The Deterioration of the UK

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by kazenatsu, Mar 9, 2024.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Entire sections of the UK are crumbling. And the media aren't asking why.
    There are now areas in this country where life expectancy is actually dropping, and in some areas below the retirement age.

    Public services are falling apart, they're systematically dysfunctional, they're crisis-ridden. Our GDP is crumbling, children are growing up shorter, they're dying younger, and we barely hear a thing about why it's happening, or even that it's happening at all in our press.

    That is why Byline Times traveled across the UK to find out exactly what's going and bring you the truth about why the UK is falling apart.
    I traveled to Blackpool and found out why residents are saying their city is crumbling. They told me the media haven't visited the town in months, and that is a huge failure of our media.
    There's a particular reason they aren't talking about this. Right-wing papers don't want you to know the truth about what's happening in this country, and that's because the policies, the government officials, and the situations that have led to this happening are the policies that they pushed on the front pages of their newspaper for decades. Things like Brexit and austerity from the Conservative government are some of the key reasons why the UK and its services are falling apart. And those papers endorse the people and the policies that allowed that to happen. So they don't want you reading the truth ... for a country to function you need an informed population, filled with people who know what is going on."

    Byline Times , March 2024
    TikTok video - bylinetv


    He blames "the Right". But I think his claims would be equally true about the Left -- and I'm particularly referring to the complicated web of effects large scale immigration has had on the British economy.
    But this purpose of this thread is not really to focus on the reasons for what's happening -- we can have that debate in another thread. What this thread is about is to look at what is happening, the deterioration of standard of living of the nation.


    The United States is currently experiencing a similar phenomena, but the economy of the UK seems to be falling apart and deteriorating at a faster rate.
    It does seem like the Covid pandemic had something to do with it, or that was the trigger. But there are probably also deeper structural problems that were going on before then.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
  2. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Brexit.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
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  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't think it is caused by Brexit, and think that is just a scapegoat.

    Though I will concede that the British economy adapting to join the European Union, and then later adapting to separate from the European Union, comes with a period of costs, needing time to adjust. In the economy, big sudden changes carry a temporary cost.

    If you blame Brexit, dairyair, maybe you should start a separate thread about it. (You can leave the link here, if you wish)
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
  4. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Isolation is not an answer.
     
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  5. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Britain is not isolated. It still has trade ties to the EU (those ties are just less), and has opened trade ties to the US, and trade is going on with plenty of other countries.

    The fault for cutting off trade ties is mostly the EU's, of course. The Brexit push by conservatives was not a push to want to cut trade ties. (It seems many people are confused about this)
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2024
  6. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Brexit killed international commerce.
     
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  7. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Your very article says that brexit is one of the key causes and yet you won't allow a conversation about brexit in the thread.

    Is there ever were a cautionary tale for the US, brexit is it.
     
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  8. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Do you want to discuss the reasons for 'what is happening' or do you not want to discuss the reasons for what is happening?
     
  9. Media_Truth

    Media_Truth Well-Known Member Donor

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    Too much nuclear power and radioactive waste?
     
  10. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I do want to discuss the reasons for what is happening, but I just do not want that to be the focus on this thread. How about we try to focus most of the discussion on what is happening, and try to assess the overall magnitude of it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  11. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The article quickly mentions Brexit, but doesn't really dwell on it. That's not really what the article was focusing on. But we can have a quick discussion about Brexit if you want.

    I just don't see how Brexit can be blamed for the entirety of the problem.

    The UK was a member of the European Economic area beginning in 1994, and began to more deeply integrate itself into the European economic system around maybe 2004. But what if we think about how things were in the time just before this?
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  12. yangforward

    yangforward Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The British economy is to a large extent a rent-seeking economy.
    And there's the class war,
    and the rich want more immigration because it reduces worker pay
    and pushes up demand for housing and therefore also house prices
    and rents.

    The rich get richer, the majority get poorer and the country overall suffers.

    I lived there for a very long time and that's my take, now I'll watch the video.
     
  13. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Would you try to argue things were bad before Britain became close to the EU?

    Seems to me that Brexit is not to blame.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
  14. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    I would say that things have gone downhill further and that brexit did not remedy them.
     
  15. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Blackpool has it's own local newspaper....
    upload_2024-3-11_15-59-34.png
    full of local news and events both local, national and international....this guy's not a very good writer is he....anyway...

    ...then he should have read the left wing papers if he wants to know "what's happening in this country"....we have both in the UK....from the "Socialist Worker" to the SUN and all stops in between....again this guy's not actually on top of the topic....

    Again...if the guy wants to get a better picture then simply read another paper....


    meh....I'm bored with this....if you want to do the UK down then post better stuff...this is puerile crap....social media gibberish....why do people respond to this garbage
     
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  16. ThirdTerm

    ThirdTerm Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Brexit obviously negatively impacted the UK economy, which grew 5% less over the past eight years than other comparable countries. UK goods trade has underperformed other advanced economies by around 15% since the Leave vote. But there are other factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis. The UK has also recorded higher inflation over the period, with consumer prices rising 31% since mid-2016 compared with 24% in the euro zone.

     
  17. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It wasn't really just "Brexit". The EU cut the UK off from the "European Economic Area" (trade zone) in response to Brexit, something that Brexit supporters did not want.

    That has hurt the UK, to be sure, but it is only one factor, and I do think the UK economy will be able to eventually partially adjust (there's always an economic cost to change and supply chains having to adapt).

    And I do not think trade issues are the only factor that is causing the UK economy to sag.

    France is a good country to compare to the UK because it has many of the same detrimental issues.
    If France is doing better than the UK, then I will accept that is probably has to do with trade issues.
    But it should be remembered that the UK still has a per capita GDP 6.5 per cent higher than France.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2024
  18. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    correct, it's high interest rates....it's doing what the BofE designed them to do.....bring down inflation by cutting consumption.....BofE target rate is 2% inflation...inflation peaked about 6 moths ago at 11% (maxed out domestic/industrial fuel costs) thus interest rates have been increased from 0% to their current level of....what.... 5% ish. The UK has a very high rate of private house ownership ergo renewal of old fixed interest and tracker mortgage re-payments are now much higher that 2 years ago. Wages are under pressure to remain static (as demonstrated by NHS / Rail strikes etc) ergo with higher domestic costs consumption drops and GDP falls back....you are correct, fuel prices and housing costs are the main reason.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2024
  19. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hope you're aware that's not the only, or even the main way, that high interest rates bring down inflation.
    The main factor about that is that when a government Central Bank tries to lower interest rates, what it means is the Central Bank lends out money at lower interest rates. This requires the Central Bank to issue more money to pay for this, which causes inflation.
    Keeping interest rates lower than the market wants them to be causes inflation. "Raising rates" usually just means the Central Bank stops trying to keep them down.

    It could be argued that higher interest rates don't really cut consumption all that much. You're talking about consumption fueled by debt. If I'm thinking about buying a car, do you really think a 4% versus a 1% annual interest rate on the car loan is really going to make a huge difference?
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2024
  20. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    sure.....but that depends upon the opportunity costs....you can buy the car but you may not be able to afford the insurance or petrol.....that's the point of higher interest rates
     
  21. ConcernedEnglishman

    ConcernedEnglishman Active Member

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    Last edited: Mar 30, 2024
  22. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How much of that is "due to Brexit" is debatable. (And not actually really "Brexit" itself, as I've already explained, but rather the UK being ejected out of the European Economic Area Trade zone, which theoretically does not require EU membership)

    The impediments to trade between the UK and EU have some costs which are only temporary (will only last a few years) and some costs which are permanent.

    In 2016 (before Brexit) the EU accounted for 43% of exports from the UK.
    By 2022, that number was only down to 42%.

    sources:
    Statistics on UK-EU trade (europe-solidarity.eu), Briefing paper, Number 7851, 16 December 2019, Matthew Ward
    Statistics on UK-EU trade Research Briefing, Research Briefing International trade Brexit Trade data, 11 May, 2023, Matthew Ward, Dominic Webb

    If 43% of the UK's exports were going to the EU before Brexit, and then two years after Brexit, 42% of the UK's exports are still going to the EU, is that really such a terrible blow to the UK?

    I know that's sort of cherry-picking statistics, but this is suggestive that most of the UK's economic problems are not due to trade issues specific with the EU.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2024
  23. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    indeed, the majority of the UK's exports to the EU were services i.e. banking and insurance. 99% of those services are now undertaken by establishment of an EU regulated office which now carries out those same functions on behalf of the UK based parent. Apart from regulatory costs of establishment there is no difference. For example, Lloyd's of London now has an establishment in Brussels, Lloyd's SA with the London based syndicates merely having an EU licensed and regulated entity trading through Lloyd's SA which writes the insurance risk and immediately reinsures 100% of that risk back to London based entity. Banking works slightly differently with regulated branches etc. but essentially the business is still UK based. So yes, provided the correct regulatory business exists within the EU (costs aside) there is no reason to have any major disruption over the medium to long term.

    I think what one also has to be aware of is re-connecting supply chains and where neccessary establishing new ones and also the opportunity costs of actually doing business with the EU. Indeed one has to do a cost benefit as to whether it is worth it or not base upon the additional level of customs declarations and paperwork involved and the associated costs; but having a good freight forwarding agency tends to alleviates this to a greater extent depending upon the type and amount of trade involved. Coupled with this are the additional costs in tax and duties which may have to collected by the im/exporters on behalf of the domestic and foreign tax authorities.
     
  24. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    ..I think that report is very probably massively inaccurate...the only datum line is Brexit but in between we had COVID and Wars and inflation pressures to name but a few....nothing is noted or factored in....it's a political document designed for a specific audience.
     
  25. ConcernedEnglishman

    ConcernedEnglishman Active Member

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    Wars? I understand the COVID thing, destroyed our economy. Who are we technically at war with?

    Inflation is a big issue and I think businesses use Brexit amongst other things to inflate pricing… am I wrong?
     

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