US coming into a Recession

In other words you can't cite anything they can do to weaken the economy. But you think they can talk it down.

Ever hear the phrase, "the market is climbing a wall of worry?" There are always naysayers. Always people who express concern. Thinking they can effect the economy in a real way is just naive.

 

Even gun sales have seen a kickup over the past few weeks.

The Democrats get most of the credit for that.

 

You should ask an economics psychologist about it. Also, I, personally, think it depends on who the messenger is. If the US economy is 2/3s consumerism, the mood of the consumers clearly has an impact on the economy. And of course this is why we actually care about measuring consumer confidence.

 

I think we can show it. Start at the day Chuck Schumer publicly invites a run at IndyMac, and go from there. Again, this isn't magic. It's purposeful. and these folks are playing the downturns when everyone else cannot.

 

That's good to know. So we don't actually have to implement policies to stimulate economy. All we have to do is talk positively about the economy and poof....great economy.

 

Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/us-...level-since-2007-amid-risk-off-sentiment.html

I have been waiting for this to happen for some few months, and we were prepared.

The coming recession is, in part, Trump caused because of the increasing debt of the tax cut.

The upper 50% will be OK, and the lower 50% once again as a decade ago suffer greatly because of Republican greed.

 

Interesting rabbit hole you ran towards. Telling for sure.

 

You're the one who started us down that hole. Telling for sure

 

The market’s most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted today, and if its record over the last half-century is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon.

Shortly after 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.

For over a year after that, the yield curve fluttered in and out of inversion. The last inversion, as measured by U.S. Treasury data collected by the St. Louis Fed, was in 2007.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007-102034083.html

 

It's always amusing to watch Democrats cheer bad news when a Rep President is is office. Republicans to the same when there is a Dem President.

Anything for political point, that is the authoritarian motto!

 

I would hazard a guess that while some folks might be heavily indebted, at this point, the vast majority are not. So why assert such a limited data set from which to gauge the whole? Given what large banks are doing right now, I doubt they would agree with you either..

 

and dumb during the Reagan era.

 

So? What's your point? Again, EVERYONE, has been planning for a business cycle for 2019 with growth plateau and probably flat in 2020. Do you really think cheerleading for something more destructive is wise?

 

And we have been near inversion for almost a year now ... just now it is official.

 

Is there anyone in this thread who is "cheering" bad news?

 

Yes.

 

The 3 month has been inverted with respect to the 2 and 10 year for months now. This is a warning of a storm coming. That storm has now come and the market are reflecting this. “The U.S. equity market (^GSPC) is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Stephen Suttmeier wrote on Tuesday.

While how and when these things play out is a bit of a guessing game - if we get a downturn prior to the election the Red side will be in trouble.

 

I'm becoming uncomfortable watching you equivocate, squirm away from your original contention, and otherwise try to mealy mouth your way out of what you said. But do carry on if you feel you must.

 

Just cause you can't, doesn't mean that the rest of us cannot. $3T in debt is roughly 15% of overall GDP. And most of that is mortgages. Want to take another swig and get back to us?

 

But hey don't worry your middle class tax cuts will expire this year also..

 

And how is that then inconsistent? A recession is, in fact, a decline in total output, not a plateau, or running flat... is it? Or do you just get to make up definitions as you go?