The website, 270 to Win, has recently made a small change in its predictions. Although Mitt Romney remains at 191 likely electoral votes, Barack Obama has experienced a slight reduction: from 217 to 201 likely electoral votes. The 16 vote attenuation, presumably, reflects Michigan's move from an Obama state to a tossup state. (Michigan has 16 electoral votes.) I continue to believe that it is more likely that President Obama will carry The Wolverine State than it is that Gov. Romney will do so. After all, Michigan usually goes Democratic in presidential elections. And the auto bailout--unpopular throughout most of the country--does play well in Michigan. Still, unemployment in Michigan remains high. This could hurt the incumbent. Anyway, here is a link to the new electoral map from 270 to Win: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Both Real Clear Politics (map without tossups) and Electoral-vote.com have it as Obama 332 Romney 206 based on recent poll data. It's true that both sites show the only state where Romney is just barely ahead is NC and several states have Obama with a small lead. While Real Clear Politics has a right wing bias and Electoral-vote.com is slightly left of center, they both seem pretty realistic in their analysis of the polls and likely election outcome. I think these maps are pretty accurate. Since Obama holds small leads in FL,VA,NH,OH,WI,IA,CO, and NV it wouldn't be impossible for Romney to win but Obama is a definite favorite at this point. Romney would have to win FL, VA, OH plus 1 other state where Obama appears to be ahead. Romney could possibly win with only 2 of three of FL,VA, and OH but it would be very unlikely (probably virtually impossible if Romney lost FL).
We still have two months to go which is a lifetime in politics. /end cliche I am not overly worried as the polls have been trending in Romney's favor recently especially after he picked Paul Ryan. This whole mideast thing is really about to blow up so I actually think that the next couple of weeks are going to make or break Obama. I hope that Mitt is smart enough to keep his trap shut. They have surrogates for a reason.
