I see a real danger of another 2008 style collapse if either Bernacke don't announce QE 3 or if the european union dont re-capitalize the banking system there. As people lose confidence they will dump equities and this can push more and more margin calls on hedge funds...this is exactly what happened in 2008. So what can you do? A) protect your stocks......you can buy puts on SPDRS buy a put on the dow 30.....also puts on the NASDAQ 100. Be carefull about bonds, especially municipals...if there is a meltdown then some municipalities might default. C) buy puts on gold mines....this will protect you somewhat in case things turn ugly Remember...this is just a warning of what "MIGHT" happen....there is always the chance that the goons will get their act together and prevent it. This is an election year...there is no way Bernacke wants a colapsing banking system and another 4 million unemployed americans! once the dust settles it will be a heck of a buying opportunity!
Yes, Once the DOW gets even closer to 10,000 Emma and Joe in the heartland will realize they didn't follow the formula. At 50 only 50% should be bet in the stock market. They will even find out they didn't have to pay the 10% penalty but generally could have switched to CD's (essentially cash) all along in most 401k and in IRA. The millionaires I know are out. Insider trading has been like 7 to one sell for a month. Retail sales adjusted for inflation and without gasoline has not robustly rebounded. How are we not already in a recession and how will a stock market crash not make it worse? This guy for the IMF says it straight- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589210888153064.html
but once the dust settles there will be a heck of a buying opportunity. Either the DOW at 9,000 or oil stocks at much lower prices....once the dust settles there should be a resumption of the upward trend! but the DOW will remain in this trading range so long as we are in this phoney economy!
I'll be happy when the dow drops below 7000 back into the low 6000, that is the bottom. We are still at the top when the dow is over 10000. We got a ong way to go before I buy in. But it is a great time to sell and profit. Capital gains tax in the uSA is going to be 15% this year. but with congress planning to increase revenue via CG tax next year the CG tax may go back to 27%. That's almost twice for you slow people. Forget what the wall street spinners say, the reason for any market crash will be because people are taking profit, not losing their buts off. Only those who buy high and sell low are affected negatively. Are you a loser?
if Bernacke keeps monetizing then the DOW might not fall to 6,000.....however the DOW is falling if you compare the DOW to real money......when you compare the DOW to gold it has been falling since 2009
I have not owned any appreciable amount of stocks since August '07...so I do not really care for myself. But it is VERY interesting to watch.
If the president changes to conservative in 2012 we should see a few days of significan 10% to 20% loss on the DOW in a months time between now and summer of next year. I expect it to hit in the low 6000s. But because of the industry shift the bottom will not last long at the mid 6000s, perhaps a few days at best. the markest will climb back to about 7800 real fast. and then reise to 9000 within 90 days to 120 days of the bottom. Gold will allways be a novelty investment for me, and I would never go into any precious metal funds or investments at this time. Watch the bond market to see when it maxes out or becomes oversaturated, you can expect the industry shift to happen within about 90 days later.
I only get in when the market bottoms out. Not worth guessing the corrections and major dips. And when you get in low, the only time you lose is when it goes lower, and that does not happen too often once every 8 to 10 years. And, it's easy to follow economic patterns and it's politicial influences.
I personally dont trade the markets as you never really know when the bottim is....and I dont want to be caught short when it starts climbing again!
I just don't understand those who can look around them and still bet it all on the market. Is it that our world really believes "everyone else is doing it" means anything. Just like "reality" TV does everyone want to return to high school? The crashing stock market both reflects the tanking economy and will cause it to crash further. It could be 12 years before it recovers. Hard to know when to buy in but at least you aren't waiting to lose.
We may get some help in reaching a bottom or, at least, a temporary one in the near future. My own business has been a pretty good barometer of the overall economy. I think you are going to see some very sad things about the third quarter.
The public and the press continue to look to government for economic solutions. Government isn't the place to look. But government will continue to "do" thinks to placate the press and the public. Nothing can fix the economy except the economy itself. As a society we have been doing everything in our power to bring the economy down over the past 40 years - outsourcing, deficit spending etc. etc. QE3 will do what QE1 and 2 did - devalue the dollar further. On the plus side, it does make imports more expensive. Enough of that and we could begin turning around all those years of outsourcing.
"The public and the press continue to look to government for economic solutions. Government isn't the place to look.' How does it feel to decide to ignore continually the elephant in the room? I just read this book Zombie Economics. If you are so naive to believe that government doesn't -always- throw its weight around that is amazing. Currently you may applaud that all you are in favor of is hand off as if the sainted boys on Wall Street will somehow care. If so, why? As this Great Depression begins - spend. Government according to that eight grade economics course must. Now - or kiss your grandchildren's coming happy childhoods goodby.
Yes, they have been an interesting few weeks, particularly reading threads like this from a month ago. Since then gold is down from 1800 to 1630 and the Dow is up over 1000 points to 11,800 as of today.
Other then outsourcing (I think outsourcing is inevitable until all the nations of the world have relatively the same taxation/administration/production/employment costs) - I agree with every single word (for what it's worth). America can get back on it's feet when it looks to itself and NOT it's 'leaders' to fix the economy. Politicians are often lawyers and the Fed is full of bean counters - neither profession has a clue how to properly run a business...except into the ground. And 95+% of them either KNOW NOTHING of how to properly run an economy and/or are monumentally corrupt. They should not be let ANYWHERE NEAR the U.S. economy.
I know you are not smart enough to realize this but we are still in the danger zone......no QE was anounced and so the system is slowly imploding....now it might hold on a little longer ( several months) but guaranteed without another round of QE eventually the system will collapse.....I may not be able to say exactly when but its guaranteed......mind you should QE 3 be anounced then of course it kicks the can ahead another several months
uhmmmmm the DOW is still at the 1999 levels of 11,000 and gold is still up substantially since January 2011 nice try though
If people look at the gold chart: http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html Ever since late '08, gold has been steadily rising. But starting in July it went parabolic...got WAY ahead of itself. But if you draw a line from late '08 until today...it's right on schedule. Same thing with silver, except it started to get ahead of itself in mid/late 2010. But again, you draw a line from late '08 until now...it's right on schedule...actually, if anything, it's still a little ahead of itself. http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
actually you can draw a chart from 2002 as this is when the gold market boom started from a low of 350 in 2001 I think......it stalled a few times but has been steadily rising since then.
Very true. But since I had NO idea about the gold/silver 'boom' going on before '07...I try not to think about it.
