Pres. Biden Approval/Disapproval polling (2021-2025 )

Why would that matter? You don't think we're supposed to analyze the past? Convictions may not result, but the truth can come out.
Example of not a single conviction, yet truth:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box_13_scandal
Pretty sure JFK lost to Nixon in 1960 too. He who ignores the past...

 

Biden has become as loathsome as Trump.
It's Seven Grandkids, Mr. President
Maureen Dowd, New York Times



The president's cold shoulder to his seventh grandchild reveals how dated and inauthentic his view of family is Read More

 

The analogy is ridiculous. Johnson exited the race, after nearly losing the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, to Eugene McCarthy (48% to 42%). Then, Robert F. Kennedy, entered the race. Johnson believed there was a good chance, he would lose the Primary.

So, does your article name the person/people who will run against Biden, who are a serious threat, for beating him? FYI, RFK Jr., is a mighty fall, from his father, in political appeal, and nowhere near as serious of a threat. So, why is Biden going to withdraw? Barring a personal health crisis, you and this author are just blowing smoke.

 

We shall see.

 

LOL

 

Biden Is Becoming a Profound Problem for Democrats
Douglas Schoen, Messenger

Read More

 

Nice work

 

Dems Worried About Biden, Reaching Out to Alternatives
Edward-Isaac Dovere, CNN

 

LOL-- one guy's take, which relies on cherry picked polls of ignorant Americans. We are very possibly going to achieve the elusive "soft landing," that is always sought, yet never seems to manifest: cooling off inflation, without going into recession. That would be an economic masterstroke! And it would have come along with historically high job growth, and better GDP growth, than most comparable countries, in the post-pandemic period. Of course, Republicans have been against the steps, which will have achieved this best of all possible results. So now this (probably partisan) hack, you quote, says that 42% of Americans prefer "the Republican approach" to the economy, as opposed to 30% approving of Biden's-- big deal. The election is still almost a year and a half away. Some people are just very slow on the uptake. As inflation continues to recede, and we continue to get month after month of positive economic data, those numbers will begin to move. Do you think those are locked in?

As this was the poor opening to the article you provided, to make the case, on your behalf-- and as it is standard expository practice, to put one's strongest arguments first, I was not going to waste time, reading why this clearly unintelligent writer (or Republican shill) was going to allege that our foreign allies are upset with Biden. One would need be utterly clueless, to not realize that our allies (with few exceptions, such as Turkey & Hungary; and, if you want to consider it an ally, Saudi Arabia) would all still far prefer Biden to Trump, or to DeSantis. But of course, American voters tend to not pay much mind to the opinions of foreigners, anyway.

In short, your link was:
1) a lame, and lazy excuse for a post, or for a debate argument.
2) a weak article, to boot.

 

He's a Democrat, and not an inconsequential one.
Douglas Schoen | Official Publisher Page

Simon & Schuster
https://www.simonandschuster.com › authors › Dougl...


Douglas E. Schoen has been one of the most influential Democratic campaign consultants for more than 40 years. He is the founder of Schoen-Cooperman Research, a premier strategic research consulting firm, and he is widely recognized as one of the co-inventors of overnight polling. His political clients include former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and President Bill Clinton, and internationally, he has worked for the heads of state of over 15 countries.

 

I repeat: big deal; it is still only one opinion. How long a list, do you think we would have, if we named every political consultant, who has worked for Bill Clinton, and other heavyweight candidates (or at least of the level of former Mayor Bloomberg)? Actually, if those are his most recent, big-name clients, it would seem he has not been much of a player, through the thick of the present time, drastic reshaping of our political landscape.

BTW, Paul Manafort had worked for numerous foreign leaders, as well (and I wouldn't take all his thoughts, as Gospel, either).

Schoen's claim to fame, seems to be with regard to "overnight polling," which is as applicable to long-term political forecasts, as being good with a telescope, qualifies one for being an an astronaut.

If you think he makes any good arguments, why don't you at least sketch them out? That is my impression, of how a debate website, should operate. Links are only meant to support claims, IMO, not to make any poster's argument, for them.

 

A friend of mine, a champion college debater, once told me: "Debates are won in the library." That's the principle that guides me.

 

I agree, completely, that a good debater, need be well informed on his topic. This does not relieve him, however, from the obligation of putting forth an argument, in his own voice. If all one does, is find others who have made the argument, with which one agrees, that does not make him a debater-- it makes him a debater's research assistant.

 

Nah. There's too much poseur rhetoric here already.

 

RFK Jr. and the Tantalizing Echoes of 1968
Frank Miele, RealClearPolitics




It is awkward but necessary to draw comparisons between Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign for president today with the 1968 Democratic... Read More

 

Why Biden Worries About a Third-Party Rival in 2024
Harry Enten, CNN




It’s hard to miss the headlines about a third-party or independent candidate possibly derailing President Joe Biden’s bid for a... Read More

 

Here's a good read about 3rd parties from 538

Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump — And Spoil The Election For Biden

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/third-party-candidate-spoiler-trump-biden/

 

Yup. We can expect to hear this more often and more loudly from Democrats. I refuse to be blackmailed.

 

It’s very hard to predict which party third party voters will hurt the most if hurt is the right word. In 2016 it was Hillary Clinton who benefited from the third-party vote if CNN exit polls are to be believed. To the question to third party voters only, which candidate would you have voted for in only a two-way race, only Trump and Clinton to choose from. No other parties or candidates.


19% answered Trump, 15% said Clinton, 65% said they wouldn’t have voted. The results were the third-party voters actually took more votes from Trump than Clinton. I don’t look at it that way, not taking votes from either major party candidate. Most third-party voters wanted both to lose, they didn’t like both and didn’t want either one to become president. A third-party voter was never a republican nor a democratic vote lost or taken from. Neither major party had their vote to begin with.


A third-party vote is a way to show one’s total disgust with the choices offered by the two major parties. One can stay home and refuse to vote as many did in 2016, that doesn’t show up in the final vote tally though. Voter turnout in 2016 was 54% compared to 62% for 2020. That give you an idea of how many stayed home refusing to vote for either major party candidate. I predict 2024 will be another low voter turnout election along with a high percentage of voters voting third party against both major party candidates as they don’t like their choices, they dislike both candidates and don’t want neither to become president. Whose fault is that? Certainly not the voters, they didn’t choose the candidates.

 

The Frontrunner Who Looks Like a Loser Is Biden
Daniel McCarthy, New York Post




Are Democrats forfeiting the 2024 election? Read More

 

I can't totally agree with your last point.
The DNC is corrupt as all get out. Feeding Clinton debate questions and essentially choosing Biden and telling other preferred candidates to drop out and endorse him, which they did.
The RNC elite hates Trump. He got in because initially, Clinton, the DNC and the mainstream media tried a "pied piper" strategy, hoping to get him nominated and then Clinton would trounce him. But funny thing, the RNC is realigning. They are becoming the populist party, much against the will of the RNC elite. Trump looks to be the nominee as there is enough of a cohesive base in existence to support him. The equivalent would be at a minimum, had Berny Sanders been the Democrat nominee in 2020.

 

Preserving democracy is phrase that translates into one party control for the Democrats, absolute control. At least that is what I think of when I hear that phrase.


The two major parties can nominate who they want. Now if I were a Republican, I’d be very leery about nominating Trump. Independents don’t like him, it’s independents that decide national elections. Be it a populist movement within the GOP or not. Trump is much disliked outside of the GOP. Especially as a person. It’s the candidate most independents vote for or against. Not the party. Personality plays a vital roll in their vote.


In 2018 the GOP lost the house, independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 letting the Democrats gain 42 house seats. This is after independents did vote for Trump in 2016 46-42 over Clinton, 12% voted third party against both Trump and Clinton. In 2020 independents went for Biden 54-41 over Trump in Biden’s win. The Democrats also gained 3 senate seats to take control there. In 2022 what should have been a red wave election turned into a red trickle or a blue trickle depending on how one looks at it. The democrats did gain a senate seat and 2 governorships while limiting their house loses to 9 seats. Why, while independents were voting for non-Trump chosen Republican candidates 10 points higher than Trump chosen Republican candidates, Trump chosen candidates Masters, Walker, Diehl, Cox, Laxalt, Oz, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Palin, Lake, Schmidt, Dixon, Mastriano plus some I can’t remember all lost.


Trump has power within the Republican Party. He’s currenting leading in the nomination polls with 53%. But Trump doesn’t have that same power or attractiveness outside of the GOP. Especially when it comes to independents which the Republican Party still being the smaller of the two major parties must win to win in the general election.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html


Here’s how all of America views Trump


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html


Only 36% of independents have a favorable/positive view of Trump, 59% unfavorable/negative. Those types of numbers I would conclude that independents would be rushing to the polls to vote for Trump. Yes, republicans love him, but they’re the only ones.

 

Some polls, depending upon who you ask and when, have Trump comfortably ahead. Example:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

This in a 2 way. Early someone (you?) posted that 3rd party hurt Trump more than Hillary in 2016. I think this time, they will cost Biden. And this is with the deep state and corporate media circling the wagons around him while twisting every story to be as anti-Trump as possible. No wonder they need to import people to replace us.

 

Doubts and Questions About Biden Will Only Grow
A.B. Stoddard, RealClearPolitics

Read More

 

For horserace numbers, I like to go with RCP which averages out all the recent polls.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html



RCP has them dead even. This far out, these aren’t much of an indicator for November 2024. There’s always a couple of unforeseen events that happen that will turn these figures on their ear, upset the whole applecart so to speak. The normal average vote for third parties is 1.5%, although in 2016 it was a high 6%. I suspect that will be the case in 2024 if the rematch occurs. A low voter turnout as in 2016, 54% vs. 2020 62%.


I don’t think it’s the media that has caused most Americans to dislike Trump. I’d say it’s his obnoxious, uncouth, rude personality. That fine with a wrestler in the WWE or a reality TV show host. But most folks expect a president to behave and act presidential. Trump didn’t. Independent view Trump’s childish antics like name calling and throwing of temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactic as being way below the dignity the office of the presidency deserves. Biden with all his faults does act like an adult and behaves like most independents think a president should behave. Even if they dislike his policies.