Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential

I'm sure Hillary will by full of meds at debate time, so if she can come out of it without collapsing, having a seizure, or being helped off the stage; then I'm sure most will claim it to be a victory for Hillary. She is after all, nothing more than a plastic puppet of the far left donor class and the liberal left.

 

Yeah....don't look at the polls....unless its the LA times because that is biased for Trump. LOL

 

In some ways, I think most polls over analyze their results, and in so doing, they interject their own biases, or if not their biases, their own ill-conceived assumptions. The electorate is also very moody, so a lot hinges on the last week in the campaign, who seems to have the mo, and who doesn't.

 

The losing side NEVER believes in polls

 

Those who speak in absolute terms are NEVER correct, unless they get LUCKY. Do you feel lucky this time around?

 

I believe in the clear trend in the polls. No luck needed

 

How do you know it's biased? Do you think the polls that favor Hillary are also biased?

 

I would if i relied on one poll. I rely on many polls and take the average of all polls. LA times is a consistent outlier against all the others.

 

You go off on irrelevant tangents. Point out where I am wrong.

 

There are no clear trends, just clear past trends.

 

Uh....that is what a trend is. Would you like a future trend? LOL

 

This month, CNN/ORC, Reuters/IPSOS, Fox News, Rasmussen, and the LA Times have all shown Trump tied or with a small lead nationally. Are all five of these polls outliers, and only the ones that favor Hillary the accurate ones?

Have you ever considered the possibility that your "Clinton +7" polls are the ones that might be the outliers?

 

Did you say this month?? Really? In the last ten most recent polls Trump is winning two of them.

 

don't confuse fund raising polls for temperature polls. Manufactured imaginary momentum is not momentum it is an attempt to herd opinion. I do believe the final tally will be within 2 points, unless a buttload of undecideds break one way or the other over some major trigger

 

One shows Trump tied, and two others show him down only 1% to 2%. And the five polls that show Hillary leading by 5% to 7%, do you think they might be outliers?

 

You left out three other polls that show Clinton ahead. So is the trend that she is likely ahead, Trump is likely ahead or tied? Be honest

 

Where did I leave anything out? Five polls show Trump being anywhere from 2% down to 2% ahead. Five polls show Clinton with a 5% to 7% lead. Which group of five do you think are the most likely outliers?

I also see where RCP chooses not to include the weekly Rasmussen poll, which yesterday showed Trump with a 5% national lead; Trump 44%, Hillary 39%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ections/election_2016/white_house_watch_sep22

 

Wrong. Trump is only up in two of the last ten polls with one tie. That puts Clinton ahead in 7 of the last ten polls. Where do you get your information?

McClatchy/Marist 9/15 - 9/20 758 LV 3.6 48 41 Clinton +7
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/15 - 9/21 2623 LV 4.5 43 45 Trump +2
Economist/YouGov 9/18 - 9/19 936 RV 4.0 45 44 Clinton +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/16 - 9/19 922 LV 3.2 48 41 Clinton +7
Reuters/Ipsos 9/15 - 9/19 1111 LV 3.4 39 39 Tie
Associated Press-GfK 9/15 - 9/16 1251 LV -- 50 44 Clinton +6
NBC News/SM 9/12 - 9/18 13320 LV 1.2 50 45 Clinton +5
FOX News 9/11 - 9/14 867 LV 3.0 45 46 Trump +1
CBS News/NY Times 9/9 - 9/13 1433 LV 3.0 46 44 Clinton +2
Quinnipiac 9/8 - 9/13 960 LV 3.2 48 43 Clinton +5

 

Where do you get your reading skills? Read my post a few more times, maybe it will start to sink in for you. Take your time, you will make fewer mistakes that way.

 

If you can not see the trend and see who is currently the clear leader then that is on you.

 

An average of muddy waters doesn't make clear water, just a muddy average. Clarity comes from distinguishing the clear from the muddy.

 

Here is some clarity. Hillary is winning in 70% of the ten most recent polls. LOL

 

you wonder why there is such discrepancy with the polls It doesn't take a genius to figure out

Look at the party affiliation break down of those polls

Gallop has the party affiliation break down of the country as of last month 27% republican 38% independent and 31% democrat. that is only plus 4 democrat

now lets look at one of the polls that has Clinton at plus 7% like the last NBC poll. their party affiliation break down was 45% democrat 37% republican that is plus 8% democrat
with far to many republicans and democrat and not enough independents which independents are by in large are swinging towards Trump

If NBC samples where more in line with what Gallop says the party affiliation break down of the country was that would erase those 7 points

 

Claims without evidence

 

Actually no, the entire state of Kansas is a craphole. The GDP of Chicago alone is 5 times that of the entire state of Kansas. Not only is Kansas broke and a joke run by republicans without a clue, it contributes very little. Seems like a perfect right wing paradise.