Russia retaliates after pilot is killed in rebel-held Syria. (Comments on YouTube)

It can lead to war which they cannot win. Provided that the US or Russia don't use this move to support it balancing the odds. If Russia and the USA told Turkey that it would be war if they don't withdraw their troops from Syria - it would take Erdogan a day to withdraw all the troops. But it is impossible since both countries use Turkey for its projects, Military and civil.

 

Perfect they will tell you, they don't want to win they want to achieve their objectives which are different to winning the war (ie reduce Iranian influence in Syria) Turks (weaken the PKK/YPG)

 

These countries play the game of their own. I don't deny it. But they are not able to resist the will of the countries from security council of UN. So it's not that complicated as you say. The main aim is to reach the agreement between Russia, USA with getting the approval of the compromise from EU and China. The main problem is what do Russia and the USA want to see in the region. If the interests of both countries are contradictive, opposing and find no room for compromise - the game of regional players can last forever.

 

Well I don't necessarily think it's complicated, it's just highly unlikely the parties will agree. Here I'll make a list

1. Israel wants Iran gone, Iran won't leave.
2. Russia, Turkey, Syria, Iran wants America gone, America won't leave
3. Turkey also wants the PKK/YPG gone... the PKK/YPG won't leave
4. The Kurds and Israel want America to stay... America wants to stay (score 1)
5. Assad wants Russia to stay ... Russia wants to stay (Score 2)
6. Iran wants to be free to build their weapons/missile factories so they can attack Israel... Israel won't let them
7. The Syrian rebels wants Russia and Iran gone and Turkey and Israel to help them overthrow Assad... Russia and Iran won't leave.
8. Everyone wants ISIS gone (score 3)

so three out of eight... but 1.2.3.6 and 7 are biggies and highly unlikely to happen.

The other thing that intrigues me is how Russia juggle the Iran and Israel's relationship...and when Russia must choose... who will you choose?

 

Let's have a look.
1. Israel wants safety from Iranian forces. They don't really need to destroy Iran or to push it of Syrian territory provided Israel is safe.
2. If the US would act according to main interests of Russia, Turkey and Syria all the three groups won't have any problems with American forces in the region. Provided that they have warranty of the aims of American forces.
3. Turkey wants territorial integrity. If they have a compromise with kurds who would take an obligation not to break the territorial integrity in their urge for having the state of their own - Turkey will be fine.
4. Kurds want a state of their own. But if they are given a broader self-governance under the existing borders and warranty for remaining as a unified nation they can find it as way out. It's a pity that such a big nation hasn't received the statehood in times when Europeans were drawing borders and shaping new states.
5. Assad wants to stay alive and to finish the war. Russia wants the same. If the war ends Russia would gladly remove as much troops as possible from Syria and Assad won't be against of it.
6. Iran wants to survive as state and nation and to have an influence in Arabic world as a big nation and state. They can come to an agreement if Israel steps of it strict policies in Palestine and game in ME. Iran needs weapons not to get the next Iraq or Libya. Israel can fall in this game as a demonstration of Iranian force. For me the destruction of Iranians or Israelis is equally unacceptable. There can be a compromise.
7. If the Syrian rebels want power they need to take part in elections. The elections will happen only in peaceful conditions. Installing a new corrupt regime in the ME, pretending to be democratic will look good in western propaganda for some time. Short time. And later someone like Mattic will tell that it was a huge mistake to overthrow Assad...
8. And it would be a great issue to unite the efforts, because struggling against the common enemy was proposed by Putin long long ago.

There always is a compromise. You just need to look for it.

 

1. Wrong, Iran wants Israel to be totally annihilated. Israel has no such desire to destroy Iran, but is being threatened by the rhetoric from the non democratic, totalitarian Iranian Radical Islamic Death to Infidels government.
2. Russia just wants Assad back in charge to keep Syria from becoming a Radical Islamic Death to Infidel government. USA should not have any problem with that.
3. The Muslim Islamic Death to Infidel element of Turkey wants the Kurds wiped out, exterminated.
4. The Kurds and Israel, want USA to stay, because the Muslim Islamic Death to Infidel elements from Turkey, Iran, and Syria want Israel and the Kurds to be annihilated. The USA does not really want to stay, but does not really have a moral choice to abandon Kurds and Israel in the face of the threat of Radical Islam.
5. Assad wants Russia to stay. USA should, if they really oppose Radial Islam, have no problem with Assad keeping control of Syria. Israel, also, having the main threat being Radical Islam, should welcome an Assad control of Syria which keeps Radical Islamic elements in check.
6. The Iranian Radical Islamic government wants to build a nuclear arsenal to use against the Infidels. Russia should be as alarmed about this much as the USA, and Israel are, since Islam view Russian as much Infidel as they do any other non Muslim country.
7. The Syrian "rebels" are just more Radical Islamic elements that if in power would make Syria a worse threat to Israel than would Assad.
8. No, there is some element in the USA, probably some McCain neocon element, that allied themselves with Obama and Hillary Clinton, to create ISIS in the 1st place, and that element will soon be eradicated by Trumps draining the swamp (hopefully).

. The main problem, therefore, is Radical Islam, and an element in the US government left over from the Obama Muslim administration that created ISIS, which has not yet been removed by Trump.

The solution
1.: USA removes US troops from operations in Syria, stops supporting any "rebel" forces, which are really just more Radical Islamic forcers, and lets Putin/Assad keep a lock down on Syria to keep the Radcial Islamic element from ever controlling that country.
2. USA and Russia work together to help the Iranian population overthrow the Radical Islamic government and replace with a more moderate secularist government that will agree not to build a nuclear arsenal in eschange for more normal relations.
3. Trump removes the remaining residual Obama element in the USA government which created ISIS in the 1st place and was aiding Radcial Islamic Death to Infidel groups like Hezbolah and Hamas and any other group which called for Death to Israel.
4. USA lifts any sanctions on Russia, which are only counter productive and strengthens the relationship with Putin in an alliance to keep the biggest threat to mankind since the Nazis, the 200 million Radical Islamic element and its supporting 1 Billion other Muslims.. IN CHECK.

 

1. Agree. Besides, it can happen in exchange for Russian, Turkish and Iranian troops simulateneous withdrawal after the victory.
2. Replacing governments is an ill practice. It will be much better to give Iran a chance for the development into a secularized state. They need to have an alternative. If they don't have it any revolutionary coming after ayatollas would be worse. Let it remain internal Iranian issue. For additional safety if Israeli people really want the US and Russia can set up the best defensive antimissile system possible.
3. That is an internal issue of the USA. I don't believe that Trump is strong enough to perform a change of political elite. But it is up to americans and cannot be part of the deal. If Trump decides to bring justice into estimation of actions of American citizens abroad it would certainly bring lots of people from top of the nation to jail (which was promised), but they would faster remove Trump than he performs smth like it.
4. Agree. The sanctions is a different issue, but uniting to oppose a common enemy is a must.

 

Sigh... see this is why I just want to go back to bed right now.... I didn't say Israel wants to destroy/annialate Iran... that is something both of you made up.

(speaking off the cuff btw) I said Israel wants Iran gone... out of Syria.... now I'm not in the mood to even look at number two, because you've probably just done the same thing all through.... what is it with men... are they really this desperate to be right

 

You didn't. But the things between Iran and Israel are known even none of us has written anything in here. The conflict is sometimes depicted as existential. But in fact it is just the rhetorics IMHO.

You found the controversy in two different opinions and think it is enough to refuse of everything else? Ah... girls... They bite off the cream of the cake and then refuse to eat the rest because they don't want to get fat... ))

 

well yesterday spent 30 minutes on the treadmill and 20 laps in the pool that way I can afford to occasionally eat cake

vvv is what I said

Besides Israel said it won't allow Hezbollah to build bases and factories in Syria...so to be fair that is what Israel wants... no Iranian bases in Syria.

 

Former British senior MI6 officer, Alastair Crooke, on what are Israel's underlying motivations in Syria and the Middle East - basically it is the Oded Yinon Plan to fragment the entire region:

https://www.mintpressnews.com/miscalculations-israel-pave-way-wider-war/236905/

 

Quit touting the US propaganda machines anti Russia narrative as if it is not from known liars and creators of false narrative.

We know that Russia is a propaganda state ... fine, but I do not live in Russia. My problem is that the USA is also a propaganda state.

 

Really... of all my anti Russian propaganda posts you chose this one

I'm exercising self restraint on a very high level here... so much to say, you have no idea how hard this is for me but I'm going to be good and walk away quietly.... click.. clack.. click... clack... open door... shut softly

 

That's a great article thank you, there's a couple of things I think he overlooks... who the hell am I right lol... I'll tell you anyway

The US still has a very strong "Trump card" (I mean that figuratively of course ) which is economic warfare. Turkey atm is very vulnerable economically, Erdogan is running Turkey's economy red raw, I believe they had a 42% increase in their 2017 deficit, which was covered by reserves... however they do not have enough to cover at least 6 months at this rate.. perhaps even less. Probably the reason for Erdogan's erratic behaviour with the Italians etc. He hates the idea of making a deal with the US on the Kurds even if it will be the best for Turkey in the long run.

The other issue is Turkey's pending elections in 2019, he must win if he wants to stay till 2029 (per referendum 2016) and he must retain the votes of the nationalists... which means he can't appear weak in capitulating to the US on the Kurds. However there is also the Iran/Turkey corruption court case involving the gold trader in New York cooperating with investigators, which makes a win so much more important if he doesn't want possible corruption charges by a successor.

So Erdogan is in a little bit of a pickle and the US will exploit this because Tillerson confirmed America's support for the Kurds.. it is now a done deal and if Erdogan continue to turn against the US I will not be surprised if we start hearing talk of sanctions.

I don't think Trump is a good measure of American foreign policy atm, the Pentagon seem to be running the show and since it's fairly in line with Israels for now, Trump, Kushner and the rest of the trio seems to be falling into line. I don't think Israel is misjudging anyone, the stakes are high and the moves bold... everything may not have gone according to plan but some things have... for example

Saudi Arabia's "sheikh" down - coup prevention and clearing of Hezbollah agents... Saudi Arabia was fracturing prior to this event, this event was meant to stabilise the Kingdom - (the author infers this event caused the vulnerable state of Saudi Arabia which is not true... Saudi's problems have been years in the making)
The Jerusalem embassy move and subsequent cut in funding to Palestinians who have been tilting towards Iran once more (after a chill in their relationship for not supporting Assad)
America's support for the Kurds and remaining permanently in "Kurdistan" Syria

Israel have never misjudged Iran, while the whole world was watching ISIS... they've been watching Hezbollah grow into a giant.

 

I don't agree with the other man either.

 

Big correction right there. US Foreign Policy. I can differ between US people which I have had more friendly experience with than any other people. I personally do not believe that American peoples will is represented around the globe.

 

Can't imagine a man of such high standing being corrupt? Shurely not?

I may be wrong, but I can't see a gold trader in New York having any sort of meaningful impact on Erdogan given the extent of corruption that passes for everyday business activities in Ankara and Washington. It may be that my cynicism is showing through though?

The thing about this is that so many members of the American Turkish Council have been deeply mired in all sorts of crooked activity according to former FBI Sibel Edmonds (HERE). And some members are really powerful people in Washington, which means much of what apparently goes on remains classified and is protected. According to Edmonds this includes illegal transactions in US nuclear technology - and if that can't make it to the news than nothing can, I suspect.

I agree that Trump's foreign policy is not his own and that the Pentagon is behind much of it - but I'm also pretty sure they answer to others also. The new Trump Doctrine recently announced is basically the same as it was prior to Trump, namely the Wolfowitz Doctrine revamped to name China as well as Russia.

For the rest of it we'll see how it shakes out in the nearish future.

 

My post has in mind those other posts. Russia is not the problem ... Russia is not threatening your security and liberty ... the problem is the Establishment ( Political elite, Deep state bureaucracy, and the international financiers that pull the strings)

 

It's the whole lot of yeh...stabbing one another in the back, the only innocent ones here are us Aussies... minding our business down the bottom of the planet

 

I also know that many people preferred death in battle than death from bombs of terrorists. I'm even sure that the Japanese preferred to die in battle as well, rather than die from an American atomic bomb.

 

Da, comrade Des. We Americans too would rather die in battle than from constantly listening to Russian whining.

 

In a possible clash between us only those of the humans who manage to survive will have to be whining for another century about our 'bravery'. Something tells me that we won't have good memories among them.

 

What do you think about the old maxim "Better to live a day on one's feet than a lifetime on one's knees"?

 

I think that people with the correct understanding of dignity follow it every day in their life. But the people who confuse dignity and selfishness can use it to justify their ill behavior. I will gladly find a compromise with the others staying my grounds.
Poetically continuing this old maxim - Once you stay on your feet you can step into any direction, but when you are kneeled you can hardly move from where you are.

 

This is your tradition. In battle, you only know how to die. Especially remembering the operation "Overlord", when German invalids resisted your attacks. About Vietnam, I do not even want to talk. .... Winning in battle is a tradition of Russians.

PS:

By the way, it's correct to write "tovarish", not "comrade"