Latest Rasmussen Poll: Biden 48/Trump 36

Democrats are going to have a bad November.

 

So are Republicans and Independents if trump keeps doing dumb **** like encouraging states to open up on the same day that the US hit a new single day record for covid cases.

 

Well, stay in your basement like Biden. Its your choice what to do. If you are frightened to death of the Wu-Flu then isolate yourself, wear a mask, etc.

 

I worry about covid-19 because it has already killed more than 120,000 Americans and significantly harmed hundreds of thousands more.

I worry about covid-19 because the person tasked with protecting those Americans has managed to convince a significant percentage of his supporters (although it is a small percentage given the amount of supporters that showed up to his Tulsa rally, rofl) that this virus is not something to be concerned about and that they are justified in mocking the people who do take the virus seriously.

I do not worry about covid-19 because I think it is likely to kill myself, my wife, or my toddler. I worry about covid-19 because it is extremely contagious and is much more likely to kill my loved ones who are elderly and have pre-existing conditions.

 

I don't think 2020 will be as much about Biden as it is about Trump. For the first time in history or since Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of candidates favorable and unfavorable ratings, 2016 was the first time we had both candidates with over 50% of all Americans viewing them unfavorable. Trump at 60% unfavorable, Hillary at 56% unfavorable. Barry Goldwater back in 1964 held the previous record for the highest unfavorable at 47%. The dislike factor in 2016 was so high, people were voting for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. In the end we did have 6% of all Americans vote third party against both major party candidates. That's high when compared to the past when in 2012 1.5% voted third party, 1.2% in 2008 and 1.0% in 2004.

2020 may be a repeat of that, but not so bad. Trump is currently seen unfavorable by 57% of all Americans vs. Biden at 49%. So neither is liked at this point. Biden a bit less disliked than Trump. Compare the unfavorables for the last few elections.

2016 Hillary Clinton 56%/Trump 60% unfavorable
2012 Obama 37%/Romney 43%
2008 Obama 36%/McCain 35%
2004 Kerry 40%/Bush 39%
2000 Gore 41%/Bush 38%

Fact is that every presidential candidate since Eisenhower when Gallup and Pew Research began these rating, everyone with the exception of Goldwater in 1964 had a favorable rating of above 50%. Goldwater was at 43% favorable, then in 2016 we had Trump at 36% and Hillary Clinton at 38%.

One other item of note, the candidate with the highest favorable and lowest unfavorable won every election since IKE with the exception of 2016. But in 2016 Hillary did win the popular vote by 2 points. So 2016 deserves an asterisk.

 

Essentially, we're given pretty much crappy choices for President who turn out: Well, crappy. Since history is a guide as well as Biden's actions(essentially already talking against a second term, and his Palin-esque pick to "appeal" to women), we're essentially electing a lame duck to transition to 2024.

Hopefully, by then, with some luck we get some good candidates.

 

One can hope. Hopefully Biden will pick a young, experienced VP which isn't way out there political ideological wise and groom her for 2024. Then it will all depend on who the GOP chooses. Four years out, it's basically impossible to speculate on who that might be. The two I thought would be the best picks for Biden, Masto and Klobuchar have taken themselves out of the picture. I'd say that Biden's choice as his VP is probably as important as the Democrats choosing Biden himself. I'm all set to vote for old Joe, that is depending on who his VP choice is. If it's someone way out there like Warren for example, I'll probably vote third party once more as I did in 2016.

 

We're the opposite on the VP pick. I think Warren adds experience but also isn't going to keel over. I also noted Murkowski if Biden wanted to choose a "healing" ticket, who could appeal to centrists as well as Liberals(Murkowski has a surprisingly pro-left record for a Republican.) It makes too much sense, as how I predicted Obama would choose Garland.

But who knows with Biden. NPR speculated Kamala Harris, who I see as a racist demagogue who puts Trump to shame on that department. If Kamala, I'm voting Trump as I believe Kamala has no place in the WH.

 

The only time that happened, Lincoln choose Andrew Johnson, a Democrat as they ran on the National Union Ticket. Not the Republican one. McCain played around with the idea choosing Joe Lieberman before going with Palin. McCain probably would have had much better luck with Lieberman. Not that he would have won, the recession doomed any chance he had.

Warren is way too left for me. She doesn't do Biden any good getting to 270, he's going to win every state in the Northeast with or without her. Harris is in the same boat as not helping Old Joe get to 270. California is going blue regardless. Who cares if Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes?

As a numbers guy, this is why I thought Masto the best pick. She ensure Nevada stays blue, she helps in Arizona and in Texas. Masto probably would put Arizona into the Democratic column and against the odds, add Texas. Klobuchar would keep Minnesota blue, few knew Hillary won Minnesota by a single point in 2016 and she would help in the Midwest, especially Wisconsin and Michigan. All with the idea of helping get Biden to 270, not so much for ideological balance.

Regardless, besides being way too far left, Warren is old, 71 I believe. I think Biden needs an younger person discounting the far left ideology of Warren. 2024 will be time for a new generation to come to the fore. Much like JFK replaced those presidents born prior to 1900 and Bill Clinton replaced the WWII generation presidents. I think Biden needs to choose someone to replace the baby boomer generation presidents. Although outside of a state or two, the VP pick usually doesn't count for much. But with Biden's age, his pick will have more meaning this year than in elections past.

The first rule in picking a VP should be to do no harm. I believe the choice of Palin hurt McCain and the choice of Quayle hurt G.H.W. Bush in 1992. Not so much in 1988. Of course there was that joke floating around with the Dukakis/Bensen ticket vs. the Bush/Quayle ticket. Do I vote for Dukakis and hope he dies or do I vote for Bush and hope he lives.

 

Harris is a LOCK for the VP.

In EC Terms, Biden's Worse Case is around 300.

 

We will have plenty of opportunity coming up to figure out Biden. I believe three debates this year. I'm kind of curious.

Personally, it should tighten back up by November. Be interesting in the swing states. This is the year to take texas.