1. Japanese only recently has started to restore its army which was forbidden after the WW2. Its military are nothing copared to China and Russia. The main power that stays after Japan is the USA, but it is still a question if the USA would start to fight for Japan if something happened. 2. Russia needs less than a day to occupy all the Baltic countries. And the only response that is possible after all the sanctions imposed at the moment is again war. WW3. 3. The political decision to start WW3 in case of a russian aggression would be very and extremely... somewhat unpopular. So there is no a direct link between an attack on Japan and WW3. There is a direct link with the attack of Hawai or Alaska or San Francisco and WW3. Probably an aggression against Panama channel would also trigger it. But not Japan. 4. The US is not the best ally which also keeps its word and protects those who received guarantess till the last breth. And it's not about Georgia. Vietnamese people who were not at the side of vietkong also no longer like americans. Because they had to withdraw leaving these people for Vietkong's mercy just because of demostrations and some unrest. These people fell betrayed. And I think it is possible to understand their feelings. US hasn't supported the muslim brothers which received help during a previous coup in Egypt. US turned down their support of Saudi princes and Israel for the moment also doesn't fancy new approach of the US towards Iran. So I wouldn't be so quick and 'delusional' to send US marines against Russia and China in a hypothtical war. 5. The start of war makes sense only if it is possible to control the territory after the invasion. Crimea is safe, because the referendum there was a true reflexion of people's will. The same is happening in the east and there is a possibility that it will happen in the south. But central and western Ukraine is not supporting Russia that much. If russian troops come there it wil be required to perform anti-terrorist missions and finally ake a regime of self-governance that will suit the majority like Russia did it in Chechnya. That is the main reason why Russia and China don't invade Japan. Japanese people will rise up and their position would in turn be close to mine. It is me and a japanese citizen who protect Japan more than american alliance. If we follow your logics. What would we see? You tell that it is natural that stronger army is winning after the weaker. Fine. But why haven't NATO regimes already sent their troops to Ukraine? You are wure that Russian army is smaller than even the japanese forces that don't exist completely! It's either or. Either NATO forces are so overwhelming or it is NATO forces that prevent evil Russia to invade its allies all around Russian borders. With my logics stated above everything has a logical explanation. - NATO is stronger on the whole, but it doesn't invade Russia, because it wouldn't be able to control russians. - Russia and China are stronger then Japanese, but they wouldn't be able to control them. - US and EU made a mistake once they thought that they can take over in the Ukraine and that is why there is the crisis when former ukrainian citizens refuse to obey puppet leaders. Do you have a better explanation? You are welcome.
You really don't have a clue. The Japanese air force would make short work of the Russian air force and the same goes for the Japanese Navy. Your claim that Japan has only recently begun to restore its military shows how completely ignorant you are. - - - Updated - - - Long before Russian forces would reach the Baltic shores they would have been destroyed by NATO air forces, for which Russian air forces are not a match.
I doubt they need persuasion. NATO is BS, and so is Ukraine as it still stands. Ukraine is a former part of Russia and still has a lot of Russians. I think it is their business what they do, and most definitely NOT OURS. We we we... I will have no part in it. I doubt the EU will, either.
National security always trumps economic well-being in Moscow's – and Putin's – world. - Of course, national security (specifically, the security of the ruling powers) trumps ALL in the USA.
I only know about the quantity and the power of foreign military from open sources. I don't have an access to a secret information. So I mostly use highly accessible sources as wikipedia for instance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Air_Self-Defense_Force JASDF, is the aviation branch of the Japan Self-Defense Forces responsible for the defense of Japanese airspace and other aerospace operations.[2] The JASDF carries out combat air patrols around Japan, while also maintaining an extensive network of ground and air early warning radar systems. The branch also has an aerobatic team known as Blue Impulse and has recently been involved in providing air transport in several UN peacekeeping missions. Patrols, radars and transportation units. With all my respect their task is to perform a signal to the US that their destruction has started. Do they have any chance to wipe out Russian military? In a reasonable world - not a single chance. But maybe they have a powerful land army? Let's see. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Forces#Military_branches JSDF, occasionally referred to as JSF or SDF, are the unified military forces of Japan that were established after the end of the post–World War II Allied occupation of Japan. For most of the post-war period the JSDF was confined to the islands of Japan and not permitted to be deployed abroad. In recent years they have been engaged in international peacekeeping operations.[6] Recent tensions, particularly with North Korea,[7] have reignited the debate over the status of the JSDF and its relation to Japanese society.[8] New military guidelines, announced in December 2010, will direct the Jieitai away from its Cold War focus on the Soviet Union to a focus on China, especially regarding the dispute over the Senkaku Islands/ Diaoyu Islands. So you see that Japan has NO army. It has only a self-defense group of almost civilian people. And only recently (because 2010 is quite recent) they started to improve their self-defense to play war games with China and Korea... And there is no sign that Japan would be even setting a task of wiping our Russian military. Russia started to rearm from its eastern region. And it happened not later than the decision to rearm was adopted in Japan. So the governments were getting ready for war for 4 years already... Surprised? I will eagerly listen to any info or a decent direction to a better information to improve my ignorance. Because for me the words: "I am sorry. I was wrong." are quite respectful. Everyone makes mistakes. Which exactly? There less than a dozen of old fighters in all the Baltic countries. The range of the fighters's operation is not that long. You need to pay for the speed. I understand that NATO forces exceed Russian. And in case of a NATO invasion it will be probably more difficult to us than in 1812 or 1941. But a conflict with NATO involves nuclear war and weapons of mass destruction. If the West leaves only one chance for Russia then it is worth considering. Noone can tell what will the world look like after the mutual nuclear blows. Btw the estimation of time that would be required by Russians to occupy Baltic countries I took from the oficial estimation of the ministry of defence of Latvia. If you want I can look for a link.
I guess you must be really ignorant. Japan has (and has had for many decades) very large numbers of the most advanced fighters and fighter-bombers, not to mention a very large fleet of advanced combat ships. Its ground army is well-equiped but not extremely large, but that is logical considering it is an Island nation. It would take very little time for NATO air forces to swoop down on any Russian forces tryong to occupy the Baltic countries. The idea that war with NATO automatically involves nuclear weapons is ridiculous. NATO can easily wipe out the Soviet air forces, air defences and navy with its conventional superiority, at which point Russian ground forces are pretty useless. No invasion of Russia is necessary for that.
to Me too, as you liked of analyst from Thomas Graham This excellent analysis clearly shows that all of your attempts to influence the Russian government are meaningless Each of us will run in a different direction and anothe the region, we are completely independent of each other, it is good
Combat ships? Advanced fighters-bombers? Where is it? I see F-15s which are about to be written off and plans... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#Aircraft_inventory cf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Air_Self-Defense_Force#Aircraft_inventory I think that the words: "sorry i was wrong" are too difficult. Interesting. This is how it SHOULD be. Because a civilised army of 'good guys' should be well-equipped platoon that is ready to fight arachnids from space every other second. And asian barbarians should be big in numbers brutes wielding hammers and an ugly smell from teeth... Sounds logical. But the reality is completely the opposite. Compare articles in Wikipedia. Russian army is changing to 'kontraktniki' system for more than a decade and is decreasing in numbers almost twice. But the level of the money and new equipment coming to it has grown several times comparing to 90s. As for japanese self-defense (it is NOT an army from the very beginning) they are big in numbers (because they calculate those who CAN serve) and there is no structure and heavy weaponry. But still I would like to remind that this is quite enough in order not to be attacked not only from Russia, but also from China, which keeps on warning everyone around about the unacceptable attitude with chinese territory from the side of NATO allies for decades. Of course it sounded funny 20 years ago. But with the growing power of China I wouldn't be as calm if I was a NATO general. There is no sign that China would attack Russia. But with the continuation of the west growing weaker and China growing stronger at some point they can make an absolutely reasonable move that will receive support from the chinese people. So you wouldn't even perform a reconaissance about the position of russian anti-air missiles complexes like S-500 which will definetely be a part of invasion if it tok place? I would rather trust latvian generals' estimation. As I said the ground forces of Russia are probably the weakest point. The strongest is anti-air complexes. If you remember there was a big fuss when Russia first contracted and then refused to deliver Iran our S-300 anti-aircraft missiles which is one generation before the newest one. The reason was that with S-300 US aircraft couldn't expet any of his taken off planes to return. That was very serious for US. More serious than the whole ukraine with Baltic countries altogether. Because Iran is somewhat closer to US vital interests than Ukraine. That is why Iran is trying to get these systems at all costs and Russia has to refuse of an extremely good business. So there is no need to be afraid of american aircraft. They are only dangerous to african and arabic countries. If Serbia agreed to purchase the SAMs it wouldn't go that bad for them. But they preferred to economise some money on it. The problem is a possibility of the nuclear strike of USA that would disorganise Russian troops and invasion of a really outnumering horde of 'young' NATO force whose fathers were serving mostly for Soviet bloc army. That would be a problem. As for performing an attack and to protect of NATO conventional forces - it is quite a challenging but possible to perform task for our military. No matter what you believe... At least the danger of this superiority is as real as the danger of a superior according to you and non-existing in reality japanese army to wipe off russian military.
Seriously, you don't know what you're talking about. In no recent conflict has it taken Western air forces very long to wipe out Russian-designed air defence systems and Russian planes are consistenly outclassed by Western planes. Your ideas about Japan are really ridiculous and display complete ignorance and inability to even read what is readily available in online sources. Fortunately for Russia, Putin is not going to be so stupid as to engage Japan or NATO because he full well knows this would destroy Russia as a credible power and basically make it very vulnerable to China and others. He is trying to restore Russian strength, not trying to throw it away by the sort of suicidal policies you seem to believe in.
OK. Whatever. But there was no russian designed SAMs in any country that was invaded by NATO. It was in Yugoslavia. But this deisign dates back to 1960s was truly outdated. Therefore even this metal scrape of soviet origin managed to take down a stealth bomber. As I heard here it happened because the plane was flying the same root and there was moon in the sky... This is a fact. There were no russian SAMs in Libya or Iraq. There were however some rumors that some of Russian systems were sent to Syria. As far as you can remember the red line after that rumor was never crossed, which made Obama-haters to grow quite sceptical about his ability to feed their blood-thirstiness with some fresh meat of exotic nationalities. I still have no idea of what are the formiddable air forces in Japan. F-18 used to be a super plane for 80s. It still remains a good choice and is capable of performing various tasks. But for some reason USA wants to replace it with F-35. And there is still zero quantity of this planes in Japan. And finally finally. I used the example with Japan only as an illustration of what is considered to be a real principles of realpolitics. As I said a state shouldn't invade a different state if it is not able to control it even if it is possible. US made this mistake several times. I hope noone argues that NATO power exceeds all the war potential of Afghanistan for centuries and miillions of years that this territory exists. But still NATO fails to control it and to restore a peaceful life there. It's bad that you haven't found the courage to admit some of your mistakes. But it is not my problem. Thanks for discussion.
Fortunately for Russia Vladimir Putin is more realistic than you and less eager to make his country implode.
The real conflict we're facing is an economic one. Russia is threatening our reserve dollar and our influence over the rest of the world. Our rulers don't want to be in the hot seat if and when this economic house of cards collapses.
I'm don't know will be this translated the correctly But it is very funny Putin has shamed the U.S. State Department for reading other people's letters Russian President Vladimir Putin called the " strange " Washington's reaction to the letter sent out by European leaders on the situation in Ukraine. The Head of State noted that " to read other people's letters is not good ." Putin's announcement was made at an operational meeting with members of the Security Council of Russia . Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reported to the president that the order to send the message leaders of European countries that receive Russian gas through Ukraine fulfilled. "Yesterday, all our ambassadors in their respective countries brought these messages to recipients . All accepted this treatment seriously, and promised to consider rapidly prepare a response . Hopefully it will be constructive . Reaction from Europe so far, as I said, this pre- " - quoted Lavrov press service of the Kremlin . The Minister also spoke about the reaction of Washington , which has already voiced against this background. " State Department spokesman stated that Russia should not politicize the gas deal with Ukraine should stick to market pricing , and called that now we set out to our European partners , gas blackmail " - Lavrov reported to Putin. "It's a bit strange ," - said the president. "It's strange , firstly because it is not good to read other people's letters , I do not write them . I wrote our consumers of gas in Europe . We're all accustomed to the fact that our American friends are listening all but pry quite ugly," - said Putin . After this remark Putin recalled that the formula that produced the gas price is fixed in a formal contract between Russia's Gazprom and " Naftogaz of Ukraine " in 2009. "Since no change in the price formula was not" - summed up the head of state. On the eve of Putin sent a message to the leaders of the EU countries. It reminded the president that in recent months, " Ukraine's economy is rapidly deteriorating ." According to him, Russia " and should no longer alone can not bear the burden of supporting the Ukrainian economy." The head of state warned that " Gazprom will be forced to switch to prepay gas supply in case of violation of conditions of payment wholly or partly supply the gas." " In other words, will be delivered exactly as much gas as the Ukrainian side will be paid for the month ahead . Certainly, this is an extreme measure," - said the head of state. In his message, the President proposed to hold urgent consultations " with the aim of coordinated action to stabilize the economy of Ukraine and to ensure the supply and transit of Russian gas ." http://top.rbc.ru/politics/11/04/2014/917467.shtml Putin recalled U.S. wiretapping scandal and reproved: pry is bad http://www.unian.net/world/906912-p...ushkoy-i-pojuril-podglyadyivat-nehorosho.html
At the end of the day the US will do virtually nothing for the Ukraine. We have no real ties to them, we have no real history with them, and there is no interest by the public to get involved in some Eastern European problem with little or no foreseeable gain for the US...
Japan's post-war pacifism has prevented it from having a fully-fledged army and Japan's defence spending is less than 1% of GDP and its constitution restricts the country's military capabilities so that Japan would not invade its neighbours. For example, Japanese destroyers are not equipped with the Tomahawk cruise missile and any ballistic missiles are out of reach of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces, which also do not possess an aircraft carrier. To protect the disputed islands from a possible Chinese invasion, the SDF appointed new naval infantry units, which did not even exist until last year, but the US Marines stationed in Japan would have to intervene on Japan's behalf when the Senkakus are invaded by the People's Liberation Army because Japan's pacifist army is not ready for a shooting war.
What should have been done to stop the US from invading Iraq? What should have been done to stop the US from invading Afghanistan? etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., ad infinitum....
Yes we can. By understanding that a revolutionary act by 'Russia' (the fear propaganda and 'preparations for war' with areal images from tanks and planes (deception) are going to put fear in millions of European people, this fear will cause poltical change (change in attitude (more into the defense) in millions, means organisation of millions) So if you have the right knowledge, you are not going to organize. Don't move, because movements are created by fearful propaganda and poltics.
We did it the funny ,hysterical ,jovial ,impotant Democrat way which is putting us on the verge of unrest and possibly war so it's time to put Putin back in his mother's basement and send in the 6th Fleet. It's amazing how fast we can quite things down when you stick to your guns.
First of all, why should we stop someone else? To stop is not the right strategy [and to say all, to stop is a bit to deny our own basic philosophy of existence]. We don't have to stop Russia. We have to compete with Russia and to make Moscow realize that they are not in condition to win a real competition with the West. How to do this? We did it already during the Cold War. It's simple: we [the so called "Free World] need a new American leadership. Unfortunately it seems that this administration is not able to lead the West to the competition, not only against Russia, but also against Chine [which is today the regional power controlling de facto Russia, Putin has "sold" his country to Beijing].
I believe the US should (1) resurrect plans to place defensive missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic (over Vladimir Putin's apoplectic objections) and (2) supply the Ukrainian military with RPGs instead of MREs--in addition to other advanced weaponry, with which to repel a Russian invasion, and decisively defeat the Russian military.
Why ? Why should want to stop Russia. Why is whatever Russia is doing the business of Where are the Euros? It is time for them to stop hiding under the skirt of Lady Liberty and defend themselves economically and militarily. Remember, they couldn't be trusted to fly missions over Libya because they crashed their jets into each other. So had to do it, again. Either way, the American tax payer pays for the fuel, hardware, training, etc. Or most of it. It does not matter one iota what Russia and Ukraine do to the security of California. And no threat to security certainly means no intervention can be supported. I find the whole premise of this thread off base. All I am saying, is give non intervention a chance. (could be a song there) Interventions have not been successful have they? So America's best intervention is logically no intervention Moi No
We can't say they will. Reviewing history, Russia has supported and occupied 4 separatist states. Crimea was unprecedented, as it was the first outright annex since the break up of the soviets. I assume they'll do what they did in Georgia and Moldova. Fund the rebels, let them gain de-facto independence, recognize them, and occupy that place under the condolence of the illegal country. A lot like Abkhazia at the moment. Well, obviously we have three options.............. 1. Physical war 2. Economic war 3. Diplomatic war Its quite obvious that the US would win a military war, but we can't use force due to warhead possession. With the state of Russia's air force and navy, I am confident that Britain could defeat them with minimal casualties. Russia has a lot of land, so there budget goes entirely into their army. With proper basing, you could win a war without ever touching ground. We are attempting an economic war, but its hard to do damage without mass support. Currently our strategy is obtaining oil from places that aren't connected to Russia, and refocusing our pipelines, to lessen the severity of applying sanctions (They have raised the RSM, but plummeted the GDP growth to .80). East Europe is in a frenzy to make sure that Ukraine doesn't turn off the pipes, although, Russia said that move would have "consequences". As for a diplomatic warfare, we have already kicked them out of 8 or so international organizations. Unfortunately, they remain a part of many organizations. Like kicking them out of the Council of Europe? Come on, the only reason countries still belong to it, is because it makes them look bad for leaving. Russia gets kicked out? They wanted that. Of course, although proper preparation should be taken. Ukraine and Georgia were allowed to join NATO in 2008, but Russia warned that, once again, there would be severe consequences if they took the deal. But we should tell them that any military occupation of Ukraine's territory will be seen as a threat to the NATO alliance, and we will be forced to significantly increase NATO forces in The Baltics, Romania, Poland, and Slovakia. Russia exports minerals and oil. 85% of their economy. There is simply not enough oil into the world to completely become dependent from Russia. There are several trade deals that would work. For example, trade agreements with Venezuela and Angola should be looked for on the western behalf.[/quote] I don't know. Were already sharing nuclear weapons with Belgium and Turkey. If nuclear was does happen, then I doubt anyone will win. We have enough deterrence as it is. Now is no time for another cold war. Disarmament is a international goal. Then make sure the Ukrainian support act doesn't pass. It seeks to make Ukraine another Israel or South Korea.
"Well, obviously we have three options.............. 1. Physical war 2. Economic war 3. Diplomatic war " No, Non, Nyet, Nein The Fourth Option is do Nothing. Or to put it a more significant way, the two options are 1) Intervention, by the three suggested means above 2) Non Intervention. Be aware. Gather intelligence. And stay out of it. America's record of intervention hardly has a shining star since South Korea. Maybe Grenada. Certainly the economic war on Egypt backfired. The supported flare ups in the Arab Spring and Ukraine's government by putsch polarizing the world into "us" vs Russia + China. The suffering by physical, economic, human, national unity destruction of Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya are America's leavings. There is a great argument for Non Intervention. And if Europe wants to stand up on its' hind legs, bravo, don't hold them back. Nor Israel. Non Intervention means let someone else carry the load, the costs, for a while. Non Intervention means we don't pay for it either. Their fuel, hardware, manpower, funds. In conclusion, Non Intervention was omitted by your interventionist bent analysis. Non Intervention would leave America in a better place to get along with the "after realities". BTW weapons to the Muhajadeen turned Taliban turned out to be a real winner for America, huh? Moi All I am saying, is give non intervention a chance <sing along> Invade Canada It's Closer http://www.oocities.org/theanticanadapage/ FACT: 80% of Canada's population is located on the border of the United States. OPINION: Canada may invade the United States at any given moment. FACT: Some Canadians speak French. OPINION: Canadians speak French so that Americans can't understand them. FACT: Canada is the second largest country in the world (After Russia). OPINION: Canada feels the need to become the largest country in the world. FACT: Canada has maritime boundary disputes with the US. OPINION: Canada will try anything to increase its size. FACT: Canada's population growth rate is higher then that of the United States. OPINION: Canadians are trying to over populate the world. FACT: Canadians have a longer life expectancy rate then Americans. OPINION: Canadians may not be human. FACT: In Ontario (the province that is home to the capital of Canada) it is now legal for women to go topless in public. OPINION: Canada is sliding down the slippery slope of immorality and plans to drag the USA along with it. Need more motivation?
