We are at the peak in world oil production...

Todays example of "Fun With Stupid People Who Know Nothing About the Oil and Gas Business" uses the following Jiggsy statement as its starting point.

Jiggsy here is doing his best to discredit the production brought on line during any particular decline period, such as that since his religions blessed event in 2005. When the chicken littles were not Raptured away, they stuck around to complain about the issue, and Jiggsy's screwup about reserves is one of those complaints.

So Jiggsy wishes to talk about "total proven reserves". Watch what happens when we do.

Here are those world oil reserves from way back, provided so that Jiggsy can find some other way to claim the information doesn't exist just because he doesn't have the intellectual wherewithall to understand his topic.

http://www.opec.org/library/annual statistical bulletin/interactive/2004/filez/XL/T33.HTM

Notice in 1980 or so there were 647 billion barrels of reserves. Now, how much oil has the planet used between 1980 and about now? Here is a quickie graphic in barrels per day for those who want to verify my approximation.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx

Add those numbers up after converting them to billions (don't worry Jiggsy, I know you don't have enough fingers and toes so I'll do it for you) and you get about 830 billion barrels. So....what happened? Well obviously, we used MORE than proven reserves because the proven reserves are actually the P90 of a given distribution (sorry Jiggsy, can't help you with statistics until you pass first grade math) which means that 90% of the time, the actual answer is expected to be higher. In this case quite a bit higher! Now, it is obvious that not only did we use ALL the proven reserves and then some, but it is just as obvious that there is a reserve number today with which we can ask the same question of. How much did we add to proven reserves while we were using up ALL our other oil? The amount of proven reserves in 2013 is listed as 1500 billion barrels.

http://world.bymap.org/OilReserves.html

WHAT!!! So let me get this straight...we started out with 647...used 830....giving us a negative number of -183, and the REAL amount we have left is 1500? Holy crap proven reserves batman! Ladies and Gentlemen, this means that not only did we fill the 183 billion barrels gap to just break even, but we added another 1500 billion on TOP of that? Which means...drum roll....we found 1683 billion barrels of proven reserves in 33 years, for a finding rate of 51 billion barrels per year. So while we are using 30 billion per year in proven reserves, we are finding MORE! Year after year after year for decades!

Quite amazing, and a bit difficult for the chicken littles to explain, but I'm sure the church has a stock answer for these FACTS.

And lest we forget, as with all proven reserve estimates, there is a 90% chance the numbers are HIGHER. Another little factoid that those who use these definitions for a living are familiar with, but the chicken littles? Well, they are busy shucking and jiving trying to explain why the worldwide decline in oil production keeps going UP since their last sky is falling proclamation.

SPE reserve definitions:

http://www.spe.org/industry/reserves.php


World oil production...going up...again....looks like it is past 90 mbd now.



- - - Updated - - -

 

Priests in your religion, declaring various running outs and peaks going back a century, don't count. Hell, priests in your religion have already declared peak oil has happened (multiple times) and here YOU still are trying to convince people to notice!

Price certainly does matter. Please reference in Hubbert's paper (1956) upon which your sky is falling scenario is based, where he said what the price would be, that we would all know peak had arrived. And for the record, the real price of oil has quite often been high, even above $100/bbl. What moron besides YOU ever uses nominal price as a measure when talking about the history of a commodity? That is like saying we have achieved peak car because a new one costs so much more than a Model T!

 

Long chain hydrocarbons aren't going to arrange themselves to your ignorance Jiggsy. Thank you trying so hard to change the subject.

Heavy oils have higher energy density Jiggsy, try again. EROEI is a joke, and sooner or later in my "Jiggsy as an example of idiocy" class we'll get to your 3 for 2 example. Such a math screwup should be immortalized.

It has done that too Jiggsy. Up past 75 mbd last I looked. May I recommend you do some basic fact checking because things have changed in the year you've been hiding?

Keep shucking and jiving Jiggsy, my "Jiggsy as example of ignorance" show is just warming up. You really should have learned something about this topic before laying down such a huge body of work demonstrating it.

Me distorting it? Go find his concept on using price Jiggsy. Here, I'll provide the paper which started it all. Let us know how it goes.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-03-08/nuclear-energy-and-fossil-fuels

Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US would peak before 1950. Is that the "correct" you are talking about? Or does your ignorance extend even into the basics of your religions original prophet?

 

I do still think that the amount of crude oil left in the earth is still plentiful.
What I should of said is that alot of it is in very remote locations. I mentioned Russia because it has large reserves to the far north of Siberia which to my knowledge are undeveloped.

Well this was a few years ago and I honestly don't remember how much but from what I remember of the conversation it was enough for a very large investment. Tbh I don't really remember that much about it and basically as PA all I did was make sure his bills were paid and picked him up from whichever pub he was in or in the last case stripclub.

But yes the North sea has been in decline. And the demand increase over this last decade didn't really help.

Well I'll do some more digging and maybe ask my ex boss about it.
And thanks. I think civility in any debate is essential and you know it's an awfully grown up thing to do.

 

So, what else do you we have in the trial and tribulations of Peak Oil Church Jiggsmeister?

Here is an interesting conclusion from The Ignorant One.

June 24, 2010

"In conclusion: demand is already outstripping supply, has since 2005, and nothing -- NOTHING -- is remotely ready to make up for that shortfall. The IEA expects a 10 million barrel per day shortfall by 2015, which be disastrous on a Biblical scale. Prices will spike, the global economy will crash (starting to already), and resource war will become likely."

So demand has been outstripping supply for 3 years now. And in 2 more years Jiggsy claims that IEA expects a 10 mbd shortfall! Of course, that isn't what IEA says at all because they publish these cute graphs showing what they do expect, and going and rounding one up shows you why Jiggsy can't even be expected to characterize a known publication. Here are a bunch of their projections, can anyone else see ANY decrease in here, anywhere? Up, up and away, everyone of them.



And 3 years later, and not only can't we find that claimed 5 mbd drop, but they keep producing MORE oil!

Just for the fun of it, I rounded up two of the Priests of Peak, to see how their estimates did. See where those lines intersect in 2013, maybe 23 billion/year? That folks, is about 63 million day, currently the world is increasing crude only above 75/day, and liquid fuels are up to 90+. When todays numbers are higher than the old ones, the obvious extension is whatever the OLD peak was, isn't the peak anymore. Better luck next peak Jiggsy. Find some new prophets to adjust their charts ever upward, because your old ones, boy, they are old. And wrong.

 

Todays lesson in Oil-ignorance is based on a core problem within the THE END IS NIGH!! OH NOES!! community, and here is the operative example from Mr "I don't no nutting bout oils" Jiggsy.

June 24, 2010-Our Oilignorant Jiggly

As "Industrial Man," we're largely (*)(*)(*)(*)ed. That's the whole point. There is no substitute for the versatility that oil provides -- rubber, plastics, pesticides, fertilizers, computer chips, medicines, refrigeration, etc. ...

Here is the clue of how poorly The Church of Peak thinks about this issue, and why you never find resource economists in their midst.

Can anyone tell me how you drill for plastics? Pharmaceuticals? Rubber? Fertilizers? I've drilled wells in two countries, onshore and off, and I've never struck rubber! How can this BE?! The obvious answer (to the non oil-ignorant anyway) is that we DON'T drill for those things, because those things are derived from a process which incorporates oil, it is but a chemical feedstock in the process.

So let me demonstrate the next intellectual sidestep that the oil-ignorant in the Church of Peak commit to...they pretend that THIS long chain hydrocarbon is different than THAT one. The chemical composition of these two things can be identical, but that one was produced onshore (and is therefore "conventional") and that one was found under some water (and is therefore "unconventional"). To the refinery BOTH of these products go to, it is a difference without a distinction. The refinery will take in both, and spew out the same derivative product, gasoline, diesel, asphalt.

This difference without a distinction is used, nay, NEEDED by the Church of Doom to avoid an obvious, ongoing, and ever increasing effect in the chain of events of how consumers get their derivative products. You see, that refinery which doesn't know the difference between two types of chemicl feedstock that The Church of Peal is making such a fuss about? It also doesn't know the difference between those and when humans MANUFACTURE the same feedstock. I can BUILD an oil molecule, and feed it into the refinery same as I do oil, looks like oil, has the chemical composition of oil, the only difference being...I made this chemical feedstock, I didn't drill for it. The examples would include tar sands, GTLs, CTLs, natural gas liquids like lease condensate, all SORTS of things which can be made into a refineries input.

And here is why Jiggsy isn't an economist, and you can't find one being an oilignoramous. The instant you understand the chemical engineering necessary to make refinery feedstock, you can calculate how much it will cost, and you can balance that cost against a demand, and ladies and gentlemen, you now don't give a rats ass about conventional oil, shale oil, tight oil, loose oil, Titan oil, methane from dairy farms or irrigated rice or landfills, extra heavy or extra light, brown oil, green oil, reddish oil, because.... IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER ANY MORE.

This is why you see all the nitpicking and differences without distinctions being declared by The Church of Peak, without an economist to give them the straight dope, to explain how this works, all they can see if green oil, of a certain density, only drilled when it sits under friendly government property, is the only kind which matters. And we have less of it! OH NOES! THE END IS NIGH!!

This is how the entire exercise is run, and why the exercise is run. Jiggsy just falls for this nonsense because he is oil ignorant. I'm sure as a parrot for the Church he serves some function, it just has nothing to do with thinking about this topic, or understanding it, his job is just to parrot from their Bible, and shout as loud as he can in the hopes that he doesn't run into a resource economist, or petroleum engineer scientist who knows more than a few resource economists.

 

you mean I wasted my money on that "drill for plastics in your own backyard" kit ...damnnn

 

You did. But you want to know how you REALLY get ripped off? When you go to the gas station, and you buy gas? They don't even TELL you which kind of gasoline you are getting? The yicky unconventional OMG nobody wants to use it kind, or the righteous kind, made from mamma's finest ingredients at the local refinery, gently coaxed into regular, midgrade and premium that your car might sigh in pleasure when it is dispensed into the tank. You pay the SAME price for BOTH!!

How dare they! You would gladly pay more for momma's brand of gasoline built from GOOD oil versus that other stinky stuff built from BAD oil!

It is all quite hysterical, I asked Jiggsy this once before and he fled an entire website because he can't answer. He chokes out some incoherent thing about energy, and how only SPECIAL oil counts, and then when you ask him about how he makes sure to buy only that special kind of oil at the gas station.....WHOOSH....gone. A delicate lad, even if he is as dumb as a stump.

 

If you and others are planning their future, or betting their future, based on 'when oil will run out', then I suggest you are missing a much more formidable issue; the cost of oil and gasoline to the average consumer and how it will impact the economy.

The US, along with most other developed nations, and it's citizens, are essentially broke, deep in debt, and fighting one financial crisis after another. The US government refuses to ask US taxpayers for more taxation to help stop deficit spending because every new penny of taxes slows the American economy...this is how fragile the US economy is today. Now...what happens when the average price of gasoline hits $4-$4.50/gallon...the economy immediately slows and everyone whines. Take this scenario to $5/gallon gasoline, not only can tens of millions of Americans not afford gasoline, the costs of everything will increase...inflation...and the US economy comes to a grinding halt. $5/gallon gas will probably put the US in a deep recession or depression and it will be horrific to imagine $6/--$7/gallon fuel and the US economy.

The scenario I suggest above can actually happen tomorrow and certainly in the near future. IMO Americans and the US economy, regarding oil, are teetering on the brink of potential disaster yet the most we can do is argue about how much oil each of us believes lies in the crust of Earth just waiting to be produced...when none of us know the answer! But we do know what happens as the price of everyday fuel increases...and again IMO this will be our undoing...

 

Really? The Europeans have been dealing with these kinds of prices for most of this century, and while they are hardly the paragon of growth as the US has been in the past, they aren't in a depression because of those prices, but the idiot political decisions of their leaders. Which are sort of like ours, except worse, and they have less of a decent chunk of the world economy to wield.

I actually don't know any more. Why would I? I buy American produced and distributed fuel, stopping funding foreign countries awhile ago now. Down with foreign fuels!

Favorite pic!

View attachment 20726

 

Yes...really. Europeans cannot be compared to Americans when it comes to transportation...oranges and apples. Of the major nations the USA has the highest per capita cars and although I don't know the data I suspect our public transit sucks compared to Europe. This explains why Americans feel the pain at the pump so much while others can deal with higher fuel prices. But when fuel prices are higher this effects the prices of everything so fuel prices definitely effect the economy. And we already know in the USA that we feel the pain at $4/gallon and at $5/gallon there will be negative effects on the economy and it's anyone's guess what happens when it hits $6+/gallon? Except for having shortages of fuel or no fuel, the quantity of oil on Earth is really meaningless...what's important is how much it costs to produce this oil and it's impact on the economy...

 

Quite true, they don't have cars over there.

I am speculating here, but I'm betting that as prices get pretty high...people will change their behavior. Which is good, because in so doing they will A) validate basic economic theory and B) introduce yet many Americans to the wonders of commuting using American fuel, supporting American jobs and the American economy!

Well, the quantity of oil on earth is meaningful in the sense that when don't have any left, you get exactly the shortages or no fuel scenario you mention. And certainly everyone will notice that, Americans and Europeans alike!

 

I didn't say they don't have cars in Europe so why invent nonsense?

Of course people change their behavior when prices increase...including businesses.

Americans will feel the pain before those outside of the USA when oil/gas prices increase or there are shortages. I believe I read a few weeks ago that China just contracted for most of the oil from Iraq...industrialization of China and others is going to greatly increase oil consumption which will increase prices and perhaps create shortages in the USA. The USA consumes 25% of the world's oil so what happens when China and others start taking some of our 25%? We literally are days or weeks from $5/gallon gasoline if nations begin hardcore competition for existing oil supplies...it can happen this quickly. The USA is 100% dependent on oil/gasoline and like it or not this means we should be planning how to manage the nation on less oil and certainly no imported oil...

 

Because you made it sound as though they are different species, you know, them not needing oil like us Americans. Please, it was worth making fun of, it was a goof statement. Are they different than us? Sure. They have more expensive fuel and generally smaller cars, and didn't grow up the worlds oldest and most prolific producing province until 1970, with states larger than some of their countries to bomb around in. And they didn't invent drag racing or other cool ways of wasting fuel like we did.

But push comes to shove, fuel costs and shortages and effects them just like us, and their answer when prices got high wasn't to create a great depression or roll over and die. They bought smaller cars, and they pay more. Just like Americans since about 2000 I might add.

Shortages are always a possibility. All it takes is the electricity going out on the pipeline pump stations and the east coast gets hammered.

They've been doing it for years now. And so what has happened is that prices have increased because of that additional demand, and the US has gone on a massive behavioral change binge, invented things like EVs and whatnot so some of us can support our local economy, and if China wishes to become more dependent on crude, rather than what the US is doing by becoming less dependent, let them do it. Why should we care, other than if we are expats living in Beijing and dying of lung cancer because of all the good it is doing them?

The US is not 100% dependent on oil/gasoline, nowadays the ratio has dropped from something like 60% to 50%, and on a net basis (how much we export, BTU wise, versus our imports) we are about 87% self sourced in energy. So we have $5/gal... BIG DEAL. People didn't stop driving their 12 mpg pickups over the past half decade that prices have been that high, you don't seriously think they will stop just because it gets to half the price the Europeans pay do you?

I recommend more of this:



with occasional bursts of this:



and if you REALLY need to get across town in your suit for work, fine, one of these will work:



Burning fossil fuels is so...20th century...I recommend catching up with the times!

 

Or you could buy a Mazda that operates on hydrogen or gasoline. A rotary engine that can switch from gasoline to hydrogen at the push of a button.

The intake is seperate from the ignition and the exhaust eliminating pre-ignition problems. Hydrogen can be manufactered simply by several methods and you could even have a fueling station at your own home.

This could reduce oil consumption considerably.

 

I've already got a Mazda rotary. It runs on gasoline though. But is quite fun when doing so. It sucks gasoline like a sailor swills beer. But is quite fun when doing so. If I have to cough up the cash for a gas guzzling non-efficient cage, I darn well better have fun.

 

Europe is a different species when it comes to personal autos, miles driven per year, and public transit systems.

Europe and all other areas of Earth continue to need oil, however, many areas outside of the USA either don't care much about the price of oil or can tolerate much higher oil prices than in the USA. No doubt about this; when the economy of the USA is dragged down due to an oil crisis, the entire world is going to feel it.

Since WWII Americans have become spoiled with low fuel prices and 24/7 availability and this has helped energize the US economy. But all of this comes at a price when oil/gas prices must increase no matter government taxes and when the US economy remains fragile. When billions of people in the world are in the process of industrializing and modernizing, and demand of oil will increase by 50-100%, yet production of oil doesn't keep up with this growth, and/or people can't afford higher fuel prices/inflation, we are going to have serious issues.

China is actually doing far more about oil and climate change than the US is doing...they're not stupid people...they understand what can effect their growing economy.

If you don't believe the US is 100% dependent on oil/gasoline then please explain how planes will fly, trains will move, buses will operate, military tanks work, cargo ships can navigate, what you'll do without lawn mowers and weekwhackers and leaf blowers, what will propel 225 million personal vehicles in the USA, what will propel millions of 18-wheelers, what will heat homes/businesses using oil products, etc. etc. etc.?

Most everyone recognizes the potential issue with oil/gasoline. However, human behavior is typically not proactive...we are reactive and only when our asses are on fire. Most Americans live pay check to pay check and will not spend a dime on something which they perceive right or wrong carries some risk. And to invent and implement alternative drive mechanisms for the stuff I mentioned above might take 100 years to complete. Meanwhile we have less and less oil and potentially higher prices...

 

I have heard they are real rockets! I want something that uses a little less gasoline. I have checked out Honda's nat. gas car, plug ins, (yuck!) and hybrids. I am yet to make up my mind. If I want a thrill I'll just ride my bike. I have an 805cc Suzuki.

I haven't seen anything GM offers I like...except the pickups.

 

Depends on how you slice your species I imagine. Biologists slice them so hard nowadays you could argue that if the same rigor were applied to humans, they would all be labeled racist as they called those from this continent one thing, and those from another something else.

Sure Europeans are different. But not a different species.

Probably. But it sure won't be $4/$5 gasoline which does it, and in the process we will reduce our dependency on the stuff (like we are now) and it will be a competitive advantage against the rest of the world. Us American do that sort of stuff well. Hell, you could even argue we already have, and guys like me, and 75% of commuting Americans already have the EV solution we need to thumb our noses at those still stuck back in the 20th century with their ICE powered machines.

Explain how? Sure... Americans will do all of those things the same way they always do......they have a prime mover which runs on some form of energy or another with which to do useful work. There is no law that says this can only happen from products derived from crude oil. It is just convenient, and what we do NOW. Fortunately, as you yourself have mentioned, as it becomes more expensive it doesn't RUN OUT, it just gets more expensive, and as I've pointed out, Americans discover that the alternatives have gotten cheaper, and then they go do THAT.

Again correct. Which is why we NEED high prices for that gasoline, GM didn't start selling the Volt because gasoline was $0.50/gal. $4/gal is sure enough ass on fire to burn the pocketbook right out some cowboys blue jeans!

 

Just using 'your' words...

You can't easily and quickly reduce dependency on oil when the alternatives are not readily available or the economics don't work for average people. When gasoline hits $5/gallon in the USA, from $4.50/gallon to $5/gallon the economy will be slowing and slowing, and over $5/gallon will surely force change, but it will also force lots of economic pain and inflation. Makes no difference if EV's are available when the average person cannot afford one. And EV's don't solve the problem for any of the equipment I listed which is 100% dependent on fossil fuels.

IMO most of this discussion hinges on affordability of new technology and innovation of new technology to provide alternative choices. The other part of the equation is the implementation time to create change from fossil fuel equipment to something else. Meanwhile prices increase more and more, inflation rules the day, making it less likely people can afford potential alternatives. IMO we are setting ourselves up for some horrific hard times because we're too stupid and arrogant to heed the warnings and be proactive...

 

Easy and quickly are never words in the vocabulary of our species changing our behavior. And of COURSE alternatives are readily available, windpower generation is growing exponentially and will continue doing so for awhile yet, those solar panels on my garage exist, and the economics of a NEW EV are about the same as a NEW median priced ICE powered machine. Sure, not everyone has the garage for it, but you don't get to claim "don't work" when it ALREADY does.

An economist would call this "stimuli" whereas those who say "pain" are attaching an unnecessary connotation. The transition to a more efficient America started in the 70's, and there was certainly whining and crying and inflation about that change as well. Have no fear, today's change is tomorrows normal. And then we do normal for awhile, and the whining and moaning starts up all over again on some other topic. None of this is new.

The "average" new car buyer already can. My EV cost about $2G's more than the median (yeah, I know, average ain't median, but I'm letting the techno geek babble slip without being particular this afternoon) ICE powered machine, so of COURSE the average person can afford one. A more valid question is does it meet their needs, and the EVs haven't caught on hard enough yet for millions of people to say "yes" to that question. Only 10,000's. But from such small beginnings....

I've already answered that one, I see no reason to repeat myself. Fortunately the world running out of oil as claimed by the OP isn't the same as running out of fossil fuels, or worse yet, claims of peak "energy".

I could agree with this. As long as you don't limit the mechanism for it for something as easy to fix as the price or availability of oil.

 

If you restrict this discussion to oil production then we do not have readily available alternatives to most machinery and vehicles in the world today. We have a 'few' alternative vehicles, along with some wind, solar and geothermal energy generation. Affordability is a key issue in which government refunds and tax credits, etc. have played a huge roll in justifying the expense.

Yes there have been and continue to be changes regarding oil consumption and alternative energy, and yes they should not be discounted, but while this success exists, 98% of the USA remains 100% dependent on oil. Billions or maybe trillions of machines require oil products and for most of them there are no alternatives. Most governments are broke, most people are essentially broke, many businesses are struggling, the US and world economies remain iffy at best, so costs are a critical component of creating change. At least we continue to have public dialogue! Regarding your comment about the 70's, yes we have more options today, but we have an extraordinarily long time to go before we're entitled to any bragging rights...

 

As long as you define "readily available" as "tomorrow afternoon", sure, we don't have stuff to replace oil powered things. But I'll go you one better than just replacing the machines, there is no law we need to do that tomorrow afternoon because instead, I will manufacture the oil. That way those who just HAVE to have their liquid fuels can keep doing whatever they want with them. Those of us who aren't happy with liquid fuels can continue on our merry way using whatever else we like.

Someday, the two will be merged in one big happy system and it won't make any difference.

So what? That isn't a requirement of the physical world, it is just what some clever apes decided was the easiest thing to do one afternoon. Fortunately for us, and the world, there is more oil than we know what to do with right now, so there is no need to base end of the world fears of any type on just some valuable commodity.

Incorrect. We deserve bragging rights today. Why? Because some of us were paying attention in the 70's, and thereafter drove fuel efficient cars, and when cars powered by American produced and distributed fuels came along, we chose those because we already knew which way the world is headed. And we like to be out in front of the pack!

In the meantime, feel free to pay whatever those little numbers at the local fuel store dictate, and be unhappy about your dependence on them. Me, can't say I even notice much anymore. Fav pic!

View attachment 20846

 

In the near future, when gasoline hits $5/gallon, we will not have alternatives for billions of machines and equipment which use oil products. And it can take decades or longer to create these alternatives. And the alternatives must be affordable to average people. During these decades, inflation will destroy the economy. IMO it's really stupid to ignore these potential issues. Once again, no matter if the world is floating in oil, if it is not affordable to the average person, and if society is dependent on oil, no matter how you wish to spin it...this is not going to be a fun situation. These discussions are not about you or me; they are about all of society, all the economy, all the culture. You seem to believe you are sheltered or protected from an oil crisis and it's wide-ranging effects...

 

Then until we do, the world will continue to manufacture the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, asphant and other products that people need as the transition progresses. And I don't know about you, but I've already been $5/gal and more on trips to Alaska, Canada has had prices like that for years, and they are hardly keeling over in cardiac arrest from the horror of it.

Sort of. And no. the alternatives are already here, up and running, they just can't replace everything for everybody tomorrow afternoon. And economics does not require that "average" people can afford anything. Can you afford a Rolls Royce? I certainly can't. But that doesn't mean I keel over and die because I can't have a Rolls Royce, I buy something else instead. Gasoline at $5/gal, cheaper than what the Canadians have been paying has caused them to buy...pickup trucks and cars just like we have here in America. And Canada is about as "average" as you get.

Yeah, well, Jimmy tried that out and certainly while the economy wasn't happy, it didn't destroy it. I don't imagine the next round will do much different.

I agree with you. And certainly I, and many others, aren't stupid and are already on our way! I've got PVs on the roof helping to fuel the car, the house is insulated like hell won't have it, powered mostly by American abundant and inexpensive natural gas, the kids are within walking/bicycle distance of all their schools, if we are going to get inflation back, I'll switch back to CDs from the market I supose, and demand a raise just like everyone else. I imagine I'll get it, even if others don't.

You are so wildly off base it isn't even worth the emotocon! I am COMPLETELY familiar with oil crisis, part of my professional life is spent explaining them to others, that they might understand that anything in the future is yet another rinse/repeat cycle for this particular commodity. The various "running outs", the "peaks", the gasoline crisis of 1916, Good God Man, don't you remember! When easy oil disappeared (1901) and how horrifying that was? While it might sound like I make light of many things, part of the levity is my familiarity with all the OTHER times people ran screaming into the streets proclaiming the end.