot tell the difference between that and deliberate attacks on other countries to ensure your military businesses continue to reap the dollar benefits at the expense of military casualties.
You aren't voting in this race, your opinion is meaningless. I'm genuinely concerned about what your country is doing to protect its resources, because if you are incapable of such you will need us to do it for you sooner or later...
I think we will suddenly see Romney Camps of poor souls who are suddenly rendered homeless by the Romney economy.
We need to start a pool of exactly how quickly the liberal hypocrisy will spring forth on a Romney win. I'm guessing one week after the election Code Pink is out in the streets protesting Afghanistan, and the news covers every single death from inauguration day onward... Worse, liberals won't even notice the blatant hypocrisy and defend it...
Because the election is only 2 weeks away, and the candidate with 50%+ mid October always goes on to win.
http://www.politicalforum.com/current-events/205021-predicted-obamas-approval-rating-hits-38-a.html I actually created a thread I guess got deleted to address that I was wrong.
This poll is statistically a outlier, but nevermind that for a second. Look at the electoral college, if each candidate won the state they're up in the RCP averages today, Obama would still win. That includes Colorado and New Hampshire for Romney as well, which many analysts believe will go for Obama come election day. The electoral college is all that matters, and really, Ohio is all that matters this year once again.
I would not say that. Some polls are comparatively more reliable than others. However, polling is inherently biased, as samples are often chosen to convey a certain viewpoint among the public. Due to the relative reliability of some polls over others, I use Real Clear Politics' aggregate poll, which averages out the results hundreds of polls from eclectic sources.
Actually, RCP's electoral college map has Romney winning by 5 electoral votes: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html Statistically speaking, anything less than +5.1 percent Romney or Obama seems to be a toss up, although I may be wrong.
I meant state aggregates and the candidate that was up in each today. I'm no statistician, but if you look at the polling trends in the battlegrounds, that's what matters, and the aggregates don't have an MOE. Romney is up in the solid state count, although the contentiousness of some states is way overblown. PA, MI, NV, IA, and WI are all trending Obama and have been for some time, RCP's model just wont call them "lean" blue states even though Romney has rarely led any of the polls in those states. To me, it seems like the only actual toss up states right now are Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, i'd be willing to bet money on the winner of every other battleground.
And yet, even the Daily Kos/ SEIU poll has Romney up by two: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week You can't get more liberal than that.
There is no such thing as a guarantee in politics, and the independent voters may not matter as much as base turnout. That was certainly the case in 2004.
Margins of error would be of greater assistance in projecting winners of toss up states. Nevertheless, I am willing to conclude that Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, go blue, and Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa are true toss ups. I can speak upon experience in terms of the contentiousness of Virginia. Millions of dollars worth of advertisements are pouring into the state and surrounding areas. As an international relations major and a prospective interdisciplinary studies in government major at the most politically active campus in the United States, I can say that the amount of politics and political debates inside the beltway is overwhelming.
