Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

Then stop touting the current El Nino as a sign of anything.

 

That is what scientists do. It is not what propagandists who are pushing the CO2 climate narrative do. The latter cherry-pick results that support the CO2 climate narrative and use political methods to suppress results that refute the CO2 climate narrative.

 

Like the man said, please stand by.
UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2024: Delayed
February 27th, 2024

Due to a recent hardware failure affecting most UAH users of our dedicated “Matrix” computer system, the disk drives are having to be repopulated from backups. This is now in progress, but I am told it will take from “days to weeks”. Complicating the delay is the fact we cannot do our daily downloads of satellite data files from NOAA, and it will take time to catch up with special data orders. I will post updates here as I have more information.

 

El Nino continues.
UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2024: +0.93 deg. C
March 2nd, 2024
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2024 was +0.93 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the January, 2024 anomaly of +0.86 deg. C, and equaling the record high monthly anomaly of +0.93 deg. C set in October, 2023.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land).

A new monthly record high temperature was set in February for the global-average ocean, +0.91 deg. C.

 

Interesting how the rate sea-level rise keeps accelerating in the "cooling" climate.

Such a thing would be impossible if the climate was actually cooling.

But rather than admit that climate is warming strongly, deniers will claim that the sea-level data is also all faked. It's conspiracy turtles all the way down.

 

Sorry, I live in Colorado. Not getting cooler here, but we did have a good year for precipitation.

 

Interesting how you consistently claim sea level rise keeps accelerating when it doesn't. And climate was cooling for several years until the sun became unusually active a couple of years ago and La Nina gave way to El Nino.

No, I already explained why that is false: sea level rise is largely due to isostatic rebound of continental shelf areas that were glaciated in the last ice age. A good example is Hudson Bay, where the shoreline has risen several meters in historical times. The water displaced by the rising seabed has to go somewhere. You merely refuse to know all facts that disprove your CO2 climate narrative.

It isn't, and there is no credible empirical evidence that it is. Arctic sea ice extent is roughly the same as it was 80 years ago. Such warming as has occurred since the Little Ice Age is consistent with similar century-scale warming episodes that have happened many times in the past.

That's just another bald fabrication on your part. The sea level data show no long-term acceleration. That was just another false claim on your part.

<yawn> If there were no such things as conspiracy kooks, conspirators would have to invent them.

Oh, wait a minute...

 

Can I call it, or what? I said the knee-jerk response would be to invoke a conspiracy theory, and I was correct. Not that it's hard to call. That's always the response of the deniers. Reality contradicts their religious beliefs, forcing them to invent a new reality.

Anyways, sea level ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
---
Between 1901 and 2018, average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), an average of 1–2 mm (0.039–0.079 in) per year. This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022

That theory fails to explain the accelerating sea level rise, so it is wrong.

Sea level isn't just rising. It keeps rising faster and faster. That can't happen under the "It's really cooling!" theory, so that theory is wrong.

Isostatic rebound is countered by the opposite in other areas, isostatic sinking. Mantle material is finite and incompressible. If it moves into one area, it moves away from another. If one area rises, another has to sink. So, on a global scale, it's a wash as far as land displacing water goes.

Anyways, had any luck with your pseudoscience outside of SafeSpaces?

No? None at all?

Well, clearly that means you need to step it up and invoke even more conspiracy theories. Please proceed.

 

No, you can't. All you can do is make $#!+ up.

No, I didn't mention or imply any conspiracies. That was a bald fabrication on your part, which you are now compounding by falsely claiming that I invoked a conspiracy when I did no such thing. You quoted me, and then simply made self-evidently false claims about the words you had just quoted. Inevitably.

That is another fabrication on your part to paper over your previous fabrications.

Wikipedia is William Connolley's personal anti-fossil-fuel hysteria blog, and has zero (0) credibility on climate-related topics.

That is absurd cherry-picking with no scientific credibility.

Sea level rise is not accelerating, so hypotheses based on the assumption that it is accelerating are wrong.

No, that claim is objectively false, like almost everything you say.

Because it's a theory you made up.

No, you merely do not understand any of the relevant physical principles, and almost certainly never will, because you blankly refuse to know all facts that disprove your CO2-climate religion. Isostatic rebound is not a wash for sea level because the volume of solid land above sea level is not constant. For example, if a formerly glaciated continental shelf area of 1Mkm^2 rises by 1m, that is 1Kkm^3 of sea water displaced elsewhere, increasing sea level; but if the region that subsides in consequence is all above sea level, or consists of vertical coastal geography, there is no compensatory reduction in sea level. Think of it another way: if there were no continents and all the land was evenly distributed, it would all be under 2km of ocean.

Again, I did not invoke any conspiracy theories about sea level. You simply made that up, as readers can confirm for themselves.

 

In the Newspeak of AGW, cooling = warming.
New Alarmist Definition Of A Region’s ‘Rapid Climate Change’ Is A Slight Cooling Trend Since 1960
By Kenneth Richard on 7. March 2024

A -0.005°C temperature change over a span of 60 years in northern Pakistan (Himalaya region) is ostensibly having “adverse impacts in multiple sectors.”
The first sentence of a new paper’s (Khan et al., 2024) abstract claims:

“Hindu Kush Himalaya region is experiencing rapid climate change with adverse impacts in multiple sectors.”

But in the body of the paper itself the “rapid climate change” is specified as a -0.0047°C mean annual temperature cooling trend from 1960 to 2018.

The title of the paper indicates there have been “increasing extremes” in precipitation in recent decades, but, again, the long-term (635 years) precipitation reconstruction reveals there have been a lack of any obvious wet or dry trends over many centuries.

Even if there were increasing extremes in recent decades, this could not be linked to “climate change” or “global warming” because, as noted, the climate has been slightly cooling in this region. So the “adverse effects” also cannot be linked to anthropogenic global warming either.



Image Source: Khan et al., 2024

 

As my ongoing point is that you use conspiracy theories to instantly discard any data that contradicts your religion, I thank you for confirming that point once again.

Keep on preaching to the choir. I mean, look at how effective it is. You're having such a massive impact. Keep it up.

 

The fact that William Connolley (and more recently a handful of other anti-fossil-fuel scaremongers) have edited all Wikipedia's climate-related content to exclude all facts that disprove the CO2 climate narrative is not a "conspiracy theory," it is a plain fact, and a few years ago, Wikipedia was even sufficiently ashamed of it to stop him from doing it for six months. Even the language in the article you referenced is self-evidently grossly biased, with not even an attempt at scientific impartiality.

 

Cooling will resume soon.
El Nino's Collapse Has Begun

The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.

El Nino impacts have included low snowpack over Washington State, huge snowpack and heavy precipitation over California, and warm temperatures over the Upper Plains states.

However, El Nino's days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now.

First, consider the critical measure of El Nino: the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area). The warmth of this El Nino peaked in late November (about 2.1°C above normal) and is now declining fairly rapidly (currently at roughly 1.3°C above normal).


But the cooling is really more dramatic than that: a LOT of cooling has been happening beneath the surface! . . . .

 

There's lots of cold to go around.
Unusual Cold Plagues Both Northern, Southern Hemispheres….Arctic Sea Ice Strengthens
By P Gosselin on 24. March 2024

What follows are excerpts from EIKE

Unexpected snow in Saudi Arabia
In the desert of Afif, west of Riyadh, it snowed unexpectedly, both citizens and tourists were shocked.

The significant drop in temperatures was expected with strong north-westerly winds making it even colder. Last year (2023), parts of Saudi Arabia saw its first snowfall in 100 years.

Bolstered by the increasing snowfall in recent years (and despite the “devastating effects of climate change”), Saudi Arabia is working to improve its mountain tourism with its own ski resort to be built by 2026.

Freezing Australia
This past week, the Australian continent saw temperature anomalies of up to 28°C below the multi-decadal norm, affecting large regions:



GFS-2m temperature anomalies (°C) March 20 – 26, 2024 [tropicaltidbits.com]

–57,9°C in Greenland

Temperatures in Greenland have fallen sharply as the thermometer in Summit showed -55.1 °C on Saturday.

On Monday it got even colder, falling to -57.9 °C, That’s about 15 °C below the seasonal norm.



Link: https://electroverse.substack.com/

The exceptional cold in the far north has contributed to Arctic sea ice extent to be above the average for the period 2011-2020, and is rapidly approaching the average for the period 2001-2010.


Chart: https://electroverse.substack.com/

Obviously the Arctic is surprising the experts, who warned that sea ice there was supposedly in rapid decline.

Unusual, record-breaking cold in India

Intense cold persists in Indian cities like Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Chandbali, Paradeep and Baripada, which are experiencing record-breaking low temperatures. On Wednesday, many places in the eastern state of Odisha experienced the coldest March days ever. In Bhubaneswar, a maximum temperature of only 19.2 °C was recorded yesterday, breaking the previous record of 24.3 °C by a whopping 5°C!

In northern India, snow from the north is bringing down temperatures in the lower latitudes in central and southern India. In many cities, including the eastern metropolitan cities of Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Chandbali, Paradeep and Baripada, record low March temperatures were recorded, beating benchmarks from the 1970s and beyond.

Record low in New Zealand
In the southern hemisphere, where summer has come to an end, the temperature in Whanganui, New Zealand dropped to 4°C on Wednesday morning, the second lowest March temperature in the town’s history. The lowest March low of all time was recorded on March 28, 1985 (solar minimum of the 21st cycle) at 2.5 °C.

New lows recorded in Australia
A severe cold snap has hit southeastern Australia. In the mountains of New South Wales, there was frost in the Perisher Valley with temperatures as low as -5.7°C. This is only 1.4°C above the national record for the month of March. Thredbo recorded -4.4°C. Cooma also recorded an impressive -1.9°C.

In Mt. Hotham, Victoria, the national record was missed by just 1.2°C, at -3.1°C. Monthly records also fell in Omeo, Victoria: on Thursday morning, the temperature of -0.7°C was a whole 1°C below the previous record (2021).

And in Cleve, South Australia, the temperature of 6.8 °C also exceeded the old record by 1 °C (yet to be confirmed).

Temperature in Antarctica plummets to near -68°C
On March 21, the seasonal minimum at Concordia dropped to -67.7°C, from -67.4°C on March 20.
Antarctica is cooling, the data is clear…

Full report (in German) at EIKE here:
Compiled by Christian Freuer

Also see: electroverse.substack.com/

 

There's cooling in this forecast.

The extraordinary climate events of 2022-24
Posted on March 24, 2024 by curryja | 53 comments


by Javier Vinós

The unlikely volcano, the warmest year, and the collapse of the polar vortex.

Continue reading →

1. What can we expect in the near future?

The unlikely volcanic eruption is the likely cause of the extraordinary warming, which in turn led to the occurrence of the unprecedented three SSW events. Our understanding of the effects of these events supports this interpretation.

Historical data on the warmest years suggests a high probability that 2024 will again break the temperature record, similar to what happened in 1877-78, 1980-81, 1997-98, and 2015-16. However, if we have correctly identified a major cause of the warming as the Hunga Tonga eruption, we can expect that as the excess water vapor exits the stratosphere, it will induce a cooling effect at the surface, potentially lowering temperatures for the next 3-4 years. Studies such as Solomon et al. (2010) have already shown the negative impact on global warming of stratospheric drying. We should see the reversing of all the warming caused by the Hunga Tonga volcano.

In addition, other factors affecting temperatures, such as the decline in solar activity after the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a future shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to its cold phase, could contribute to a large pause in global warming. Using the 2023-24 temperature as a reference point, we could even see some cooling in the coming years. These are indeed interesting times in terms of climate dynamics.

 

El Nino topping out.
UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2024: +0.95 deg. C
April 2nd, 2024
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2024 was +0.95 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up slightly from the February, 2024 anomaly of +0.93 deg. C, and setting a new high monthly anomaly record for the 1979-2024 satellite period.

New high temperature records were also set for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.88 deg. C, exceeding +0.86 deg. C in September, 2023) and the tropics (+1.34 deg. C, exceeding +1.27 deg. C in January, 2024). We are likely seeing the last of the El Nino excess warmth of the upper tropical ocean being transferred to the troposphere.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . . .

 

It's cooling in Tokyo.
Tokyo Says “Sayonara” To Warmer Winters…40-Year JMA Trend Shows COOLING!
By P Gosselin on 3. April 2024

Tokyo winters have in fact cooled (slightly) over the past 4 decades…
Charts by Kirye

The December 1 to February 29 meteorological winter ended and the latest data for the mean winter temperature are available for Tokyo and its island Hachijō-jima.

Looking at the mean DJF winter temperature trend for Tokyo going back 39 years using the untampered data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), we see a surprising trend: NO WARMING!



Data source: JMA.

Moreover, the average of the last 10 years have been colder than the two preceding ten-year periods.

Rural Pacific island Hachijō-jima: no warming in 75 years!

Next we look at the latest mean winter temperature trend of the rural Tokyo island of Hachijō-jima, located in the Pacific – some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo – where there is relatively little temperature data corruptive concrete and asphalt like we have in Tokyo:



Data source: JMA.

Winter mean temperatures on this Pacific island haven’t risen in over 75 years, this according to the meticulously collected and tabulated data from the JMA.

We can suspect the news is also similar at other locations across the northern hemisphere, if you don’t look at data that’s been tampered with by NASA.

Of course, few argue that the surface of the globe as a whole hasn’t warmed over the past decades, and that man hasn’t played a role. One thing is 99.99% certain: there is no “climate crisis” – just lots of junk-grade, foul science behind the ridiculous claim.

 

It's getting colder down south.
Antarctica Is Colder, Icier Now Than Any Time In 5000 Years. The Last Warm Period Was 1000 Years Ago.
By Kenneth Richard on 15. April 2024

More evidence emerges that Antarctica has undergone rapid glacier and sea ice expansion in recent centuries, in line with the long-term and recent Antarctic cooling trend.
West Antarctica’s mean annual surface temperatures cooled by more than -1.8°C (-0.93°C per decade) from 1999-2018 (Zhang et al., 2023).

Not just West Antarctica, but most of the continent also has cooled by more than 1°C in the 21st century. See, for example, the ~1°C per decade cooling trend for East Antarctica (2000 to 201 shown in Fig. ES1 (right).



Image Source: Zhang et al., 2023
According to a new study, about 6000 years ago Antarctica’s Collins Glacier’s frontline was a full 1 km southwest of its current extent. The frontline advanced to today’s extent ~5000 years ago.

“Previous studies proposed that 6000 yr BP, the frontline position of the Collins Glacier was located 1 km further south west than the present, and that the current frontline was first attained at approximately 5000 yr BP.”

The glacier then continuously retreated south of the modern extent for another 4000 years, with peak ice loss 1000 years ago (as shown in the 1000-year “Proglacial lake environment” image). In the last 1000 years this glacier has rapidly re-advanced back to the glaciated extent from 5000 years ago, which is in line with the sustained cooling trend ongoing since the Medieval Warm Period.



Image Source: Piccini et al., 2024
Throughout the Holocene (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, and earlier) and until a few hundred years ago (from ~7100 to 500 years before present), coastal Antarctica’s Victoria Land (VLC) was substantially warmer than today. The Ross Sea was also sufficiently ice-free to allow for elephant seal populations (as large as ~200,000 individuals) to thrive at 73-78°S.

Today, however, elephant seal populations – which require extended sea ice-free sea waters to breed, forage, and provide nourishment for their pups – can no longer subsist anywhere even remotely close to the coasts of the Antarctic continent. It is now too cold and the sea ice is too extensive.

The substantially reduced number of remaining elephant seals existing today can only survive on subantarctic islands (South Georgia, Macquarie) at southern South American latitudes (~54.5°S) situated 2400 kilometers north of VLC (Koch et al., 2019).

The “genetically distinct” VLC elephant seal populations that endured throughout the Holocene and even through Medieval times have tragically died off in the last few centuries due to the modern-era cooling gradient and subsequent ice cover expansion (Hall et al., 2023).

“Across all sites, there is a precipitous drop in the number and geographic extent of the SES [southern elephant seals] remains within the last millennium”

“…the documented population crash and abandonment of the entire coast by SES after ~1000-500 yr BP was due to return of heavy sea ice”



Image Source: Hall et al., 2023
And with the modern sea surface temperatures cooling and southern hemisphere sea ice expansion in recent decades, even the subantarctic islands in the South Pacific that SES are limited to occupying today may not be sufficiently warm and ice-free to accommodate remaining populations. Today’s southern elephant seals are thus ironically threatened by cooling in the era of anthropogenic global warming.

“[P]ack-ice expansion (both duration and extent) in the Ross Sea over the last several decades has been linked to reduced female foraging in this region, consequent low weaning weights and survival of pups, and ultimately the decline of the Macquarie Island population.”

Interestingly, Hall et al. also report that not only have the last few centuries (including the present) been “the coldest, iciest conditions in the post-glacial period” (see the blue sea ice and red temperature trend lines on the Holocene timeline), but even the last glacial period had periods (~50,000 to 25,000 years ago) with less sea ice than today, allowing SES to occupy the VLC coast.



Image Source: Hall et al., 2023

 

What "accelerating" seal level rise?? What fantasy are you trying to push?

 

The alarmist narrative increasingly relies on cherry-picked data.
L A Times Cherry Picks & Misrepresents NOAA Climate Data to Exaggerate March 2024 U.S. and Global Temperature Outcomes
by Larry Hamlin
The reality of climate alarmism is that the “hype (not heat) just keeps coming” resulting in huge and unnecessary increases to California and U.S. electricity costs creating economic hardships for…


The NOAA March data clearly shows that maximum temperatures across the contiguous U.S. have been consistently declining since March 2012 – a highly significant point which is unmentioned in the Times article.

This NOAA measured historical U.S. March temperature data behavior, as shown above, does not support “the heat just keeps coming” hype in the Times article.

 

So I read over Hamlin's essay, and the referenced LA Times article. But I am very confused over Hamlin's methodology.

1) The premise behind much of Hamlin's complaints appears to be related to the LA Times usage of average temperatures. So for instance, it cites this from the Times:

Hamlin indicates the LA Times does not utilize readily available NOAA data as pictured above, and follows with:

The article clearly indicates it's using average as evidenced by stating "The average temperature in the contiguous U.S. was 45.1 degrees — 3.6 degrees above average." Hamlin indicates this does yield March as the 17th warmest based on averages. How therefore is the article deceptive in this respect? What makes maximum temperature measurements a better tool to determine trends than averages?

2) Beyond this question, further down Hamlin gets into accusing the LA Times of providing the global average temperature anomaly but concealing that temperatures vary throughout the world:

However, this appears to misrepresent the whole purpose of the section discussing March in the US. Specifically, the LA Times stated that:

This section is clearly intended to show that not all parts of the globe are experiencing record average temps. Hamlin goes on to show a number of graphs of other places in the world (besides the US) that also are not having record average temps in March. Although curiously he skips over the parts of the world that are having record high averages. Ex:







Further, I do not understand why Hamlin ignores the ocean entirely. It is clearly discussed in the LA Times article, but dismissed from his essay:

71% of the Earth is covered in water. It seems bizarre to dismiss over 2/3 of the planet from your temperature measurements when attempting to discern whether or not the planet is warming as a whole. Why should the ocean not count?

3) Finally, Hamlin insists that using the average global temperature measurement is not useful. Specifically:

I do not understand this logic at all. Plenty of things go into the temperature of a given day, week, or year of a given region besides CO2 levels in the atmosphere. How does that at all make using a global average temperature not useful to determining an overall trend as to whether or not the globe is heating or cooling?

In summary, I have these questions:

1) What makes maximum temperature measurements a better basis for determining trends than averages?

2) Why dismiss ocean temperatures entirely?

3) Why so much focus on individual regions instead of the global average temperature as a whole?

 

If you're going to make a claim about "the hottest" this or that then by definition you have to cite the maximums.

 

If you are saying "hottest month", "hottest year", "hottest decade", etc, you are by definition using a unit of time that needs to be measured out over a far longer period than one instant can capture. The term "hottest" does not suddenly disqualify the time measured.

Similarly, if you were measuring the "fastest 800m", "fastest 1500km", "fastest 10k", you wouldn't measure it by the maximum speed someone ran at some random point in time during the race. The term "fastest" does not immediately dismiss the distance covered.

 

Apples & oranges. A fastest time is a total. A hottest temperature is a standard.

 

Even looking back at your older posts, it seems like your sources use the term "warmest [unit of time]" backed by averages. See for example:

#307
#343
#349

Would you kindly point out where the standard for "hottest month" is defined then? I am finding only sources that reference averages.