this fall is not a guaranteed Dem victory in the chambers of Congress

The generic ballot polls indicate that Dems may do very well in November in the congressional elections. However, (1) it is not a done deal, (2) November is a long way off, and (3) events will intervene. What do you think will happen?

 

The dems have a good chance to take the House, but I think the GOP will have 51 or 52 Senate seats at the end of the day.

If I am right and if Trump is still President, I am very curious to see the type of horse trading in legislation that will occur for the next term.

 

The current generic poll at RCP:

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Democrats (D) Republicans (R) Spread
RCP Average 4/6 - 4/11 -- 45.5 39.3 Democrats +6.2
ABC News/Wash Post 4/8 - 4/11 RV 47 43 Democrats +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/8 - 4/11 900 A 47 40 Democrats +7
Economist/YouGov 4/8 - 4/10 1292 RV 44 36 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 4/8 - 4/9 1000 LV 45 40 Democrats +5
Quinnipiac 4/6 - 4/9 1181 RV 46 43 Democrats +3
Reuters/Ipsos 4/6 - 4/10 1219 RV 44 34 Democrats +10

 

Portents:

https://www.npr.org/2018/04/16/601525832/democrats-have-the-wind-at-their-backs-but-can-they-capitalize?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news

Democrats have advantages —

An unpopular president

Democrats have advantages in their quest to take back the House. First and foremost, the president's low approval ratings. It's been a chaotic start to the Trump presidency, and yet his approval ratings have remained steady, steadily low.
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History

Add that to the fact that history is not kind to a president's party in midterms, and it creates problems for GOP candidates.

For context of just how bad history is to the president's party in midterms, just three times in the last 84 years — 1934 (aftermath of the Great Depression), 1998 (backlash over their impeachment of President Clinton) and 2002 ( right after 9/11) — has the president's party gained seats in the House.
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Enthusiasm

Republicans are also suffering from an enthusiasm gap.

Look particularly at liberals versus conservatives. There's a 25-point gap between the two, with 83 percent of liberals looking forward to these midterms, as opposed to 58 percent of conservatives.
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Women

Driving much of that enthusiasm for Democrats are women.

A record number of women have signed up to be candidates. And the highest percentage of women in at least two decades are identifying as Democrats.
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Congressional ballot

Democrats are consistently leading on the survey question of who Americans would prefer to have in charge of Congress, known to pollsters as the congressional ballot test.
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Retirements

There are a record number of Republican retirements from the House this year — 39 are calling it quits from their congressional jobs.

It's undoubtedly a bad sign for Republicans — and open seats are easier to win than defeating incumbents
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The economy

The economy continues to chug along. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades, and while GDP growth is slow, it continues to be positive.

Republicans are the ones now feeling good about the economy, flipping from when Obama was in office. Democrats, on the other hand, have also reversed themselves from the Obama years and now see it negatively.

Republicans' positive views of the economy might be pacifying for them. And anger — and being against someone or something — tend to be greater motivating factors in midterms (because it fires up activists).

That continues to be on Democrats' side.
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Foreign policy

Trump continues to get negative marks overall and Americans are worried about the threat posed by North Korea.
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Demography

Longer-term demographic trends continue to favor Democrats, as Pew's slides show.
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Factors mitigating GOP losses

Gerrymandered seats means that Republicans can still win more seats with fewer votes as they have done.

The elderly vote in midterms in greater percentages than do young Americans.

The economic growth throughout the Obama years continues.

(The trend of adding 11.3 million jobs during Obama's presidency, a record 75 straight months of job growth following the Bush economic collapse, has not yet been reversed under Trump. (Wages did go up for the first three quarters of Trump’s presidency, but they fell in the fourth, wiping out all the gains on his watch and then some. Wages began their climb during the final years of Obama’s presidency.)

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jan/30/donald-trump/us-finally-seeing-rising-wages-donald-trump-said/​

​

 

The Democrats should take absolutely nothing for granted, and they need to have a coherent and consistent message that makes sense. They need to address the concerns of those voters who went the other way in 2016, particularly those in the states that cost them dearly. While a Republican buffoon in the White House would seem to be an advantage for the Dems, I wouldn't base my platform on it or take it for granted.........

 

The Democrats need to ramp up their attacks against as many Americans and the United States as possible. By doing so, they can force voters to vote Democratic to get the Democrat Party to stop the attacks against them. Everyone understands the best way to get a person's vote is by incessantly calling the voter every obscene, foul and accusatory name you can think of - even saying how much they want the voter to die. That is the Democratic Party's strategy and they need to get far more intense and hateful at the voters. The campaign slogan of the Democratic Party in 2018 should be "Death To America."

 

that formula certainly has worked for the Republicans

that's always been the unstated plan of the GOP - sadly too many people fail to see it and continue to vote for that party

 

Democrats may win at the polls but this means nothing if the voting districts are gerrymandered as they are under the Republicans.

 

Good dem victories in 2018 and 2020 will begin unraveling the GOP suppression of the vote through gerrymandering etc.

 

Well that's a very nice rant Jake but I'm pretty sure the Democrats won't take your "advice"......LOL

 

You are suffering a fit of dementia again, AOG, but that's OK. It's OK.

 

I see you're already making excuses ala Hilary Clinton style.

 

may not be politically correct to say but it's just the facts, or in other words, the TRUTH

 

1a) Nothing is a "done deal"
1b) ^2016 proved that
2) Anything is still possible. (Literally, anything).
3) The only "poll" that counts is the one on Election Night (after the votes are counted).

 

6 points dem generic ballot advantage is not nearly good enough given dems' extremely high concentration in urban areas. winning districts in NYC or LA by 80% won't help....

On the positive side, the leftist pro open borders, globalist, pro outsourcing agenda mixed with a heavy concentration of Trump hate, race/gender baiting, Russia hysteria and impeachment threats will undoubtedly win the day

 

Trump has fairly earned all of the opposition to him.

The Dems will tie every GOP candidate to him this fall, and things better change for the Trumper (what a bad week for him!). or it will be a blue slush with a few streak of red on election day.

 

I think the GOP will hold both houses but have their margins narrowed in the House. Zero sum gain in the Senate.

I'd be giddy as a school girl if the DNC took one or both houses but I don't see it happening.

 

Yes, it is still early in the game to be making marginal calls but the most important factors all center around the House.

39 resignations and counting, PA gerrymandering reversed and the Dems only need 24 seats to flip it. Given the 14% average margin favoring the Dems in every special election since 2016 those 24 seats are essentially up for grabs and the Dems have the enthusiasm to go after them.

The second factor is the historical trend but that is bolstered by the pattern that we saw in 2006/2008 elections where the GOP had full control and overreached badly thus handing the Dems the win. The GOP is repeating the same mistake IMO so that also moves the needle towards the House flipping.

One outside factor that is worth noting since it doesn't get much mention is the response to "feeling the Bern".The "revolution" that Sanders talked about has inspired a great many to become involved in politics. We saw them almost flip the VA legislature by wiping out a GOP 32 seat majority in 2017. This is the motivation factor that the Dems have and the Repubs lack going into 2018.

Another outside factor is the Parkland #NeverAgain movement. This one is targeted directly at GOP legislators. It means that defending those seats is going to take time, effort and money that is not going to be available to contest Dem seats in the House. What makes this one significant is in who it is motivating to go out and vote. Yes, the GOP can use the "threat to their guns" but that is already factored into their "likely voters". What #NeverAgain does is counter that with a motivation for the least likely demographic to cast their ballots.

Nothing is ever a given in politics but ignoring trends is foolish IMO. The Dems learned that hard lesson by ignoring the trend towards racial resentment amongst white less educated voters. What is even worse is that it was not even on their radar. It blindsided them in 3 key states and a mere 77,000 votes altered the outcome.

So while we all know the most common factors to watch out for keeping an eye on trends is always a good idea IMO.

 

I think the GOP will lose seats but will retain both. The next election should be in doubt though.

 

@JakeStarkey just wanted to bring another trend worth watching to your attention.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/teacher-strikes-are-spreading-across-america

In a news segment that I watched there was a teacher in a red state who called himself a Republican who is supporting teachers striking. The comment quoted above is indicative IMO of a feeling that teachers across the nation are no longer willing to put up with being underpaid and undervalued.

This started in Red States and is flaring across Red States where GOP legislators have been enacting taxcuts at the expense of teachers. The danger to the GOP posed by this trend is that it could mean that "safe" GOP Congressional seats can no longer be counted upon and need defending. It also puts pressure on local legislative seats in red states.

If this trend was isolated to being the ONLY issue in 2018 it would not be significant. However it is probably spreading on a grassroots level nationwide and it adds to the momentum of the Bernie revolution and the Parkland #NeverAgain movements.

Nothing is guaranteed in politics but when the electorate are aggrieved they tend to get off their asses and go out and vote and that never bodes well for incumbents. Just look at 2010.

 

Democrats have a message:
when tax cuts increase peoples paychecks its bad;
its bad when companies pay employees more and give bonuses;
people who defeat a dem in an election won through dishonesty and must be removed by any means;
violence against conservatives and Republicans is good;
free speech must be eliminated;
surveillance of all Americans is good;
white people are bad;
blue collar people are stupid;
illegal aliens are good and should be above the law even when they murder people;
teenagers should set public policy (unless the teens are conservative);
and most importantly to Democrats war is very very good.

Sounds like a winning strategy, doesn't it?

 

The answer depends wholly on whose "October Surprise" is more compelling and entertaining.

 

Salt Lake school teachers are supposedly walking out today.

That won't happen; they are the most apolitical teacher group I have ever witnessed.

 

I don't see what the teachers are doing being motivated by politics. This is a bipartisan issue regarding being paid fairly for the important work that they do educating our children.

What is motivating the teachers is "fiscal resentment". They would be marching for this cause regardless as to which party is in power or responsible for their being underpaid.

 

Oh, I get what you are saying, Derideo_Te. The SLC school teachers will not see it that way.