VFW seeks Trump apology for downplaying injuries from Iranian missile strike

Casualty figures? Hey, the camel that was killed in the air strike was not American. There were no casualties.

 

Any reports about US casualties which isn't based on US sources is, to me, preemptively suspect and unreliable, simply because the best source (the ones who would really know) would be US sources. And while US sources aren't ipso facto reliable either, when it comes to serious (life threatening) casualties, there are significant constraints on their ability to hide the truth for too long. Their best devise in hiding or postponing telling the truth is to be evasive in their responses, a refusal to give sufficient detail, and say some issue is still "under investigation".

On specific factual issues of this kind, I have my own 'methodology' to inform my view of the 'likely facts'. Based on that methodology (which involves looking at all the reports and the biases involved and other things), my guess-estimate on the issue of US casualties from Iran's attacks against the US bases in Iraq, are as follows:

1- Two (2) US servicemen may have died from the attacks, probably due to severe brain injury. These would the servicemen mentioned in this report. My guess is that they were transported to Germany, were being treated for TBI, but ended up dying on January 12th (found dead in their room, with the cause of death still "under investigation"). The initial Pentagon reaction, faced with Trump's "no Americans were harmed" mantra, was to cover up the issue and not admit that these airmen were actually assigned to the Al Asad air base in Iraq. But after these deaths, the Pentagon began taking even milder TBI complaints more seriously, transferring more servicemen with such complaints to Germany for treatment.

2- Of the 11 servicemen first (but belatedly) reported by the Pentagon as having suffered injury from Iran's attacks (in a statement that was very vague about the nature of those injuries, except a passing comment about concussions which didn't clarify whether it related to all of them or not), the ones sent to Germany were transferred for TBI related complaints. But the ones sent to Kuwait had sustained mostly shrapnel wounds and burns and weren't being treated for TBI. Their injuries were probably not serious, although local Kuwait sources say some of them were kept in the ICU wing of a Kuwaiti facility, and it seems all but one of them has returned to duty in Iraq.

3- A host of US servicemen were treated in Iraq for various mild injuries at a facility near Baghdad. Those injuries ranged from being under shock, with mild cuts and bruises, to very mild forms of TBI. They have returned to duty.

4- An undetermined number (latest Pentagon statement puts the number at 50) US servicemen have been diagnosed with TBI, and according to the latest Pentagon statement, 18 servicemen are still undergoing treatment outside of Iraq. (The latest statement mentions they are being treated in Germany, while an earlier statement had put the number being treated outside of Iraq at 17, 8 of them sent to the US for treatment and 9 who were in Germany for treatment).

5- There has not been any really detailed accounts from the Pentagon regarding the severity of the TBI injuries, but some suggestions that most are mild TBI injuries.