The Looming Ukraine Debacle

Surprisingly Russia is still standing.

Russia with a GDP of 2.24 Trillion in 2022, was badgered by the US with more than ten times
the GDP (25.74 Trillion) and more than ten times the military expenditure - still jokingly referred
to as 'defense'. And NATO with a surprisingly large military expenditure of over 1 Trillion dollars.

Surprisingly Russia is still standing.

 

These numbers are the estimations of the British secret service and as they dont publish their sources, I cannot exactly say how reliable they are. How quick these tanks can reach the battlefield is a matter of logistics and if there is a delay, it will take longer for their tanks to reach the battlefield. No one is talking about "modern" battletanks, luckily that ship has hopefully sailed for Russia as they have a shortage in chips and electronic devices. The 100 tanks the British secret service is talking about will be propably Cold War era stuff, T-72 and stuff of that era.

However what we know is that Russia is outnumbering Ukraine when it comes to artillery ammunition between 5 to 1, at some front sectors up to 10 to 1; we know the EU has given word to the Ukraine to supply them with one million artillery shells last year, but was in fact only capable to deliver 300 K. I dont doubt that there will be improvements, but right now the status quo isnt looking good for the Ukraine. They will be forced to withdraw and create new defense lines waiting for new artillery to arrive plus improving their own production.

 

I never doubted the US army especially but other Western armies in general have the capability to take out the overwhelming numbers Russia brings to battlefield, plus today if the West went all in there would not be overwhelming Russian numbers. Insecurities are

1. Is the US Army still there when the attack on a NATO member is incoming? There are some voices within MAGA Republicans that could leave doubts, the woke left of course in charge of the government would be even a Putin ally.
2. As the European armies still have the potential to bring Russian forces down, will they be prepared for a war? Having some technologically superior systems in the numbers of a few dozen and make a big show to destroy the first few hundred Russian tanks wont be enough if you are then out of ammo.
3. Will at least the European NATO members fight this war together with their joint forces?

If you could answer one of these questions with a clear "YES", an invasion will either not take place in the first place as Russia sees the hopelessness or lead to a devastating defeat of the Russians. However all three of them are unclear to me now. As said above, there is also the chance that Russia collapses in a permanent war economy, but we dont have that under control, it could happen tommorrow, we could be still waiting for that in 20 years.

As for the change of war due to the effects of drones, there is this lucky coincidence that the German chancellor wanted to make an alibi support of the Ukraine (I think the chancellor is pro-Russian, just forced to make concessions due to pressure from all sides, his coalition partners, the press, voters, foreign countries) and gave them the Gepard tank (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard) a system that was supposed to be completely outdated and of no use at all, but the irony, it proved to be a valuable asset in the new drone war. Outdated and outmatched in 1990, in 2020 a real asset again suddenly.

However, what I was about to say, Russia will learn from its mistakes. In the Ukraine there is an evolution of war on both sides and I would not take it for granted, that the Russians will show such an embarrassing performance like they did at the start of the war.

 

1. Russia is limited in the production of tanks as they can only rely on their older models without a lot of electronic devices in it as that is one of the shortages they have due to sanctions and their war economy. They cannot produce their most modern tanks. Its very possible that most of the new produced tanks are T-72.
2. They use EVERYTHING they have and if there are T-34 left overs which could be overhauled, I would not wonder if we see them.

 

By the way, that is the analysis of a German think tank about the situation. Worth mentioning that its by far more optimistic than the analysis of a similar Polish think tank which came out around the same time.

https://dgap.org/system/files/article_pdfs/34-DGAP-Policy-Brief-2023.pdf

 

Looks like your German 'think tank' is doing an advertisement for whoever paid them off from the MIC.

 

I doubt you read any of it and are in any way qualified to make such a comment. By the way you arent even following the discussion. You post your propaganda of invincible Russia, you get contradiction that Russia is a joke and react now to an analysis I wanna use to prove my point that the Russian attack is no joke at all and there is a significant danger. You attack that now in favour of the position that Russia is only a joke, which is in complete contradiction to your main line in this forum.

Doesnt make any sense.

 

I think you should review who started this thread before talking about who is and isn't following the discussion.

I read enough of it. IIRC it said Russia needs 6+ years to reconstitute their military. They've already done it. End of story.

I've seen this crap my entire life. Russia is the boogie man....they will conquer us if we don't spend trillions....that enrich politicians and the MIC.

The topic is the looming ukraine debacle. It really isn't looming, it's already a debacle .

All this nonsense about Russia can't do this or that, but apparently they've managed to deplete NATO's stockpiles.

Let's just sit back and see how this story ends and it's not going to end how the west advertised.

Just like the story about how western sanctions would destroy Russia.

 

New funding means that Russia can get back to embarrassing itself some more. LOL!

 

No, I dont have to, because I already did. Your OP is the typical megalomaniac blabla of Russian troll propaganda. There on the other hand are several people who stated here, that Russia cannot even produce weapons anymore, the whole attack is a joke and things will be over soon. I contradicted there, because there is imo a real danger and gave among other numbers this analysis which states there is a real danger taking into account the Russian potential and now you say that this analysis is **** because it was obviously bought by the MIC so implying that it was all wrong, the people who think Russia cannot do any damage whatsoever are right, which - as you dont see it obviously - in contradiction to your OP.

My patience to deal with stupidity in combination with people who enjoy watching the show while hundred thousands of young men are loosing their lives is limited and I will ignore your posts from now on, they dont contain anything worth reading, you cant learn anything by that, its just primitive hatred. And its now on ignore.

 

Yes, please do ignore my contributions.

While I laugh at idiotic posts stating Russia cannot even produce weapons.....while they outproduce the entire West.

 

Yeah, 500 thousand dead ukrops at a time.

 

LOL! Troll farms.

 

Is that why RuZzfàscista grovels to Iran and NK...."Bill"?

 

House voted 312-111 for continued support "Bill"....not good.

Sounds like lotsa dead orcs soon?

 

Ukrop (Russian: укроп, pronounced [ʊˈkrop]; literally "dill") is a Russian-language ethnic slur for Ukrainians. The term is a reference to the dill plant and bears a superficial syntactical similarity with the first half of the Russian word for Ukrainians.[1][2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrop​

You just can't seem to help dehumanizing and denigrating the Ukrainian people, can you, "Bill"?

 

Well D, after the 10,000 times you used 'Orc' to describe Russians, I figured I could make an exception to stoop almost as low as you.

Would you prefer 'dill nazis' instead?

 

I think I know why they’re called “orcs” , but elaborate please.

 

"Orcs " has a better ring to it....don't ya think..."Bill"?

 

I love the repo act, finance the Ukraine with Russian money.

LOL

 

I don't describe Russians as Orcs, "Bill." I describe city-bombing, genocide-committing, land-stealing fascist invaders as such.

Now stop being racist.

 

‘Thank You America!’: Ukraine’s Zelensky and Israel’s Netanyahu hail House passage of $95 billion foreign aid package
By Maria Kostenko, Andrew Carey, Frederik Pleitgen, Tamar Michaelis, Samantha Waldenberg and Daria Tarasova-Markina, CNN

Kyiv CNN —
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu have thanked US lawmakers after they voted in favor of new aid packages for their countries worth billions of dollars.

“Thank you, America!” Zelensky wrote on his Telegram on Saturday, shortly after the House of Representatives passed the long-delayed Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act by a vote of 311-112.

The bill was part of a wider $95 billion package providing foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region. It provides nearly $61 billion to help Ukraine and others in the region fight Russia, while the House also passed funding worth $26.4 billion for Israel and $8.1 billion to counter China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific.

Zelensky said the decision would keep “history on the right track.”

... https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/20/world/foreign-aid-bill-ukraine-israel-thank-you-intl-latam​

Нема за що

 

It only took what 5-6 months?....Now to get it expedited quickly.....and the assets into the UAF.

All quiet on the tee-roll front.....I'm sure they'll come up with some kinda virile about "NAZIS", Banderites, Azov, etc.

 

What in the article do you object to?

 

Now the EU needs to unf@ck itself. The EU promised 1 million shells by the end of 2023 yet only delivered 30,000. Rather than fix that problem the EU doubled down on all shells having to be built in the EU and deliveries taking until 2028 to actually finish. Which is no help at all.

Yes, the Czechs came up with their own far better solution of buying shells on the international market and delivering ASAP which individual European states signed up to do and that is a good thing. They had to bypass the EU bureaucracy to do it though and, remember, Von der leyen had a spaz out over that demanding the Czech program get cancelled and all funds be given to the useless EU to waste instead. Screw the EU as it is part of the problem.