The Gop just locked up the midterms

Yep.

"For Democrats on the ballot in many of the states that President Trump carried, the fresh government shutdown is unmistakably perilous, especially if it is seen as a strong-armed move to protect undocumented immigrants brought to this country illegally as children. And Mr. Manchin voted to keep the government open, as did four other Trump-state Democrats."
THE NEW YORK TIMES, Shutdown? It Could Be Forgotten in a Trumpian Flash, By JONATHAN MARTIN, JAN. 19, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/blame-government-shutdown.html

 

As I correctly noted, Clinton's popular margin of 2.9 million votes in 2016 was about 1% off what the aggregate of all polls was predicting just before the election. (1.1% to be precise.) In 2012, the final average was 3.2% off.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

If you think that you can provide any credible data that shows otherwise, please do.

 

We dont have a national popular vote for president though. Using meaningless polls to deflect from the meaningful ones is intellectually dishonest at best.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html

 

nope.............https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation

 

Yet another content empty reply.

 

If you are upset by my documenting that polls showed the rapid closing of the gap in the final days of the campaign, you can erroneously persist in parroting that they were inaccurate to justify your fantasizing that all the polls consistently confirming Trump's enduring unpopularity with the American people must be bogus, but we both know the truth, even if only I acknowledge it:

Americans, consistently, as reflected in all public surveys,
disapprove of Trump's performance.​

 

I insist on the truth.....something your kind doesn't like to be about. Oh and your reconciliation **** was already debunked.

Call on your Lame stream and ask them why they aren't harping on McConnell not going with reconciliation. They wont be scared to give you the reality.

 

And there you go again, ignoring meaningful polls in order to prop up a meaning less one.


Why are you so happy being wrong?

 

Read the link

 

but you posted proven lies, so you clearly do no such thing.

whining and clicking your pretty heels together doesn't debunk anything.

 

If you are emotionally incapable of accepting that, in poll after poll, from the moment he assumed the presidency through the present, most Americans consistently confirm that they think Trump stinks, it is just a reality that you cannot deal with.

 

I scanned it. What did you find that was relevant to anything from my posts?

For instance, this is relevant information:

"Polling done by a Democratic “super PAC,” the Senate Majority PAC, revealed that in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia, voters would fault Democrats if DACA, the program shielding the young immigrants from deportation, is what prompted the crisis."
THE NEW YORK TIMES, Shutdown? It Could Be Forgotten in a Trumpian Flash, By JONATHAN MARTIN, JAN. 19, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/blame-government-shutdown.html

 

Pay them a decent wage and they'll do the work.

 

Dumbest title for a thread that I have read today.


It is impossible and nothing can possibly happen between now and November to cause the Dems to win back Congress?

Again....riiiiiight.

And I suppose there is no way the Patriots can lose to the Eagles in the Super Bowl? Because you say so?

Where do Trumpbots get these people...grade schools?

 

Beyond the fact that the ones being argued over are in the united states illegally, and thus continuing to commit a crime with their mere presence?

 

that republicans own the shut down, because they could have used reconciliation to pass any budget they wanted.

 

Florida, Trafalgar and Remington both had Trump winning and Quinnipiac and CBS had Florida tied. RCP averages gave Florida to Trump by 1.2 points.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html


Michigan, Trafalgar taken on 6 Nov had Trump winning by 2 points. Trafalgar was the last pollster to poll Michigan. The rest stopped their polling on the 2nd which by the time 8 Nov rolled around, the rest of the polls were a week behind the 8 ball so to speak.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitN1JxcDRvQkdudkE/view


Pennsylvania, just like Michigan, all the rest of the pollsters stopped polling on the 2nd. That is with the exception of Trafalgar which did their final poll on the 6th. The last poll in Pennsylvania had Trump winning by 2 points.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMiteE9pZkcwQnZ3TVk/view


Wisconsin, of course you’re correct there. But the results was based on 2 polls taken in October and another on 1 Nov and 2 Nov. Again a week old where no one paid attention to Wisconsin.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html


So you have Florida going to Trump, the late polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania giving those states to Trump and Wisconsin which fell off the electoral map a week before the election.

 

11 p.m.

Senate Democrats appear to have derailed a Republican bill aimed at preventing a federal shutdown set to begin as soon as the calendar flips to Saturday.

Friday’s late-night vote means at least a short government closure is all but unavoidable. There have been no clear public signs that the two parties have significantly narrowed their disputes over immigration and the budget.

The House approved the measure Thursday over Democratic opposition. It would keep agencies afloat through Feb. 16, but Democrats want a package lasting just days in hopes of intensifying pressure on the GOP to compromise.

Republicans control the Senate 51-49. The GOP needed 60 votes to prevail, but the tally was 50-48 as of 11 p.m. Eastern time. The Senate is awaiting a final vote from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.


12 midnight

The U.S. government shut down at midnight after Congress failed to resolve a partisan standoff over immigration and spending.

In a late-night vote, Senate Democrats joined to block a bill that would have kept the government running for another four weeks. A flurry of last-minute negotiations failed to beat the deadline.

Democrats have tried to use the Friday night funding deadline to win concessions from Republicans, including an extension of an Obama-era program protecting some young immigrants from deportation. The program is set to expire in March. Republicans sought more time for talks, but Democrats refused.

The shutdown is only the fourth government closure in a quarter-century. It will only partially curb government operations. Uniformed service members, health inspectors, and law enforcement officers are set to work without pay......snip~

https://apnews.com/9cd8d25dceed4191...low&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics



Demos own it.....and now the Country can disown the Democrats

I am willing to take in the DACA kids if all Democrats leave the country immediately and never return.

This would be doing the Country a solid. Win win situation for the Country.

 

The RP did not have to use reconciliation to end the very foolish Schumer Shutdown.
The DDP just gave Trump another easy win - what were they thinking?

 

.

The reality you cannot accept is that it is politically reality that such polling is irrelevant. Democrats can't beat Trump with nobody nor does it matter what Americans think. It only matters what voters would in a comparison to an specific Democratic candidate - and the Democrats don't have one. Therefore, all polling is irrelevant.

Most people did not like Clinton and did not like Trump. Therefore, likability polls were always irrelevant. They are irrelevant now.

 

It is impossible to blame the President on this because NO legislation has ever been presented to him to sign. RATHER responsibility lies with the status quo career politicians in the US Senate.

The ONLY way this could be the President's fault would be IF a budget had been passed and President Trump had vetoed it. Until then, absolutely none of the fault lies with the President whatsoever in the most real and literal way.

President Trump said he would sign what is agreed to in Congress - which means passing a budget. Has any passed legislation been sent to the President? No. Only extra politically uneducated or ideologically blinded people do not understand a President can not sign legislation into law if there is nothing passed to sign.

 

Thinking past the immediate moment was never a bleeding heart strong suit.

 

They couldn't have used it anyways......due to the Midnight deadline to keep the government funded thru the CR. If McConnel would tried to use reconciliation. The Bill would have to go back to the House and then Back to the Senate. Each getting 20 hrs to debate.

Time was up at midnight!.

Its why you don't here the Press or MS Media talking about McConnell could have used reconciliation.

Of course now that the Demos caved.....puts that all into perspective. The Demos and Schumer miscalculated and now blinked, Dropping DACA off a Stopgap measure to fund the government.

 

If you like to imagine that most Americans consistently registering their disapproval of Trump's performance is irrelevant, then it is for you.

 

81-8 Schumer's gamble fails.