More ethnic and religious conflicts now than ever?

China is attempting to build a Blue Water....Ocean Going Naval Force but China is far, far behind the U.S. Militarily and as the Chinese are pragmatic....they bide their time.

Germany and France want to be the LEADERS of a UNITED STATES OF EUROPE....but the problem is they don't want to share power with the other poorer states...unlike in the 50 U.S. States where any American from any state can run and win as long as they have good ideas.

This whole ISIS thing is short term....and if not....Europe needs to get off it's ass!!!

Russia and Putin....well he pained himself in a corner.

U.S. needs to make serious changes and cut the spending....but we are so far ahead Economically, Militarily and Technologically....even China admits it is many multiple of decades behind.

Everything depends upon the most recent Low Temp Micro-Fusion Trials.

AboveAlpha

 

Hell, China is even far behind Japan, who has not really had a "Navy" in over 60 years. Or Russia, who has never really had much of a navy.

The problem with China is that they think having the ships makes them a "World Power". Kind of like Iran and North Korea, who think simply having a Nuclear Weapon makes them a "Superpower". Heck, Israel has had those for about half a century, but nobody considers them a "Superpower".

The problem with most ethnic and religious conflicts is that they happen in areas that nobody really cares about. Notice all the Europeans who proudly proclaim that they have not had a conflict in their continent since the end of WWII. But mention the Greek Civil War or the conflicts in former Yugoslavia, and you get a quick distancing saying that those do not count.

I actually do not see any rise, because the areas where these types of conflicts have been having them for hundreds if not thousands of years. As long as peoples continue to see themselves as members of a tribe-ethnic group-religious group, this will continue.

Iraq is a perfect example of this. A lot of people are seeing ISIS at work. But that is really only because they are mostly trying to recruit the larger and more powerful tribes, and encouraging them to attack tribes they have been fighting with for thousands of years. The only difference is who is supporting them, the conflicts are nothing new.

For a good example, look at Tikrit. The stronghold of the al-Bu Nasir tribe, it is now home to the organization Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order (JRTN), which is allied with ISIS. This organization is mostly composed of Bu Nasir tribesmen, and is led by former high officers in the Ba'ath Party. It also is so strongly opposed to the current government that they refuse to take any part in it, until it is overthrown and the Ba'ath Party is restored to power.

 

Sure you know, but building ships doesn't mean anything. Sailors and logistics does. Technology and build quality is also more important. Currently the Chinese are nowhere near even the French in terms of technology, build quality, sailors or logistics. Let alone Japan, Britain or the US. China is about on a par with Russia on build quality and technology, plus maybe logistics given the operations they have undertaken so far. The fact is though that they have the two best navies in the world right next to them Japan and the US they could sustain 100 ships and submarines, China couldn't manage more than a dozen. If you are the Philippines, Viet Nam or even Singapore you are somewhat worried if Japan and the US don't want to help you.

The French are gone in the EU. They can't contain the Germans or even attempt to dominate the Low Countries, let alone the EU. Germany dominates the EU, however it can be constrained and manipulated in foreign affairs by France and other countries like Poland, UK and Italy. So this is where France is trying to constrain German power and force it to stay in the EU as its population goes down. Rather than using its vast economy to build a military and join Russia in an alliance against Poland and France. The US and Britain will also have an important role in this. Within the EU and NATO Germany is just a economic power, outside them Germany can be whatever it wants to be, scary if your Poland or France.

I think ISIL is good. It brings together Turkey and Iran, against Saudi and the other Gulf states. In the Northern corridor of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. If Iran or Turkey can dominate it they dominate the region and Arabian Gulf. Iran has power at either end of the corridor because that is where the Shia population is, Turkey or Saudi has power in the middle where the Sunni population is. After the US got rid of Saddam it removed a block to Iranian power and they took advantage. Syrian civil war was Saudi and Turkey trying to regain than advantage. Then you have the Russians coming in and supporting Assad to weaken Turkey and the west. So it is a long hard slog not unlike the Lebanon civil war over the entire Northern corridor fueled by Iran, Saudi, Turkey, Russia and west. I don't see a winner until one of them is willing to use its military to force the issue. Only Turkey has a military with the logistical capabilities and possibly the political will to do what is needed. My guess is ISIL will end with Turkey cutting their lines between Iraq and Syria with air strikes and a couple divisions, then Kurdish, Iranian, US, Iraqi and Sunni tribe forces pushing ISIL back into Syria to continue the war against Assad which all the actors where happy with until ISIL broke out of Syria.

 

Very good post Shroom!

You are one of the very few members here whohave a clue as to what is going on on the ground.

I AM HOME!!!

WE MADE IT!!!

I have not been this happy to get back from...well....2 JOBS in a row....since Africa.

The girls who take care of my pooland plants and home took care of me and I swam in my pool, took a shower.....and hund in the Hot Tub but I STILL am finding places where super fine sand in on me!!!

AboveAlpha

 

Your right....China is not much of a Naval Threat to anyone and any attempt...China actually planned toInvade Taiwan in 2007 or 08.....but we convinced them otherwise....any attempt by China to Invade Taiwan would result in the complete and total devestation of all Chinese Naval Ships, Installations and Troop Carriers.

We are told...NEVER to discuss SUBS but in this case it is OBVIOUS the massive U.S. Navy Sub Force and U.S. Air Force would sink every Chinese Invasionary Troop Carrier or War Ship before it got within 200 Km'sof Taiwan....most would never make it out of the Harbors or Docks.

ISIS or ISIL....whatever.....will be eradicated in Iraq by us and others and then Assad can dealwith themon his own.

AboveAlpha

 

Well, a lot of that is probably because first and foremost, I am an Infantryman. Sure I may be in a different branch of service now, and had 2 completely different MOSs, but I still think of myself (and think like ) an Infantryman most of all.

And as such, I try to digest things into simple and non-complex ways. I simply look at who is fighting, and who they are fighting, and why they are fighting.

In this case, it is pretty simple. It is the same tribalism that has been an issue since 2003, and was a problem for a thousand years before that.

Prior to WWI, the population of Iraq was only around 6 million people. With the exception of around 100 years (1747-1831), the Ottomans had ruled the region for almost 6 centuries. And the exception of that was an era of tribal fighting that was put down brutally (and even during that period Iraq was only considered an autonomous territory, not really independent). Iraq was fully brought back into Ottoman rule after an emissary to Iraq from the Ottomans was executed, then the Ottomans invaded, which was also in the middle of a famine and plague.

So Iraq fell easily, and the Ottomans never really cared about tribal infighting, just so long as they did what they were told otherwise, and paid their taxes. Anybody who reads about the region during the fall of the Ottomans realizes that the Turks really did not care if the Arabs or others in the region killed each other or not. Just watching Lawrence of Arabia makes this obvious. Just so they paid lip service to the Turks, and paid tribute, they really did not care what they did.

So without a strong leader (through force or charisma) to make the tribes keep the peace, what was to stop them from fighting each other all over again?

 

Yep!!!

Most Sunni and Shiite's are still fighting the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD all over again.

The Battle of Karbala took place on Muharram 10, in the year 61 AH of the Islamic calendar[2] (October 10, 680)[8][9] in Karbala, situated in present day Iraq. The battle was between a small group of supporters and relatives of Muhammad's grandson Hussein ibn Ali, and a much larger military detachment from the forces of Yazid I, the Umayyad caliph, to whom Hussein had refused to give an oath of allegiance. Hussein and all his supporters were killed, including Hussein's six-month-old infant son, Ali al-Asghar ibn Husayn, with the women and children taken as prisoners. The dead are regarded as martyrs by both Sunni[10] and Shia Muslims, and the battle has a central place in Shia history and tradition, and has frequently been recounted in Shia Islamic literature.[11]

The Battle of Karbala is commemorated during an annual 10-day period held every Muharram by the Shia, Alevi and Sunni Muslims,[12] except adherents of Deobandi and Wahhabi movements,[13] culminating on its tenth day, known as the Day of Ashura. Sunni Muslims commemorate these events by acknowledging the great sacrifice made by Hussein ibn Ali and regard it as a deeply tragic event.[12][14] On the other hand, Shia Muslims commemorate these events by mourning, holding public processions, organizing majlis, striking the chest and in some cases self-flagellation.[11]

LINK....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Karbala

They understand only one thing.....what they can or cannot get away with.

AboveAlpha