Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Disaffected, Sep 4, 2022.

  1. Disaffected

    Disaffected Newly Registered

    Joined:
    May 30, 2022
    Messages:
    82
    Likes Received:
    103
    Trophy Points:
    33
    Two figures to consider:

    1) Joe Biden's approval/disapproval rating stands at 43/53 right now (i.e. he's underwater by 10 points).

    That's pretty bad. If, as is usually the case, the midterm election is a referendum on the sitting president, we can expect his party to lose massively in November for the the GOP to easily seize both houses of Congress. Combined with high inflation, we would expect the oft mentioned "red wave".

    2) Donald Trump's approval/disapproval rating stands at 39/58 right now (i.e. he's underwater by 19 points).

    That's much worse. If the election is allowed to become a choice between Biden and Trump (or even a referendum of Trumpism itself), we would expect minimal GOP gains in Congress, even with high inflation, and for the Democrats to hold and even possibly gain seats in the Senate.

    Biden DEFINITELY wants it to go there, hence his "save democracy" speech in Philadelphia where he repeatedly name-dropped Trump.

    More surprisingly, it seems like Trump ALSO wants it to go there, hence his choice to deliver a counter-speech in the same state two days later, thus setting up a picture perfect Biden-v-Trump narrative in everyone's mind, the very thing Democrats hope for and that the GOP should be trying to avoid. Trump has since gone on to rant on Truth Social and even went out of his way to talk about pardoning the Jan. 6 rioters if he's returned to office. In short, when he should be trying to keep a low profile so that the focus remains on how unhappy everyone is with Biden and inflation, Donald Trump seems to be trying very hard to get his name out there and remind all the people who [rightly or wrongly] don't like him that HE is the alternative.

    In short, Trump is poised to snatch a GOP defeat from the jaws of victory and, for the second time in a row, save the Senate for the Democrats.

    * Approval numbers are from the 538 averages
     
    19Crib and Jack Hays like this.
  2. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2015
    Messages:
    31,455
    Likes Received:
    34,888
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Narcissists are never going to disappoint when the subject is themselves.
    They can only view the world through the lens of self - and Trump is a self-admitted narcissist.
     
    Rampart likes this.
  3. yangforward

    yangforward Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2022
    Messages:
    3,393
    Likes Received:
    1,447
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It depends on the questions asked.

    In a matchup of Biden vs Trump then Trump would be most people's choice.

    If it was Trump vs someone else, then someone else would win.

    That might be true if the someone else was Tulsi Gabbard or Ron Desantis.

    Any of those, Trump, Tulsi or Ron would be chosen over Biden.

    But if no clear decision was reached and the vote was split and if mail-in ballots were used, then there are enough crazies out there for Biden to maybe even win.
     
    gorfias likes this.
  4. submarinepainter

    submarinepainter Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    21,596
    Likes Received:
    1,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I had hoped he would be raising cash for others, and this is why I dislike Trump he is only for him not the party
     
  5. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    53,092
    Likes Received:
    49,456
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I seem to remember poll numbers assuring us of who is going to win in 2016.

    It's far too early to use such a transistory sampling to try to predict the future events
     
    gorfias likes this.
  6. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    May 15, 2017
    Messages:
    34,720
    Likes Received:
    11,259
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Maybe those Republicans most in need of cash do not want Trump's public support helping to raise cash for them. Did you ever consider that?
    These are areas with many Democrat swing voters and independents, which the candidate would need to win in that district. Trump's association would not be very helpful to them.

    You seem to have made the assumption that because you don't see Trump helping candidates, that is because Trump does not care about those candidates. That rests on the premise that Trump could easily do something to help those candidates, doesn't it.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2022
  7. submarinepainter

    submarinepainter Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    21,596
    Likes Received:
    1,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    he will lose and the country needs someone and Democrats are not it.
     
    yangforward likes this.
  8. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2021
    Messages:
    5,792
    Likes Received:
    5,680
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    IMO: Tough bleep.
    People made a choice in 2020 with a corrupt media and a corrupt FBI engineering it. If Biden wins, then America gets what it deserves.
    Those same networks are out there, ready to bury the lede for Biden again. Obviously if Biden wins, America has not been punished enough. The electorate in 2020 was too rich, to full of themselves, and too fat, dumb, and happy, and took their eye off their wallets.
    To hear the MSM tell it, people prefer todays circumstances to the Trump years. Who am I to tell them they cannot have eight whole years of it? The media tells me the first two were great!
    The base inflation rate for the next six years is expected to be reverse averaged to around 5% per year. That is 30% accumulated by the next election. For asset owners, our wealth will grow. For others, it will be a daily struggle. (Especially with a car payment tacked on of $30K plus insurance for an electric car.)
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2022
    submarinepainter and yangforward like this.
  9. submarinepainter

    submarinepainter Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    21,596
    Likes Received:
    1,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I liked many of Trumps policies but not him. I stopped voting for R or D's after Bush the younger but had considered R for the next cycle but not if it is Trump
     
  10. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2021
    Messages:
    5,792
    Likes Received:
    5,680
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It’s more about the attitude toward the economy and the function of government.
     
  11. gorfias

    gorfias Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2012
    Messages:
    5,501
    Likes Received:
    6,125
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I cannot think things have gone much differently since something like 17% of Biden voters voiced regret for supporting him after finding out about the laptop.

    Saying we should distance ourselves from Trump sounds like those who beamed that President Bush had "cut the apron strings from Reagan"... and then promptly became an out of touch one termer. Never take advice from your enemies.

    ITMT: Even Tucker Carlson worries about the mid-terms. The GOP still has its Mitch McConnell problem. There are proverbial $1K bills sitting on the side walk if only he'd pick them up, but there he is, talking of vague generalities. He is against crime. Stunning. He wants an efficient government that doesn't waste. Where is my fainting couch.

    Gonna be an interesting election.
     
    FatBack likes this.
  12. yangforward

    yangforward Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2022
    Messages:
    3,393
    Likes Received:
    1,447
    Trophy Points:
    113
    People should pay more attention to facts and less to rhetoric, to the blah blah.

    Were we at risk of nuclear war with Trump? No.

    But now we are paying for a proxy war against Russia in the Ukraine, on Russia's doorstep, and the risk of further escalation has been mentioned a number of times.

    Are we safer with Biden? Of course not, it raises the question of what his overall motives actually are.

    And according to the blah blah, Russia was chased out of Ukraine with its tail between its legs. Sounds picturesque but is it true?

    After immensely popular photo op Zelenskyyy claimed the war was all but won, he made 18 further requests for money and weapons.

    The two stories don't agree so which one is right?

    Or just pick whichever one you prefer.
     

Share This Page