Finally we are going to vote ... take a seat and enjoy the show of the Italian electoral campaign. This fight will be feral ... as usual, but this one will surprise us all because of numbers ... Which numbers? Financial numbers. Politicians are promising to cut taxes, to increase minimal pensions ... to create a "citizenship salary" [if you are Italian citizen the state gives you a salary ... even if you don't work ... ] This time it's about policies which can cost between 20,000,000,000 and 50,000,000,000 euros to our poor treasure [already struggling to sustain our giant public debt]. The main competitors: Right-Center [Forza Italia, Lega ...] Leaders: Berlusconi, Salvini, Meloni Candidate: it's still not clear ... Left-Center [PD ...] Leader: Renzi Candidate: Renzi ?????? [5 Stelle] Leader: The Web Candidate: Di Maio The system is proportional so that it's really probable that, since the 3 main competitors are not compatible among them, we won't have a government soon after the elections. This will means hidden negotiations and at the end an odd marriage [PD + Forza Italia].
The situation is quite fluid. The left [PD], after a couple of years of great kudos, today is suffering a bit; Berlusconi and the Right-Center are recovering, but there is the Movement 5 Stelle [created by Grillo, a Comedian] which is the great question mark [the polls say it will be the party with more representatives in the new parliament. If 5 Stelle won you will see a very different Italian government and the country could change of its policies in a relevant way.
What are the main factors voters seem to be concentrating on? Are there some real burning issues in play or is it just a "popularity" contest.... if you get my drift?
They will be very emotional elections: Italy is living a great problem: Illegal immigration from Africa. And EU has left us substantially alone to absorb the great quantity of the migrants reaching our Southern coasts. This is generating a deep and furious debate here and it gives force to Right parties. Example: for the first time the Lega [former "Lega Nord"] runs all around the country and without that "North". It's presenting itself as a national force ... [not a long time ago it presented secessionist components ...], but its xenophobe background is coming out in a strong way [the candidate to become governor of Lombardia has said that the "white race is endangered". From the left and 5 Stelle there have been easy criticisms ...] But the problem is there. An other eternal problem here is welfare. The parties are promising that they will find the resources to do all and the contrary of all [citizenship salary, higher minimal pensions ...]. About this the Right-Center prefers to promise lower taxes [and there is who suggests a flat tax].
Sounds depressing like the UK. I understand that there was a new electorial system impletemented which was opposed by MS5 does this work against their movement?
PD tried and modify the Constitution, but a popular referendum defeated the Government [and Renzi resigned]. Then they have modified the electoral law. Actually the present law favors coalitions, while MS5 runs alone. So ... I've found an interesting WIKI page [in English], with the electoral trends [opinions] in Italy in the last years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018
The most sensitive aspect of the new electoral law is that the 37% of the representatives will be elected with a majoritarian system, but where the coalitions can have only one candidate [this means that more parties will sum their votes]. Since M5S runs alone, they should obtain an extraordinary result to gain a good number of those representatives.
