Republican Shiela Harsdorf, who won this state Senate Seat by +18.5% in 2012 and by +26.4% in 2016 and has served since 2001, resigned in 2017, setting off a primary race in December 2017. The special general election was held yesterday, January 16th, 2018, with Patty Scharchtner (D), Adam Jarchow (R) and Brian Corriea (L). https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/patty-schactner-wins_us_5a5ec4e2e4b096ecfca88c03 https://www.jsonline.com/story/news...lators-tuesdays-special-elections/1038687001/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ate-seat-in-wisconsin/?utm_term=.dd31a27405a5 The end-stats are not in yet, but Scharchtner, the Democrat, has won by +9%, which means that this state CD just experienced a mathematically verifiable swing of circa +35.4% to the LEFT. That is a massive swing, even larger than the swing in the recent Alabama special senatorial election. For comparison, here are the exact stats on the presidential level for 2016 and 2012 in WI-SN-10: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...GLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047 Romney beat Obama in this LD by +6.4% in 2017. Trump beat Clinton in the LD by +17.3% in 2016. So, a Democrat just flipped a solidly Republican state Senate Seat in the Badger State. And it wasn't even close. When the final canvass is released, I will publish it here on this thread. -Stat
Ok, some more very specific data about WI-LD 10. First, here is is on a map: I encompasses the following 5 relatively large (geographically speaking) counties: Polk, Burnett, Dunn, St. Croix and Pierce. Here the numbers (not yet official): https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_state_legislative_special_elections,_2018 Margin: Shachtner +10.2%, which means that the SWING in the LD over 2016 was: 36.6 points to the left. Here is the breakdown by county: The biggest of those counties in terms of votes is St. Croix. Margin in St. Croix: Schachtner (D) +11.05. That is an important statistic Let's compare St. Croix's performance in the last 12 presidential elections: 2016: Trump +18.4 (statewide: Trump +0.8) - difference = GOP +17.6 2012: Romney +12.1 (statewide: Obama +6.9) - difference = GOP +19.0 2008: McCain +3.7 (statewide: Obama +13.9) - difference = GOP +17.6 2004: Bush 43 +12.3 (statewide: Kerry +0.4) - difference = GOP +12.7 2000: Bush 43 +7.2 (statewide: Gore +0.2) - difference = GOP +7.4 1996: Clinton +13.4 (statewide: Clinton +10.3) - difference = DEM +3.1 1992: Clinton +8.4 (statewide: Clinton +4.4) - difference = DEM +4.0 1988: Dukakis +6.6 (statewide: Dukakis 3.6) - difference = DEM +3.0 1984: Reagan +5.7 (statewide: Reagan +9.2) - difference = DEM +3.5 1980: Carter +4.3 (statewide: Reagan +4.7) - difference = GOP +9.0 1976: Carter +15.6 (statewide: Carter + 1.7) - difference = DEM +13.9 1972: Nixon +6.5 (statewide: Nixon +9.7) - difference = DEM +3.2 We see that from 2000 onward, the Republican has won St. Croix, but more interesting is the difference between the St. Croix margin and the statewide margin. From 2004 onward, St. Croix performed between 12.7 and 19.0 better for the GOP than the overall statewide margin. Go back to 1976, where St. Croix performed for the Democratic nominee almost 14 points better than the statewide margin. So, this middle-sized county (population) has taken a decidedly big turn to the Right. For a Democrat who have won this county in 2018 really is statistically important news. -Stat
