Spain Will Remove Catalonia Leader, Escalating Secession Crisis

And this is why our second amendment is so important the federal government would think twice before stripping a state of its states government and powers because they know the have an armed civilian population to deal with

 

I'm with the secessionists on this one. Rajoy released his police goons on the voters and viciously beat them. A far better move would have to let the people vote and then have it invalidated if it violated Spain's Constitution.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump tries these same tactics against Americans exercising their rights. He seems to be moving more and more towards a fascist police state.

 

Didn't we ourselves already dealt with this issue of secession and the side that tried to seceded lost?

 

Now the Catalonia people have no choice but to accept the tyrannical terms because they have no other choice they are disarmed and helpless
Do you think Spain would have made the same decree if the Catalonia people were armed like we are here in the States? not risking an armed conflict and massive bloodshed with its own people as the world watches
I would believe they would have avoided that outcome at all cost and made a compromise at the negotiation tables instead of stripping them of their rights and government

 

Lol...what the **** are you talking about?

 

Smells like a civil war to me.

 

how so only one side is armed Thanks to European style gun control and banning
the main Spanish government have the Catalonia people under their tyrannical thump with the Catalonia people having no means to fight back

 

Like I said:

And the business community (particularly important to true Catalans) is quite concerned:

 

Breaking:

 

BREAKING: Catalonia Parliament Declares Independence from Spain.

Hold onto your tapas!

 

Here's more:

 

The reason why the EU has expressed such solidarity with Spain and none of the Members support Catalonia:

 

This one is a straighforward case. If you believe in the constitution and the rule of law Catalan separatists have no leg to stand on. Legally, the legitimate Spanish government has every right to stop them from illegal acts of secession. Incidentally, I lived in Barcelona for over a year. Catalan women can drive a man crazy. In a positive way. It's really easy way out for Catalans. A new election is the way forward. Once they elect their legal representatives they could organise another referendum. The legal one which will be inclusive of all Catalans. Not like this most recent illegal one, where only 40% people voted. The silent majority wants to stay on Spain. Businesses are leaving.

 

EVER?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.f69a2b254ddc

if he says it internal then why is him commenting on it?

 

Here's more:

 

Seems like things are proceeding according to Madrid's plan:

• Not much resistance.
• Separatist parties coopted to run in the elections Madrid scheduled.
• Mossos turning over evidence of command's malfeasance by failure to suppress the referendum.
• Growing concern as radical pronouncements chase business from the region (over 2,000 Catalonian business have relocated their tax domicile).
• Still no EU or international recognition (or sign of this).
• Fracturing separatist coalition.
• Surging conservative campaign.
• Leading separatists incarcerated and unable to campaign in regional election...

The 7-8 consellers and regional vice-president incarcerated in Madrid, likely will face charges and mount their defences before Puigdemont and the four who fled with him have their extradition hearings in Brussels (November 17). I'd expect Puigdemont and the 4 consellers with him could get extradition dismissed since sedition is not a criminally prosecutable crime under Belgian law. I suspect the vice-president and 7-8 consellers incarcerated in Madrid could be held for trial (especially if Puigdemont and the other 4 aren't extradited back). It is not clear to me the legal predicaments of these separatists favors their campaigns in the regional election. Some analysts think this will provoke an even stronger movement for secession, but surveys don't show much of this. On the other hand, the business community is beginning to speak up, they're criticizing the former regional government's forecasts for an independent Catalonian economy, the region's banks are worried about getting saddled with Catalonian debt. Some Catalonian anti-secessionist politicians have expressed strong criticism of economists in academia who've delivered highly optimistic reports and analyses anticipating a seamless transition by the region into a fully-fledged EU members under the Eurozone umbrella, which doesn't seem at all likely.

 

Spain’s Supreme Court inclined to release the imprisoned former Consellers and vice-president: https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/07/actualidad/1510081884_087301.html

Rajoy thinks it would be preferable the incarcerated former vice-president and Consellers be released and allowed to campaign: https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/07/actualidad/1510082695_300008.html

Of course, they could still be convicted and sentenced to jail, though I doubt this could happen before the regional election on December 21. It would be very unfortunate if any of these former Consellers and vice-president Oriol Junqueras won the election, and then got convicted and sentenced to jail, look bad for Spain. I expect there will be convictions and doubt any of this lot will prevail in the regional election.

 

In the most recent national electoral survey (dated October 29th) has center-right Ciudadanos surging, the incumbent party PP leads with 28% (losing 8/10ths of a percent), the socialists in the PSOE lost 7/10th of a percent falling to 24.2%, lefty Podemos lost almost two percent and is now at 18.5% while center right Ciudadanos gained 3 full percentage points rising to 17.5%:



Podemos (in purple) favors constitutional reform, but it isn’t clear they favor Catalonian independence and they need to propose an alternative to the status quo that appeals to both the center-left Socialist Party’s supporters (who oppose Catalonian independence) as well as Catalan nationalists.

Ciudadanos (orange) is center right and opposes Catalonian independence.

ERC and PDeCat are both pro-independence.

PNV and Bildu are Basques.

These are figures in a national survey, the Catalonian (and Basque) parties are included because they have representatives in the Spanish legislature, everyone in Spain is concerned over Catalonian independence and following the statements and positions political figures from the various parties are expressing.

Surveys in Catalonia are less clear, I’ve seen reports both independence and opposition to it are rising.

 

Carme Forcadell, president of the Catalonian Parlament, was released on bail yesterday. She tweeted: “I return home with a clean conscience of having acted properly to guarantee the freedom of expression of the sovereign Parlament.”

Forcadell’s attorney turned in her passport.

The treasurer of Asamblea Nacional Catalana (a political organization) posted the bail having announced yesterday their creation of a “resistance account” to cover the legal expenses of the Parlament’s members under investigation for sedition, rebellion and misappropriation.

Forcadell has been ordered to appear once a week at the probation office.

The other 4 separatists members of the Parlament facing the same charges were also released on bail, though they’ve been given a week to gather the money. http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/11/10/5a057c7e46163f46498b456e.html

Forcadell’s case is interesting since she was a very outspoken advocate for secession, but in her court appearance and statements to the judge appeared quite contrite and denied her advocacy. The case against her is also much stronger as she used her position to specifically enact legislation contrary to established procedures and against judicial decisions of the regional courts.

The Supreme Court wants the regional election campaign to be held without candidates in jail. Judge Llarena sentenced Forcadell to jail, but released on posting bond. The fate of the five members of the Parlament, who all are out on bail, differs from that of seven of the eight former Consellers denied bail and held in jail.

It is expected the cases brought against all separatist political figures will be consolidated, in fact the prosecutors have already petitioned for this. The different approach by the two courts reflects their different jurisdictions as the members of the Parlament (along with Forcadell) were charged before removal from office, after Puigdemont declared independence, while the former Consellers were ousted first, then charged and arrested.

The Audiencia Nacional lacks jurisdiction over the members of the Parlament as they had legislative immunity when they perpetrated the crimes charged. The Audiencia Nacional is the Spanish high court for crimes affecting the national interest, e.g. drug trafficking, large-scale fraud and certain crimes committed abroad. The Supreme Court has jurisdiction in cases on legislative immunity. Thus the former Consellers (Puigdemont and the 7 others) likely will be remanded from the Audiencia Nacional to the Supreme Court in order to avoid the possibility different sentences be handed down for the same crimes. http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/11/09/5a045c5eca47410a438b45d0.html?cid=MNOT23801&s_kw=3

 

Great chart/map!

 

It gives one a notion of the nature of the problem. Here's a map of medieval Europe:

Each "duchee", and "royaume" has some claim to a historical sovereignty and these each were composed of different fiefdoms which previously had been independent.

 

Russian interference here too!

This is not surprising, the internet makes it easy to interfere with democratic processes by disseminating false information in the midst of an electoral campaign. It has happened before, it is claimed to have taken place in the US and France.

People reading online postings and social media messages should realize this is just as with advertising; there's lot's of falsehood -but unlike with advertising, no penalty.

 

Many of my own observations noted here already confirmed in this Wall Street Journal article:

I described this rebirth or recovery of patriotism rather than nationalism because the “historic reasons” the Spanish flag was seen as divisive by some in Spain, was Franco’s use of it precisely “as a symbol of national unity”. Spaniards who express patriotism are (or until recently have been) branded ‘fachas’ (fascists) due to the association of patriotism with nationalism and nationalism with Franco’s rule.

This was a dumb Catalonian mistake, one would expect such a reaction as ultimately the separatists are telling the rest of the country that they are better than them. I think this was induced by the unnatural suppression of patriotism due to it’s association with Franco’s nationalism. What nobody realized, even outside Catalonia, was the strength of this patriotic feeling as literally millions of Spaniards poured into the streets all over the country and even in Catalonia, to demand national unity.

This is another point I raised and it is more important for Catalonians since they are culturally a much more business-minded community, this is why they are the commercial powerhouse of Spain, why with 16% of the population they generate 20% of the GDP. Catalonians are enterprising and innovative, they attract investment and facilitate development more than anywhere else in Spain.

The separatists underestimated the reaction in their own business community, merchants and manufacturers are concerned over the uncertainties, they want stability, rule of law and judicial certitude. The financial services sector which is particularly important in the region, depends on an intensive and interlaced national regulatory system involving deposit guarantees and accounting oversight, all of which would disappear with independence. Other heavily regulated sectors such as chemical and pharmaceutical production are in a similar situation.

I noted this as well. Cynically one would expect EU members with their own secessionists to be reluctant to support Catalonian separatists, they don’t want to encourage this sort of thinking at home. The clear indication neither EU membership nor use of the Euro would be forthcoming to an independent Catalonia was a serious setback inexplicably unanticipated by the regionalists.

Madrid is proceeding very meticulously, there is no evidence of any nationalism in the conduct of those temporarily substituting for the ousted separatist government figures. The changes we’ve seen so far a very minor, there are efforts to reduce separatist doctrine in regional government decisions and the functionariat is cooperating. Today it was reported Madrid had drafted the training manuals for procedures in the scheduled regional election and that the Catalonian authority in charge of electoral oversight had not been removed, that he confirmed he would abide by the instructions from Madrid.

I noted this too, Forcadell’s about face was remarkable, almost unbelievable, she was a vociferous advocate of independence, she rallied protesters from the Parlament’s balcony. I think she is trying to deceive the court, sought to avoid jail.

I agree and have described this division among the separatists before. They all agree independence would be wonderful if Catalonia became an EU member and could use the Euro and some differ on what arrangements could be made with Spain to accomplish this, but others want an immediate and complete break, no transition and no concessions, and then they each have their own political ideology for how they’d want to see the region governed. There are at least five separatist factions (PDeCat, Podemos, Junts Pel Si, Esquerra and CUP) and they formed a weak coalition that gave them a majority. This coalition has already broken apart.

I don’t expect the separatists will prevail in the regional election, I expect most people in the region have come to realize there are more people around them who are opposed, they’ve seen the detrimental effect separatism is having on business and it has become evident the different factions that formed the coalition have their own agendas.

 

Reviewing Spanish media I get the impression the regional elections in Catalonia will feature higher voter turnout than in the past. Regional elections are like the midterms in the US, generally of little interest unless there’s some controversy.

I think this is an important difference with the Brexit referendum, people in Catalonia are much more aware of the consequences of their vote. The irredentists are determined Madrid should know they want out, while others are more concerned with peace, stability and prosperity.

Analysts agree the level of participation rises with income and education, lower classes, the “working poor” and marginalized are ignorant, don’t appreciate the importance of this regional election in particular, they see the same sort of politicians doing the same sort of deals for the same self-interested reasons taking no account for their needs or interests.

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias (leader of lefty party “Podemos”) is concerned the Catalonian efforts at independence have awakened fascist nationalism in Spain.

I noted this pleasant resurgence of patriotism, Iglesias (like all lefties) can’t distinguish patriotism from fascism. The fact remains that Catalonia experienced massive immigration from the rest of Spain in the sixties as industrialization in this region in particular took off, and that those immigrants (with children raised there who speak Catalonian) don’t feel (and are not seen) as Catalonians.

El Mundo speculates on the regional elections:

 

Two or three days ago the Spanish authorities withdrew their extradition request for Carles Puigdemont, I think this was because Belgium does not have a crime that fits the description of sedition in Spanish law and there was a risk the Belgian court could grant extradition on condition Puigdemont (and his also exiled consellers) not be charged with sedition.

This is an elegant solution and it has the effect of removing one of Puigdemont's claims; that he had to remain in Belgium to respond to their judicial proceedings. Now it is evident he cannot return simply because he would get arrested, charged and likely convicted -and that he would prefer not to get thrown in jail.