We are at the peak in world oil production...

Shale oil was included. I'm referring to crude oil production. See the second chart in this article for details:

http://crudeoilpeak.info/world-crude-production-2013-without-shale-oil-is-back-to-2005-levels

That's data from the EIA.

 

How about this one; http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2012/06/25/how-much-oil-does-the-world-produce/

Or maybe this one; http://allcountries.org/uscensus/1178_world_crude_oil_daily_production.html

Or perhaps others don't want to know real facts...

 

Well the news on battery technology is that may a taken a huge leap forward that could kill gas...a new aluminum storage battrry o be used in conjunction with existing auto battery technology is said to give electric cars a 1300km range on a single charge...

 

Speak English. We were talking about world oil production peaking.

And I'm referring to chemical feedstock. What idiot makes a difference between light sweet crude oil from a reservoir rock generated in a different source rock and light sweet crude oil from a reservoir rock generated in a different source rock?

Because whoever did it…doesn't understand much about oil.

We're using what we use because someone is willing to pay for the products made from it. I recommend using less, if you believe using oil is evil for some religious reason.

Horse(*)(*)(*)(*). The energy return is irrelevant, only the market value of the BTU is relevant. Please do try and keep up, this is really Econ101.

Fatih Birol was claiming peak oil back in 2006. TOD in 2008. Except that neither happened. Fatih withstood reality making him look a bit foolish, as an economist, he accepted it. The oil-ignorant at TOD became a punchline at national professional conferences, and got out of dodge real quick like. See URTeC conference in 2013 for reference.

 

Don't count on getting any of those from Ralfy. Next thing you know he will be pimping internet links to reports claiming all sorts of peak oil…but NONE from when peak oil was being claimed by Colin Campbell in 1989 or so. Can't have facts OldMan, sorry, only the dogma as preached from the pews, read from the Holy Book itself.

 

One set of good news involves the argument that we are reaching peak demand. That means even if oil production peaks, we'll do fine because demand will peak as well.

The problem is that capitalist systems require increasing consumption, which means increasing demand.

The definitions are given by the EIA and the IEA. If you have an authoritative source that shows no difference, then feel free to mention it.

That doesn't contradict my argument.

It's very relevant because low energy returns lead to high capital expenditures and steep decline curves. That's why costs for the oil industry has increased significantly in return for marginal increases in production, while shale oil is expected to peak in only a few years and not a few decades.

Also, market value is not relevant because oil price is determined by the market and not by the producers. That's why we are seeing higher capex clashing with a market that can barely tolerate high prices. See Kopits' lecture on oil market forecasting for details:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLCsMRr7hAg

From what I remember, the IEA argued in 2006 that crude oil production will peak after several decades. In 2008, it conducted an extensive survey of oil fields, then released a report in 2010 stating that crude oil production peaked in 2006. Recent information from the EIA shows that when shale oil figures are separated from crude oi.

Also, consider oil production per capita, which is more logical as increasing production is needed by a growing population. That peaked in 1979:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2013/07/peak-oil-what-peak-oil.html

That includes multiple data sets.

Finally,

"US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts"

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ale-oil-boom-over-energy-revolution-blackouts

 

Why 1989 or so? There have been many reports released by various groups during the last few years. Here's a list:

https://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/

Notice that they come from various sources, including multinational banks, energy agencies, military organizations, and oil companies.

 

Unless it is balanced by increasing efficiency of course. Exactly the model the US followed between the 70's and nowadays.

Religious belief and zealotry aren't an argument. Matt Savinar was quite clear in pointing out how peak oilers on his site had near religious levels of belief. You certainly don't have to run around continuing to PROVE it everywhere, Matt went away and became an astrologist...take a hint from him...become a carnival barker or something.

Reservoir dynamics and underlying permeability lead to why some declines are steep, and others are not. Expensive wells are what lead to high CapEx, not low productivity wells. You would know this if you spent any time learning ANYTHING about the industry your religion fixates on.

Expected by those who know far more than you, because you, and other LATOC halfwits, were preparing your bunkers back in 2005 for the Natural Gas Cliff in America! Or the Olduvai Cliff event...pick your hysterical half witted event.

Instead, what resource economists all over the world already knew happened...higher prices lead to development deeper inside the resource pyramid. Go look it up. Show it to your friends. Learn something. Stop preaching dogma already discredited by reality. It didn't happen the way you were praying back in 2005, and it certainly isn't going to happen going forward.

For reference, your EIA source was also demonstrating high resource cases at the AAPG national conference in April, in Houston. In that scenario, the tight/shale became a plateau and did not decline at all. I imagine you were there in the audience to discuss resource issues with those who are paid to understand them? Certainly I was.

Why? Is he the newest, "not yet discredited" peak oiler? You like him better why, he doesn't have Campbell's baggage? Heinberg's inexperience? Ruppert's psychosis?

Fatih Birol was proclaiming peak oil. You were paying attention then weren't you? Please tell us your peak oil knowledge isn't as shallow as the guy who started this thread.

and again you miss efficiency....you do realize that some of us, we don't even use liquid fuels to commute to and fro anymore, right? And better yet, generate our fuels from our rooftops? Where do you live that you don't know these pieces of the transition happening all around us?

Thats what peak oilers said about 2005 as well. Instead the drilling industry brought in so much new supply that it crashed the price, and is now allowing the conversion of electrical generation to be more natural gas fired.

Funny how you want to pitch the same bad ideas as last time. I recommend you figure out why you were so wrong before, and what that means to trying to use the same oil and gas industry ignorance to make yet more bad proclamations.

How about this one from memory lane? You were there cheering it along, you and those religious LATOCians.

 

There is NO supply shortage... and we are awash in oil.

You should consider some reliable sources of information re: the oil industry.

 

1989 because you don't include all the PRIOR claims of peak oil on your list. And whipping it out was expected, pimping only recent ideas is a bit of a giveaway though.

Notice that you don't include the running out of oil arguments from the government in 1943. Hubbert's estimate of peak in the US...by 1950. Jimmy Carter's running out claims by the end of the 80's. And why isn't there a full discussion of the Olduvai cliff in 2008? For lack of natural gas?

Funny, the things you decide not to include on your list. How about the prediction of running out within a generation...in 1886? You forget that one as well? Dogma is great, peak oilers specialize in it, I recommend thinking for yourself. Not YOU specifically, those this deep into oil-ignorance might not have the capability, but please, don't breed, we need folks going forward who can, not more lunkheads.

 

Ralfy is one of the original religious fundamentalists from Life After The Oil Crash. Which itself crashed and its fearless leader labeled them off psycho nut jobs and ran off to become..an astrologist. He only seeks out information that supports his point of view, as any honest ideologue does. And when peak oil doesn't happen as claimed, say, when TOD claimed it was happening in 2008, he comes up with some other angle and trolls for the gullible.

Him and Jiggsy are in the same church, probably sit in pews right next to each other.

 

Peak Oil Debunked.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2005/09/89-sadad-al-husseini.html

These fools are cherry picking Sadad Al Husseini's remarks.

 

Of course. And they cite studies debunked by reality itself, ignore the rinse and repeat cycles of the same claims across 3 different centuries now, they are goldfish and with every flick of their tail...all is new again!

 

What is taking place is not increasing efficiency but decreasing consumption due to financial crisis. More details below.

Also, in capitalist systems efficiency leads to more consumption, not less, as the goal of businesses is increasing profits.

Finally, the point of efficiency doesn't counter my arguments. Rather, the need for efficiency is a response to peak oil.

What I presented to you are not religious beliefs but data given by the IEA, EIA, and others. The conclusions made regarding crude oil production are by the IEA.

Not some declines but shale oil in general.

And it's not wells being expensive but drilling more wells each time to maintain production level. That's driven by peak oil.

The same problem applies to crude oil, which is why capex doubled in return for only a marginal increase in production.

More details are given in the Kopits lecture shared earlier.

But the arguments I gave come from the IEA and other organizations. See for yourself.

You just supported my argument. Your first sentence accurately describes what I've been saying.

Also, your first sentence contradicts your last sentence.

I never argued that tight oil is in a plateau. What I wrote is that more wells are being drilled just to maintain production.

In addition, the EIA has just cut estimates for Monterey.

But you just confirmed what he argued in your earlier paragraph.

The IEA argued in 2006 that crude oil production would peak after a few decades. In 2008, they conducted a survey of oil fields. In 2010, they confirmed that crude oil production peaked in 2006. The latest EIA data up to October 2013 confirms this.

The main cause is not better mileage but fewer miles traveled. More details here:

"Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage?"

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/01/31/why-is-us-oil-consumption-lower-better-gasoline-mileage/

Also, to recap, efficiency isn't a counter to peak oil but a response to it.

As explained earlier, crude oil is now being replaced by shale oil to meet increasing demand. The problem, as shown in the article, is that shale oil will last for only a few years. Meanwhile, demand has to keep rising to meet increasing consumption for the rest of the world.

Finally, the price did not crash. It's still around $100 a barrel.

All of these support peak oil: replacement of crude oil by shale oil, shale oil production peaking after only a few years, and prices remaining high.

I didn't write what you shared, and I never made such "proclamations" in the past.

What I do know is that predictions involved both extremes, i.e., oil price soaring to $200, and oil price plummeting to less than $30.

 

FWIW, some oil companies have discussed the matter publicly. For example, from 2011:

"Exxon, Shell Both Essentially Admit Peak Oil Is Upon Us - Or Will Be Soon"

http://www.treehugger.com/corporate...dmit-peak-oil-is-upon-us-or-will-be-soon.html

There's also production rates declining. From 2013:

"Total Production by the Top Five Oil Majors Has Fallen by a Quarter Since 2004"

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9946

 

Why do you want to look at old reports? Why not new ones, as they contain recent and updated data? That's what I've been sharing in my latest posts.

1950? Hubbert wrote his report in 1956:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert#Research

Hubbert predicted a peak in U.S. oil production by the late '60s or early '70s. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. In 1976, Hubbert predicted a peak in crude oil production after 1995 + 10 years, or 2005:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY

This was confirmed by the IEA in 2010.

The reason why I did not include them in my list is because I am focusing on what Hubbert argued, and so far he has been right.

 

The U.S. will be completely energy self sufficient by 2025.

Oil will not run out in our lifetimes as everything from Coal to Oil Tech. and Canadian Oil Tar Sands will generate all the oil we need.

Production of oil will however eventually fall as new energy generation methods take it's place.

AboveAlpha

 

Let us know when those "details" show up in the stock market, growth in GDP, rebound in housing values and dropping unemployment, would you?

Parrots, like you and Jiggsy, don't make "arguments", when you tried that years ago it turns out that not only didn't peak happen, but neither did the draft, or the collapse of the world, or the other claims that your religion has been advocating.

So where my comments on the high resource case, as presented at AAPG in April. Surely you saw it?

Claiming peak oil...again...in THIS century, unlike all the claims for the LAST one, or even the one BEFORE that, isn't an argument either. And your refusal to understand the number of times it has been claimed, and not happened, is quite telling on your objectivity in this matter. Your knowledge on the industry, and peak oil in general through time, already having been found quite lacking by you and your LATOC friends.

And the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Why don't you try learning a little bit about reservoir dynamics before pretending you know anything on this topic? let me guess....that isn't what you were sent here to pimp?

So that is the answer for global peak oil back in 1979 as well? The world responded by becoming more efficient because of peak oil in 1979. Sure...and that Colin Campbell will be unhappy to hear that him claiming it for 1989 was as silly as the playbook you read from...not being able to actually think, or is it ALLOWED to think, about the facts of this matter?

As explained before, there is no difference between light sweet crude oil and light sweet crude oil. Do you even know what oil IS?

You should try updating wiki then. It seems to think that peak oil is about a maximum rate, and terminally decline following it. Might I recommend you tell them your ideas and see how well they think price has anything to do with it?

How many times did Hubbert claim his peak concept was price dependent back in 1956....exactly? You can COUNT can't you?

You have made many. Why can't we find them on LATOC anymore?

You don't know anything except the PR material you are here to sell. Why is it you won't mention your LATOC involvement? And what that particular prophet said of your psychological tendencies?

- - - Updated - - -

The Oil Drum went belly up when professional organizations began using them as a punchline to their jokes. You do KNOW this don't you? Would you like the date and time I first noticed it?

 

Old reports demonstrate the number of times your ideas have been cycled. And why the world didn't end then either. Why would you want to pollute this website as your ideas did LATOC?

Hubbert predicted that the US would peak on or before 1950 back in 1938.

May I recommend you learn a little more on the topic before cherry picking only the predictions you like?

The IEA confirmed that Hubbert was claiming peak oil in the US for 1950? How amazing. Do you have a link?

Except for peak in the US by 1950. Except for his world oil production rate (13 bby, are you KIDDING?) from the seminal work that the peak oil religion is built on. Except for his call for peak natural gas in the US back in the early 70's. Except for bell shaped curves correlating with URR. Do you know ANYTHING about peak oil you haven't been spoon fed by halfwits?

 

I joined the forum much later, and used it to gather information on this issue.

To recap, according to the IEA, crude oil production peaked in 2010. The latest EIA data confirms this.

 

That article is from 2005. More recent information is needed. For example, from January 2014:

"An Interview with Dr. Sadad Al-Husseini"

http://peak-oil.org/2014/01/13716/

 

According to the IEA and other sources, U.S. shale oil will peak by 2020.

Also, peak oil is not about running out of oil.

Finally, the rest of your post supports peak oil. That is, as crude oil production peaks and drops, unconventional oil will have to be used. That is what is currently happening.

Again, keep in mind that if peak oil is not going to take place, then there would be no need to use unconventional oil to meet increasing demand.

 

I am not arguing that at some point relatively soon Oil Production will peak.

But it will peak not because of lack of more oil.

It will peak because demand will peak.

AboveAlpha

 

No we won't be. As long as we buy our own oil on a global market we are dependent on global demand, nit just US demand.

Nobody has ever seriously said we would. We have maybe 200-300 years of oil reserves in the US, you know, if we stop selling it to China.

Or new energy will take its place as the availability of oil declines. Same ends, but a different route. Now what we should be doing is converting to hemp oil.

 

The United States will be "energy self-sufficient" by 2035 thanks to the domestic shale-drilling boom, flat or declining demand and other factors, according to Mark Finley, general manager of global energy markets at London-based BP plc, one of the world's leading oil and natural gas companies.
Other factors will make US “Energy Self-Sufficient”
www.commodities-now.com/...energy/16309-shale-boom-other-factors-wil...

Other groups predict 2025 and 2030.

AboveAlpha