The AL-SEN Class 2 special election returns thread

Links for the results:

NYT
CBS
DAILY BEAST
WAPO
POLITICO
ALABAMA VOTES

The polls close at 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)

Some county-by-county electoral history in the postings to follow. I will be posting results as they come in.

-Stat

 

Pure party pokitics at its worst. Is Alabamas hatred of democrats override their bad candidate?

 

When we look at the recent electoral history of Alabama in terms of electoral maps, a pretty consistent pattern appears, often called the "belt". Here we see it at the senatorial level. Here the electoral maps from 2-man races in the recent history of this state:













So, in races that were not even remotely close, the Democratic counties (here in red instead of blue) look like a belt that goes through the lower-middle part of the state.

In races that are closer, the electoral map of AL looks different than this:



That was Jeff Session's first election, where he won by about 7 points and here you can see that the Democrat won counties well outside of the "belt".

And this race:



That was Richard Shelby's first election, which he won with a razor-thin margin.

So, one of the first signs of the night tonight will be how Jones is doing in counties outside of the "belt".

Next posting of mine: Presidential data from Alabama.

 

They actually close at 7 PM CDT (Which is 8 PM EDT).

 

On the presidential level:











So, the last 5 presidential cycles were truly 2-man races and all blowouts for the Republican and by and large,, it is only the "belt" that the Democrat wins, sometimes also Birmingham to the north.

Now, here is how the last truly close presidential contest in Alabama looked:



1980 was the year in which Ronald Reagan captured Alabama by an extremely narrow margin. If you look at the map, Jimmy Carter actually won a majority of counties, but Reagan won Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and three key counties in the "belt".

So, in order for Jones to actually be competitive, he will need to

a.) Hold all of the belt
b.) win big in Birmingham, Mobil, Huntsville and collar counties around those cities.
c.) retake former Democratic counties on the border to both MS and GA.

The point is, as the returns come in, start to look at how the big counties are performing.

 

Correct, which is why I specifically wrote EDT

Like it or not, we focus times on the East Coast, since the center of power in the USA is on the East Coast.

 

So...



With 43% of the vote in, Moore (R) is up by +5.6%. But Jones is winning in all of the biggest cities, where a Democrat usually only wins Birmingham. In 2016, when Shelby won overall by +28.09%, Democrat Crumpton won Jefferson County (Birmingham) by +4.13% and with 51.99% of the vote. Right now, Democrat Jones is winning that same county 81.8% of the vote, a crushing +64.3% margin, and that county, the largest in Alabama, has only reported 63 of 172 precincts. Jones is also winning in Mobile with 77.5%. Republican Shelby won Mobile County in 2016 with 57.6%. And that county is only 20% in. Jones is winning in Huntsville with over 57% of the vote. Republican Shelby won that same county with almost 61% in 2016.

So, Moore is ahead, but the large metro areas are still mostly out, so this is why no one is calling this race yet. Still, it's looking more and more that Moore will prevail with a lean margin, when all is said and done.

One thing is for sure: the write-in votes are not going to hit the 5% barrier, which means that those votes will not be officially counted, according to the rules that the Alabama BOE put out about 2 weeks ago.

 

With almost 76% of the precincts counted, Moore's lead is now at less than +3:



In Jefferson County, 83 of 172 precincts have now reported. Jones is now at 83% of the vote. In Mobile County, with 55 of 190 precints in, Jones is winning with 61%. In Montgomery County, with 38 of 99 precincts in, Jones is winning with 72%.

At 48% overall, Jones is posting the best percentage for any Democrat for Senate in this state since 1986, 31 years ago.

Still, Moore is ahead and it remains to be seen if the many votes out in the big urban areas will be enough to offset his lead.

In a number of counties, Moore is overperforming over his 2012 win for Justice on the AL SC.

 

With 81% of precincts in, it's now less than a single digit race. Moore +0.7:



A huge dump of votes came in from Jefferson County came in, with 120/172 precincts in, but Jones percentage has moved down from 82% to 76%.

 

It is looking like Jones is going to to barely squeak by.

 

With almost 86% of precincts in, it is now a tie, 49.2 to 49.2:



In the upper belt of the state, most all of Moore's counties are officially 100% in, excluding provisionals, I assume. The biggest 4 counties are the counties where there is room to go. This is something a Democrat has not experienced in Alabama in a long, long time.

 

Wow! It looks like Jones won.

 

Yep, it is over. Moore lost.

 

Counties with considerable votes (precincts) still out:

Mobile County, only 64 of 190 precincts in: Jones winning 57.5 to 41.2, +16.4%. That's a +10,000 vote lead that could easily grow to +20,000 for Jones
Montgomery County, only 48 of 99 precincts in: Jones winning 72.9 to 27.1, +45.8%. That's a +30,000 vote lead that could easily grow to +60,000 for Jones.
Jefferson County, 130 of 172 precincts in: Jones winning 73.8% to 24.5%, +49.3%. That's a +73,000 vote lead that will likely grow to +76,000 for Jones
Madison County, 64 of 73 precincts in: Jones winning, 57.3 to 39.7, +17.6%. That's a +17,000 vote lead that will likely grow to +18,000 for Jones.


There are no counties of size left out there with precincts still out that went big for Moore.

 

At 10:29 PM, CNN called the US-SEN 2 special race in Alabama for Democratic nominee Doug Jones.

Currently, it's Jones +0.6, likely to grow to Jones +2 when all is said and done.

I personally think that CNN has called the race too early, although I am pretty sure that the call is right.

 

FOX has also called the race for Jones: 10:31 PM

 

The NYT has called the race for Jones.

 

Sell Bitcoin - buy Amazon.

 

WAPO has called the race for Jones

 

Not sure I understand that, but FYI, the NYT called the race for Jones AFTER FOX called the race.

 

So, assuming just a +1 margin for Jones (D), this represents an at least +29 point swing since the last AL Senate election with two candidates on the ballot, where Shelby won by +28.

This is now a statistical FACT.

 

MSNBC just called the race for Jones

 

10:55 EDT: Jones gives his victory speech.

CBS just called the race for Jones.

No word yet on a concession speech by Moore.

 

The AP has called the race for Jones.

 

11:07 PM EDT - Jones' victory speech