Pres. Biden Approval/Disapproval polling (2021-2025 )

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Please read and understand the OP, if you are capable of that.

    It's never just one single poll. It's the aggregate.

    Also, Rasmussen as a historically proveable, mathematically verifiable house effect to the Right by at least 4 points, any day of the week.
     
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  2. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I am going to do my best to keep this thread sane, cogent and friendly, because I fully intend to keep my promise from the OP, which was to simply make the information available to all PFers.

    How you wish to interpret it is your business, but it would sure be nice to not have fly-by hitjobs using only one pollster as "evidence" or as a "weapon", because that is absolutely not in the spirit of this thread.

    Now, what @Kal'Stang asked for in this posting:

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...val-polling-2021-2025.584534/#post-1072476298

    is entirely in the spirit of this thread and Kal, as soon as I have time, I will begin to tend to this. How many presidents or administrations can be compared, I don't know for sure, because just 24 years ago, the number of pollsters who did regular presidential approval/disapproval polling was far fewer than today. That being said, starting a long-term database for comparison is, in my opinion, an eminently good idea.

    As far as the idea of "honeymoon" for a new President, an idea I agree is probably reality, I don't know how much it helps to see how long a "honeymoon" lasts, or not. And especially in the case of Pres. Joe Biden, for we live in unprecedented times, with Covid-19, a crashed economy, racial and religious strife, domestic terrorism and a whole slew of social issues that are being played up in social media. There is no doubt in my mind that the development of his administration is going to be drastically different than we have seen since, say, 1933.

    I will note that former President Trump never really had a "honeymoon" at all, his numbers dropped like a rock already in the 2nd week of his fledgling administration.

    George W. Bush had middling numbers at the start of his administration, but in the wake of 911, they shot upwards of 90% approval for a while. He ended his second term in the middle to upper 20% range.

    Similarly, George H. W. Bush had a really nice, long, solid honeymoon and after the beginning of the Golf War I, his numbers shot up at well. He lost re-election in 1992.

    Bill Clinton's approval numbers actually went UP following his impeachment process at the end of 1998. But his favorability numbers really took a hit following the impeachment and acquittal, which tells me that people are most definitely in the position to discern between distaste for a person because of his or her deeds, and his job performance overall.

    So, the numbers are worthy of watching, which is why I started this thread in the first place, but because each adminstration is unique, trying to make too many comparisons between administrations is likely a fruitless endeavor.

    On the composite, I am seeing steadiness in the Biden approval-disapproval numbers and I think there is no additional meaning to that at this point in time. It's the same kind of steadiness I saw in his 2020 heads-on polling numbers against former Pres. Trump.

    Again, I wish to warn against only looking at one single pollster as the alpha and omega of all this. The idea, well established and not backed by historical precedent, is that the composite of many established pollsters, within a similar time-frame, gives us a much better idea of how a President is faring among the public he (or she) was elected to serve.

    We are still just at the beginning of this fledgling administration, there is much, much more yet to come.

    Wait and see.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
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  4. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member

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    I think some of his favorability is due to a friendly press and an opaque process of government by fiat. I seriously don't think he will make it to the forth of July. The man is being carried subordinates, including his wife. We may choose to be blind to it here, but other world leaders are not. I question how long this can go until it blows up and we get the 40 Watt'er in the WH.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Wutt??
     
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  6. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member

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    I would like to see you include some metrics as to the effect of constant beat downs by a corrupt press as well as things like the "Honorary" Adam Schiff, saying "I have seen the evidence of... "* and he was lying. Same with Brennan going on as a paid talking head using his gravitas to spread disinformation**. How does anyone counter that? This is what is the major difference that voids any comparison to other presidents of the 20th century forward.

    *https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/21/adam-schiff-collusion-trump-1283786
    ** https://thefederalist.com/2020/12/0...ies-again-about-no-spying-on-trumps-campaign/
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    First, calling it a "corrupt press" is no way to get me, a Jew, who knows all too well the pain of Hitler having called the Press "Lügenpresse" (the lying press), to do anything for you. Second, it may just totally surprise you, but the press has been holding people accountable for a long, long time. Do you seriously think that the press gave either Dwight D. Eisenhower OR John F. Kennedy a free ride? Third, if you have something to say about Rep. Adam Schiff and it is not related to approval-disapproval polling for Biden for the time-frame I listed in the OP and the OP title, then please start your own thread about Rep. Schiff and have at it. Seriously, this is what adults do.

    So, perhaps you may want to couch your wishes in other words, otherwise, I am simply not interested.

    The technique you are trying to insert into this thread is the so called "wag the dog" method, but implying or inferring that the actions of the press have swayed public opinon polling sooooooooooooo much that said polling is just simply worthless.

    Well, that's simply not the case.

    Dogs wag their tails, the tail does not, I repeat, does not wag the dog.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ok, the approve/disapprove numbers are now up to date.

    Here are the averages of the most recent polls:

    2021-03-008 Biden Job Approval 001.png

    2021-03-008 Biden Job Approval 002.png

    2021-03-008 Biden Job Approval 003.png

    2021-03-008 Biden Job Approval 004.png

    2021-03-008 Biden Job Approval 005.png

    I got most of them, probably missed one AP/NORC poll, which is usually very, very Democrat-friendly.

    Once the 1.9 T Covid-19 stimulus package is signed into law, I will be curious to see what happens to these numbers overall.

    As you can see, President Biden is still well above water with this approval/disapproval numbers.

    From my perspective, the four rubriks to really keep an eye on are:

    -women
    -moderates
    -suburbanites
    -The South
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I will be updating the approve/disapprove numbers for President Biden by the end of this weekend.

    But the newest polling is showing, unanimously, that the American public is overwhelmingly supportive of the COVID-19 relief package that was signed into law last week.
     
  10. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    As a side note, it surprises me that people accept the results of polls without knowing the questions asked or the way the process was randomized. There are some really bad polls that are guided by how the questions are designed - even from well known pollsters.
     
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Can you provide some specific examples of questions that you feel are badly or misleadingly formulated?
     
  12. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    No, the pollsters don't provide the questions. Just their analysis of the results. That is the problem.
     
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    That is absolutely untrue. Virtually all pollsters provide the exact wording of their questions.
     
  14. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    TAX-WISE

    Which is about as useful as it seems to be. That is, of no consequence whatsoever. What we Yanks do not understand is - in the rush for public notoriety - the multitude of such "studies" have shown aptly how irrelevant they are.

    Especially the "quickies"! They are about as useful as warm fecal-matter.

    Patience, people! Patience! At least six months for the PotUS and an entire year for either Congressional entity. That is, to have a valid measure of their "net-worth" that we-the-sheeple are subsidizing tax-wise handsomely.

    But of course, if that wait-time given above is true, then all the BS in between is just that - useless talk on TV! And those whose livelihoods depend upon treating newsworthy items must suffer. Can't have that, can we! So, the BS gets its daily "TV-time"! Day after day after sickening day cuz we gotta fill that TV-time!

    Once upon a time in American history it took news from "DC" three weeks to get to San Francisco. (Ah, but those were the days! ;^)

    But then some idiot invented the "telegraph". Damit!
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
  15. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    I'm always curious about such polling. What approval/disapproval are they talking about. Personal or policy. Goals or results.
     
  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Go to their website for more information on questions and sampling.
     
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  17. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    You might look at Biden putting food on the table and shots in arms as the source of his popularity.
    You Trump True Believers are wayyyyyyy out there in the right, hoping against hope there will be a Second Coming of the Orange Oaf.
     
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  18. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Probably not as approval/disapproval questions tend to be straightforward and change little over many years.
     
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  19. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They did not wait when it was Trump. They attacked him day one.

    In fact Obama attacked Trump on January 6, 2017 that led to Trump being accused of being in league with Russia.
     
  20. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    But not with selling polls to rightwing media outlets. :(
     
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  21. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Strange. I look left when I see Trump supporters. I am wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out there. They vote for Trump. I don't. They accept the current configuration of the federal government. I don't. They are republicans. I'm not. They see some value in politics. I don't. I am a proud conservative nut job.
     
  22. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member

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    He is definitely putting food on the cartel's table.
    And my comment about Joe not running his presidency stands. America is being run by three leftwing egotists: his Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Susan Rice, and Obama.
     
  23. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Even after Trump and his defeat, you still don't understand why a President with a 43% approval rating can't be re-elected?
     
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  24. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    This is about Biden who has been in office less than 100 days, I'm always curious about such polling. What approval/disapproval are they talking about. Personal or policy. Goals or results.
     
  25. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even if that were true, at least the government is finally being run somewhere other than into the ground again.

    It is rather disgusting how extreme so-called conservatives in this country have become after years of intellectual poisoning by Fox News and its even worse, primarily or entirely online successors, not to mention all of the actual propaganda from hostile foreign sources that now finds its way directly to them through their social media feeds, especially thanks to fake news sites such as Gateway Pundit, pjmedia.com and countless others.
     

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