Severe weather alert!!!!

Well, the temperature is going up from winter to summer even though half the time temperatures are cool at night. Just because it was cold in the morning doesn't mean summer isn't happening. In the same way, just because hurricanes were weak last year doesn't disprove the fact that warmer water will mean stronger hurricanes on average. Please educate yourself on the basic science before posting nonsense.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...st-coast-of-the-u-s-but-never-the-west-coast/

 

Climate change is the norm not a dead canary. Tell me when this magic era was that climate didn't change and was "normal".

 

"2005 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. It’s then followed by a 10-year gap, which is the longest period for the U.S. to avoid a Category 3 or higher hurricane since reliable records began in 1850"

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a012200/a012251/script_41084_01.html

 

A single year means nothing to a several decade trend. A 10 year period without a category 3 isn't a very precise measure since the exact strength of these hurricanes aren't measured during this period. Another fact is that the water climate system is complex and just because there is a temperature rise doesn't mean that hurricanes are going to get stronger immediately. It can take a few decades and more warming. But it is basic science that warmer water makes hurricanes stronger and warm water is integral to how hurricanes form.
https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/HURRICANE_RECIPE.html

 

You would think but it hasn't really happened that way

 

Yes, and Alfred Wegener was laughed at and ridiculed for his continental drift theory even though it should have been obvious that the continents really did move. I mean, duh, they appear to fit together like puzzle pieces with rock and fossil finds matching up for a reason. But, the point is that once the scientific consensus finally began developing in the 60's he and his theory were vindicated. That's how the abundance of evidence works. Eventually it all works out. It's the same with Arrhenius' anthroprogenic global warming theory from 1896. He was largely ignored until the 70's when the abundance of evidence began piling on. Each case of scientific revolutions by individuals came from a dearth of evidence on the topic in general. But their strokes of brilliance were vindicated only after the evidence supporting their ideas simply could not be ignored any longer. Science always moves in the direction of truth. Sometimes the progress is slow like in Wegener and Arrhenius' case but there's always a path forward in the pursuit of truth. It would take even more profound revolutions in science to overthrow the 100 year history of continental drift or the 120 year history of AGW. Plate techtonics is well established process for moving the land masses just like molecular vibration is a well established process for warming the atmosphere. As is the case in both of these theories the road was bumpy, but that doesn't mean science failed to discover the truth.

 

But, there were plenty of category 3 and higher tropical cyclones. Just because they didn't hit the US doesn't mean they didn't happen. In fact, 8 of the top 10 strongest cyclones in the Atlantic all occurred after 1980. And 9 of the top 10 Eastern Pacific hurricanes have all occurred since 1994 with Patricia being the cyclone with the highest wind speed anywhere on the planet and it occurred in 2015. So let's not pretend like strong cyclones haven't been occurring with regularity.

 

Uh,......................

 

How did they measure hurricanes 250 years ago?
What was their frequency

 

Yes it does. Warmer places like the tropics have hurricanes while cold places don't explain. I can't believe you are denying the basic science of how hurricanes form. Do you think hurricanes are made by God or something?

 

What's your evidence that they packed more or less joules of energy and occured more or less frequently 250 years ago? 500 years? 5000 years?

 

Most tropical cyclones weren't even cataloged 250 years ago. But, how does a lack of record keeping 250 years ago invalidate the fact that strong tropical cyclones are occurring today? Again, my point is that just because they haven't been making landfall in the United States recently doesn't mean they weren't happening.

 

Scientists do not all believe the same thing that you believe. And taunts and insults never are good for science.

 

Notice, you do not show up with facts. If you had facts, you would show them.

 

See post #58 and refer to the NHC archives here.

 

That is not a good sign of climate change. It involves weather. A better sign of climate change would be that post 2005, even the USA got hit with worse storms. This did not happen. Thanks for letting me know of post 58.

 

Warmer water helps hurricanes. Waters have been warming. Which of these do you disagree with?

 

Alpha
Let’s follow the thread of conversation together

DANIEL SAYS

Again - no scientist is claiming that one weather event is PROOF

You quoted Daniel after presumably reading his post clearly saying PROOF....

ALPHA SAYS
no its just the leftist peanut gallery that does. Please deny this.

Then I responded as if you had read the post that you quoted and therefore you were making the claim that the leftist peanut gallery says that storms PROVE. Climate change


To which I responded trying to clarify what I took to be a misunderstanding... to wit that the leftist peanut gallery does NOT claim storoms PROVE climate change, but that they illustrate the consequences of climate change

ALPHA RESPONDS
So you need me to find the copious reports that the severity of the recent hurricanes were caused from climate change?

which response I note changes the terms of the discussion in that you were alleging that leftists claim that storms PROVE CLIMATE change, and now you glibly change your claim to be that leftists claim that the severity of the recent hurricanes were caused from climate change.... which I have already agreed to be true

Again, I note your apparent inability to distinguish a difference between the severity of storms Proving climate change, vs the claim that the severity of storms has been caused by climate change

 

Two points
Yes, climate has always changed, BUT over geologic time scales

Second,
The fact that climate has always changed ignores whether or not Human activity is impacting climate in this ere. And if there is a human impact whether that impact may have negative consequences for human habitation of this planet

For example, let’s agree that ice ages have occurred naturally in the past. So, by definition ice ages can be natural. Otoh, let’s suppose that some human activity could provoke an ice age... few people would say it is ok to provoke a new ice age just because ice ages have occurred naturally in the past and therefore are “natural”

 

Warmer water contains more energy.
Do you or don't you have an answer to the frequency and intensity of storms 250, 500, and 5000 years ago?

 

Yes, warmer water contains more energy. That means there is more energy to draw from for cyclone intensification.

We do not have reliable cyclone records 250 years let alone 500 or 5000 years ago to answer that question either way.

However, what we can say is that the oceanic environment is more conducive for intense cyclones than it was in the past. We can also say that the atmospheric environment is probably less conducive for cyclogenesis in general. This is actually a prediction of AGW by the way. That is by 2100 it is expected that the number of cyclones will decrease overall, but the number of intense cyclones will increase. This is still hotly debated in the academic community though and as of yet I would not be willing to say there is a consensus either way on this topic. But, I can say the evidence leans toward the statement above.

 

And this is what Gore promised us in his predictions. But funny thing took place. Did water off the Gulf warm more? If it has, why no more hurricanes

 

Gore isn't a credible source so his predictions don't matter.

Warmer water does not necessarily mean more hurricanes. It just means that when they do form they have more energy to draw from and can be more intense. Wind shear is the most important factor in cyclogenesis. Oceanic heat content is the most important factor in cyclone intensity. Cyclones can't get intense if they don't form. Wind shear suppresses their formation. There are, of course, many other factors involved as well.

 

We don't have good data on these storms, we only have the science of how storms work. If warmer water means more storms, and the planet is warming that means eventually we are going to get stronger storms. Combined with sea level rise from future warming and Florida may one day be unlivable. Canada and Russia are the future.

 

meaning you don't have enough data to establish whether or not anything has changed over time scales relative to the earth's existence.