I believe that within two years we will have some sort of armed conflict at least with Iran, and that within 8 years we will be at war with China. If tensions keep growing with China, and we sit back and watch their military continue to expand, I think a sort of "cold war" with China could start up within 5 years. Thoughts on this?
The US should put an end to this now, by blowing up their aircraft carrier before it is commissioned. It could be done in the same way as all those mysterious explosions at nuclear facilities in Iran.
The only way we will be at war with Iran is if they attack one of their neighbors. For the last 30+ years, our general policy of ignoring them has been pretty effective. However, I would also not put it past them to attack one of their neighbors, and we end up getting sucked into the conflict via alliances. But as long as they mind their own business, I don't see that happening. And what tensions with China? That have actually been fairly low. The highest I can remember in recent years is when they forced down one of our spy planes, and that was around a decade ago.
Its more of the subtler stuff. Massive increases in military and weapons and naval forces. That disturbs me. also the sort of trade warfare, not to mention we KNOW they are hacking our computers and stealing technology. Plus, it is possible if Iran does do something that they could have some Chinese support. And eventually they are gonna say hey pay your debt to us, and since we owe them more money than like eve exists, we will probably have to decline. That usually doesn't go well. lol
Yes, US tension with China is in reality at an all time low relatively speaking, as long as China don't actually put money where their month is on the South China Sea issue it should be fine, and also helps that Taiwan's currently ran by regimes that's working hard to reduce tension with the mainland, so the odds of Taiwan forcing the PRC and US to war now is eons lower than in the past decades. As for Iran, I agree with your general point though once we put a 3rd party into the picture (aka Israel) I'm much less certain. at least it seems to me that Israel has a reasonable plausibility to act unilaterally, and once they do the US will most likely have to deal with the inevitable resulting mess.
They may be increasing their military equipment, but it is mostly 3rd rate junk. Looking at their Main Battle Tanks is a great example of this. Their newest tanks generally date to the 1960's, and many of them (M-47 Patton) even date to shortly after WWII. Thi smay be a threat to it's own citizens and their neighbors, but not to the United States. And if you look through their inventory, you see this over and over again. Either stuff bought all the way back when the Shah was in charge, or more recent copies of that equipment of 30 years ago (Saeghe 1/2 is a copy of the Dragon, Tosan is a copy of the FV101 Scorpion, Safir-74 is a copy of the T-55, Shahin is a copy of the HAWK, etc). In short, for taking on anybody other then a small neighbor, their military is horribly outdated and insufficient. They talk a big talk, but their military would have problems even fighting a small but updated military like that of Iraq today. When they fought Iraq last time, both sides had about the same equipment, so it was a decade long stalemate. Today, Iraq has some of the most modern equipment in the middile east. And no, they would not get "support" from China. Other then what China is willing to give anybody, money (or oil) in exchange for more military equipment. China will not send in troops (it can't even really get many there), nor will it send in modern equipment without money. And what debt? You are aware are you not that there is no "debt", right? What China bought was Treasury Bonds. The same as anybody else can do. And like a Savings Bond, they have a fixed maturity date. China could no more "demand payment" on these then you could go to your local bank and demand full face value for a 5 year old Savings Bond.
This is a very different thing. And any war between Iran and israel would be rather one sided I think. For one, neither country borders the other. Which means that they would have to work with another nation, or conduct an entirely air war. And no nation in the area will support Iran in this. Most of the neighbors of Israel have actually come to terms with her existance, and even see Israel as a stabilizing influence in the region. Plus they have lost to many wars against them over the years. Iran has never once fought Israel. So Iran will get no real help in attacking Israel. And they lack any capability to attack directly, unless they go through several other nations first. Israel has no need or desire to attack Iran, short of single strategic strikes. And they have some of the best equipment in the world. It is fine to look at the 1 million man plus size of the Iranian Army, then that of the smaller Israel and predict who would win. But then you have to ask yourself, "how will one side get to where it can attack the other?" Then you see how this will not happen.
I agree that war via the USA is inevitable. I am anti war as per my sig. However it's a natural cycle and the next one I believe will be fought for all the wrong reasons. We will risk a cold war with china at our own peril. It will be interesting to see what happens seeing that China holds so much of our debt. Remember the depression of the 1920's? Remember WW1&2 ? The war heated up our economy wildly,and created the American dream or made it possible. Then Korea and Nam, afterwards Nixon printed funny money to pay for it (IMO), remember he removed the last of the gold backing for dollars. Now we have Iraq one and two, and probably will have Iran to pay for. There must be some kind of connections here that go beyond the what Eisenhower warned us about (the Mil/industrial complex). I fear that we are being led by hooks to creating or participating of a major world war that begins in the middle east. Lastly a quick comment. I agree with trumps new book. If we are immoral enough to go into some questionable wars we should be immoral enough to demand restitution. As per trump in Libya for example the freedom fighters were begging us to bomb pro Gaddafi forces. We should of as per Trump asked for 50% of the oil. As trump said they would have agreed to giving up 75% of thier oil. The USA leaders enriched themselves by war with Iraq and others, while they should have been enriching the USAs bottom line! Its bad business and trump knows a thing or two about business. Rev A
I hope it will not happen. However, if Iran is caught again violating the nuke agreements war may be inevitable. Israel and the USA (and by proxy or international umbilical cord) rightly or wrongly will not allow Iran to possess an atomic bomb. Personally I would be highly against them having the bomb, for obvious and not so obvious reasons. Rev A
Not so sure about relations being at an all time high. They have repeatedly backed Iran and there have been statements made that sugguest they may be willing to support Iran in a conflict with the US. Guess we will see what happens when this all comes to fruition. I can see within the next 15 years, being in a major conflict involving Iran.
I agree, I do not think China would supply straight man power. They would be subtle enough that America couldn't prove anything directly.
China might well sell them more military equipment. But I question how much good that would do. Any war with Iran would likely follow the mold of Afghanistan or Iraq fairly closely. A quick strike in, destroying the infrastructure and military force of the government fairly quickly. If a war was to start withn the next 5 years, China would not be able to get involved even if she wanted to before the war was essentially over. And to see some examples of this, look at the Iran-Iraq war, then the 2 US-Iraq wars. Iran and Iraq had remarkable similar militaries. Mostly the same equipment, Iraq with slightly better equipment while Iran had more of it. Yet they both used the same tactics. And they fought each other for a decade, neither ever getting a strong dominance over the other. The war largely ended because of outside international pressure, plus the fact that neither side was gaining anything. Then compare this to the 1991 and 2003 US-Iraq wars. Both were over within days, the last with the total collapse of the Iraqi government. Iran would be a harder nut to crack, because it is a larger and more widely seperated nation. But I doubt it would meet the same fate if the US really had the desire to invade and take out the government. China could never move in enough supplies to make any kind of difference in time. The only way they could make any difference would be to get involved directly with combat troops and trying to stage a naval interdiction against the US fleet in the Persian Gulf. And I do not see that ever happening.
Your right it wouldn't hurt America at all. But I still feel like they would be ready to support Iran, if only for the sake of being spiteful towards America. I think China is currently our biggest "enemy" people just haven't really noticed them yet because they are a little smarter than Iran. They may not be openly attacking us or anyone else, but you cannot deny that they are up to something. I also believe China shouldn't be underestimated. They have survived thousands of years and become one of the oldest countries and regions for a good reason. They know hot to play the long-term game.
Do not confuse the People's Republic of China, with the history of China itself. China has come and gone, with a great many rises and collapses. First you had Imperial China, and the Qin state. That lasted for several hundred years, until the Han Dynsasty took over. This was one of the largest expansions of China ever, and lasted for about 400 years. Then you had the Three Kingdom period, which was a feudal state with three competing regions trying to control as much area as they could. Then there were many other dynasties, including the Tang, Song, and many more. This lasted until the 13th century, when the Mongol's conquered China and established the Yuan Dynasty. This was followed by a peasant revolt which overthrew the Mongold and created the Ming Dynasty. This was eventually overthrown by the Shun Dynasty, then shortly afterwards by the Manchu Quing Dynasty. This lasted for over 260 years, until it was overthrown by the Kuomintang National Socialist Party. Restored later by Japan, then overthrown again by the Nationalists after the end of WWII. Then the Nationalists themselves were replaced by the People's Republic. The borders of China have changed greatly over the centuries. And the current China has about as much to do as Italy does with the Roman Empire which occupies the same area. Because the China of today is still a fairly new nation, having only been established in 1949 when the Koumintang Government going into exile in Taiwan, and the establishment of the People's Republic of China.
The US is like the goose that laid the golden egg.. Do you think the Chinese want to mess with the the goose? I don't think so. They would also run the risk of the US defaulting on the debt.
What do you mean the risk? there is no way we will ever be able to afford to pay them back. Sooner or later, we will default or reach some sort of agreement.
They only hold a small portion of our total debt. U.S. citizens hold more U.S. debt than any foreign entity. Much of it is also in the form of long-term treasuries....its not like an outstanding balance.
Yes, I do know that. But the longer we don't return the money, the more money it is! Besides we can't even find a way to pay back 1 trillion, how are we supposed to return any money to China when they hold about 3 to 5 of it?
Its not 3 to 5....its a bit over 1. Also, its treasurey securities.....the debt is retired at maturity. There are millions and millions of treasuries, all with different maturity dates and yields.
This is what these people just don't seem to get. And look back, I thought I explained it pretty well. The money can't be paid back sooner. They are in fixed term bonds, generally 20-30 year bonds. They can't be paid back early, unless the person holding them wants to turn them in early at a penalty for "early withdrawl". And nobody can make them turn them in early. This is not rocket science, that is simply how bonds work. And I thought it was something that everybody over the age of 12 understood. If you take out a US Savings Bond, you pay 50% of the face value, understanding it will mature in 20 years. They will accrue interest for another 10 years after that date, but after that it stops. The Treasury Bonds held by individuals, institutions, and governments all over the world work the same way. They are purchased, with the understanding that in a set date in the future, they can be turned in. The US Government can't simply demand they be turned in. The individual can choose to turn them in, but that is rather foolish unless the money is needed really badly.
Actually, you CAN cash in a bond early, I have done it several times myself. I understand how a bond works.
You can sell your bond on a secondary market, or in the case of treasuries, turn it in for a BIG penalty. You can also be FORCED to turn in a bond if its callable. However, callable bonds require that the issuer pay a premium for that right. Right now, the U.S. government isn't issuing callable treasuries. If the U.S. suddenly had a 5 trillion dollar surplus they couldn't just pay off all their debt at once.
Of course that won't happen. But "when the time comes". You really think we are going to be able to give them anything? Doubtful. And you think they don't already know that?
