STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

1. Could you source the 2% morality rate? (and I mean something from April, not January)

2. Jeanine Pirro what? What is she saying and what does that have to do with me?

3. What is your statement, "COVID-19 would have infected 30% of Americans and killed a million people" based on?

 

Although it's perfectly reasonable to hold leadership accountable, what you are holding it (well Trump) accountable for are things that no one is advocating, Internal travel controls? Who is advocating that? What "leadership" would be blockading communities?

Saying that Fauci would really be saying something (unspecified) different but for Trump is political. What would he say? He's been on every news show on a more or less regular basis for a month. What's his secret that he's sitting on?

Also you never explained why you think our ability to test is decreasing rather than increasing?

 

This had nothing to do with your statement in post #336 which I responded to in post #351. Then you went off on a tangent asking my plan(?)

Anyway originally you said:

What I wanted to know is why if you are opposed to "culling the herd" for COVID-19 but not for the annual flu? 60,000 dead old people is 60,000 dead old people right? Their deaths could be prevented the same way, social distancing and stay at home orders, but we don't do that every flu season.

I doubt I'm going to get a real answer from you, because I've noticed that when it comes to COVID-19, most of he hysterical posts here are based on misinformation and of course hysteria. This bug doesn't remain on hard surfaces for 10 days.


Also the '68 pandemic killed 100,000 Americans. We are NOT on track for COVID-19 killing that many Americans.

 

In Italy, the death rate stands at about 13 percent, and in the United States, around 4.3 percent, according to the latest figures on known cases and deaths. Even in South Korea, where widespread testing helped contain the outbreak, 2 percent of people who tested positive for the virus have died, recent data shows.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-death-rate.html

There's a model that predicts even worse.

Without intense government intervention, the novel coronavirus could infect 7 billion people and kill 40 million this year, according to a new report from researchers at the Imperial College of London.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cov...people-could-die-without-interventions-2020-3

 

I can't talk to you, I don't even know why I try. I have told myself dozens of times to avoid your meaningless trolling and it's my fault that I fall into the same old trapped merry-go-round with your cycle of nonsense.

That's it, no more. Goodbye. Enjoy your meaningless internet trolling presence.

 

Dodge noted.

 

Why are you even responding to my comment? It wasn't directed to you.

 

This didn't age well. I think we'll end April with "just" 60,000 dead, and that's with everything shut down. If we keep losing 2,000+ a day, I don't see how we avoid 100,000 deaths, even doing what we're going. We've stabilized, but that stabilization means 30,000 new cases a day, and the mortality rate of those cases (probably because we're prioritizing testing for sick people) is around 5% now.

 

Well I'll say thanks, that article was actually informative! But the title, Why We Don’t Know the True Death Rate for Covid-19, kind of undercuts your argument of a 2% death rate.

"Covid-19 may prove to be less lethal than initial predictions, with an infection fatality rate of under 1 percent, as suggested in an editorial published in the New England Journal of Medicine by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, both of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the C.D.C."

Seems likely as we gather more data the death rate will decline.

When it comes to models, you should use the latest ones. That one is a month old and outdated. Try this:
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/0...l-raises-more-red-flags-on-reliability-910274

"In an update published Friday, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) revised its expected Aug. 4th coronavirus death toll down by a whopping 8,533 deaths, thus reducing the final toll from 68,841 deaths to 60,308.

The previous death toll of 68,841 was itself a revised toll — one significantly lower than the IHME’s original 240,000 death estimate."

60K? Now we're talking about annual flu type numbers.

 

I'm not trolling, but I do recognize in our current hysteria driven news cycle, a rational man who look at these things empirically is most unwelcome.

 

Read my post. I did NOT advocate travel controls.

However, I certainly would advocate leadership that identifies the danger posed by that travel. And, the fact that governors allowed stuff like Mardi Gras and Spring Break is unconscionable.

Today, we have international travel, too, by the way.

Please reread my post about the limits of what Dr. Fauci can do and what he can't do.

 

I read yesterday that the apparent rate of deaths to infection is actually just .2% Of course most mortality victims are the elderly from age 60 and upwards. As some wag noted some time ago, the Corona Virus is mostly a Boomer Doomer. As a boomer myself I sort of feel important to have an age specific virus lunging for my throat. I'm number one!

 

The death rate (specifically, the case fatality rate) has been increasing, as we gather more numbers. The mortality rate of the cases we've identified is now 5%.

 

We're not counting all deaths from COVID, because we don't have any way of doing that.

Those who watch the death rate of various areas note that since COVID19 there has been a huge spike in deaths outside of hospitals. There is no indication of where all these deaths are coming from, as it doesn't correspond to crime or other possible sources.

These don't get tested, because we don't have enough tests for LIVE people, let alone the dead.

I would watch more than just the numbers on these predictive models. There are numerous factors that will affect the number who die. And, those factors change over time.

If states open up more, that will change the number of deaths. Yesterday, the city of Mexico Beach, FL opened its beaches to "Essential activities like swimming, running, fishing, walking, biking, hunting, and hiking "

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open

Hunting on public beaches is an "essential activiey" in Florida!!

 

By tomorrow night, the virus will have killed 40,000 Americans.

There will be many more than 60,000 deaths.

 

OK I'll just wait until you can post something that clears up your previous posts then. You brought up travel but say you are not bringing up travel controls...well OK why bring up travel? What was your point? What should be doing?

 

Errr not according to that linked article.

 

The death rate should have been the most accurate bit of data we have in this, but current guidance doesn't require a positive COVID-19 test so those numbers will be inflated I suspect. I don't understand why you think we have so few tests that we can't test every person suspected of dying from COVID-19.

 

I stated what we should be doing.

Please remember that much of our policies have no "control" element. We do shut businesses and some public facilities. In some places there are actual controls on other activities - like group meetings.

 

What is your claim that there will be "many more than 60,000 deaths" based on? I literally just posted a link about the most current model to you on post #385. Did you bother to read my reply? Or do you only believe the models from last month and don't believe the models from this week?

 

"Models" are like Election Predictions.

UNTIL we actually see the Final Number anything is possible.

It is what it is.

 

I don't disagree with that, which is why shutting down the US economy on the basis of models that have already proven to be wildly off seems insane, but that's where we are.

 

Travel is an important means of transmission. It's how COVID came here. It's how it is spreading across the USA. Viruses don't have wings or feet.

I've been clear in TWO posts know concerning what I suggested INSTEAD of travel controls inside the USA.

Bsides, ttempting to create travel controls would be exceptionally difficult - i don't believe we could do that in any meaningful way.

How many times do you need to be told exactly the same thing?

 

There is NO model that comes within a country mile of suggesting we don't have something to be seriously concerned about.

Our actuals fully support that as well.

Medical science AND business executives have statd that we need three times the testing we have today in order to support plans on opening our economy.

Trump has come up with as many as 4 or 5 separate groups that he has chartered with planning for opening our economy. Each time HIS groups tell him the same thing.

And, each time Trump tells America that we should open now - regardless of testing!!