What do you make of "Omicron" (COVID Variant B.1.1.529)? Big deal? No big deal?

And yet you were able to refute nothing. Your unconditional surrender is accepted.

 

Nope. HCOV-NL63 and HCOV-HKU1 are not common colds. Both are URIs.

The persistently positive PCR for HCoV-NL63 in both upper and lower respiratory tract secretions, and the increase in viral load, as well as a negative extensive search for an alternative etiology, strongly suggest that HCoV-NL63 was indeed the cause of her fatal illness.

https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/rccm.201506-1239LE

People do not die of common colds.

Children who had HCoV-HKU1 infection had evidence of either upper or lower respiratory tract infection or both. Two patients had disease beyond the respiratory tract. HCoV-HKU1 was identified from December 2001 to February 2002. Sequence analyses suggest that a single strain was circulating. HCoV-HKU1 is therefore likely circulating in the United States and is associated with upper and lower respiratory tract disease.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3374449/

 

Please. Are you trying to teach medicine to a physician with 41 years of experience, someone who also holds a PhD with expertise in Virology and Immunology? LOL. This is the typical case of lay person (lay as in, not an MD) who reads medical information and misunderstands it, then runs with it. And says "nope" to an experienced physician like me.

What the hell are you getting at, when you say that these viruses are URI??? You said "are not common colds. Both are URIs."

Common colds are Upper Respiratory Illnesses (URIs), dear.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses

From the article quoted above:

"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold."

There is no such thing as "these two coronaviruses are common cold, and these two are URI" given that the common cold is an URI.

Now, do you want proof that all 4 usually benign human coronaviruses cause the common cold?

Here, see this paper on all seven human coronaviruses:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204879/

From this paper:

"Seven human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have been so far identified, namely HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV, a.k.a. SARS-CoV-2). Unlike the highly pathogenic SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and 2019-nCoV, the four so-called common HCoVs generally cause mild upper-respiratory tract illness and contribute to 15%–30% of cases of common colds in human adults, although severe and life-threatening lower respiratory tract infections can sometimes occur in infants, elderly people, or immunocompromised patients."

See, in red font above, that ALL FOUR, 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 can cause the common cold? That's all that I said.

But yes, they can ALSO cause more threatening lower respiratory infection, which can be life-threatening, like the article says, in blue above. Which is what your papers were reporting, and is also reported by this paper that I'm quoting. One thing doesn't exclude the other. These four (all four), usually benign human coronaviruses, can cause mild URIs like the common cold, and can ALSO cause in certain patients, lower and more dangerous respiratory infections.

And yes, people do die of the common cold (or at least, of complications of it). Maybe more accessible to you is this article intended for lay people:

https://theconversation.com/can-you-die-from-a-common-cold-126241

"The common cold is normally a mild illness that resolves without treatment in a few days. And because of its mild nature, most cases are self-diagnosed. However, infection with rhinovirus or one of the other viruses responsible for common cold symptoms can be serious in some people. Complications from a cold can cause serious illnesses and, yes, even death – particularly in people who have a weak immune system."

It is unusual. But it does happen. It's unusual enough for cases to be published in case-report papers.

And see this major review paper; notice how it starts in its first two phrases:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7125703/

"Respiratory viral infections, also known as the common cold, are the most common infections in humans. Despite their benign nature, they are a major cause of morbidity and mortality on a worldwide basis."

"And mortality." Get it?

 

Yes. It is really quite sad.

 

I'm with @CenterField all the way on reminding that the know far too little about this particular variant to be able to say anything definitive yet and furthermore, since C-19 deaths are -logically- a lagging indicator (or factor, if you will), we will have a better picture vis-a-vis Omicron in the next 5 weeks or so.

Who knows, in the middle of Omicron yet another variant could also spring up. This is the price we are ALL paying for not having completely tapped this thing down while it was small in 2020.

 

@CenterField

Dr. Center, you observe, "We feared recombination as an event that might make this virus an even more dangerous one... but it turns out that it may have recombined with a benign one." This is good news, at least for the time being. Maybe we 'dodged a bullet', even if Omicron does become the dominant strain.

To get a balanced perspective, every day I read news as reported in a wide variety of websites, from far-right Newsmax all the way over the far-left Bloomberg, and from rah-rah FoxNews all the way over to partisan (but often very revealing) RT. Now, I'm trying to get perspective on how these 'variants' just appear seemingly out of nowhere, I found this at RT: https://www.rt.com/news/542339-africa-incubator-covid-strains/ .

Nothing really surprising... we've known forever that human hygiene-related topics throughout the Third-World show again and again that areas like Sub-Saharan Africa are ideal locations for diseases to spread, but do you concur that they are also likely to be areas in which viruses "recombine"? If so, is it likely that we can expect a continuous stream of 'new-and-improved' viruses and their variations for as far into the future as we can see?

It looks like we in the First-World are essentially going be forced to 'take custody' of places like Sub-Saharan Africa, and make governments and people there submit to First-World medical expertise, medicine, and technology... and, we're going to have to PAY for it, too. Without really trying to leverage this into a 'political' thing, if this is the only by which we can save humanity from continuous waves of perhaps worse and ever-worse diseases, won't we be accused of subjecting the native Black population to "White Man's rule"? If all this about Africa being a gigantic 'petri dish' for new-and-improved diseases, what can we do about it, realistically?

Ironically, the Chinese have more influence there than anyone else, but you never hear anyone carping and complaining about East-Asians forcing their will on a hapless (if still rather backward) indigenous Black African population.

 

Do you realize that RT is Russia Today, the English-language propaganda arm of the Kremlin (they own the station)? Beware of what they say. They are known for lies and misinformation to advance the Kremlin's agenda abroad.

But sometimes they get it right, so, anyway, yes, given Africa's huge HIV population, it is common for their inhabitants to be immunocompromised so that viruses linger in their organisms for a long time, and people acquire more than one virus simultaneously, which is what leads to recombination.

What to do about it? That escapes my expertise as it is a geo-political and economic problem; the consequences of colonialism won't be reversed in the short term.

 

Fair enough... and yes, as I mentioned, I know RT is Russia Today and, crafted to be 'partisan' toward Russia. But, sometimes they will cover topics that many other 'news' sites won't touch.

Your reaction to my observation that Sub-Saharan Africa is a 'petri dish' for diseases, past, present, and future, is certainly understandable. You are a physician, not a politician, and I should have remembered that before posing the issue to you. Perhaps in the back of my mind I was musing about the possibility that internationally-respected medical authorities might seize the 'baton' and tell all these hopelessly corrupt tribal and faction "leaders" in Sub-Saharan Africa to get out of the way and let the modern medical world move in and clean up their mess up for them, with the expense to be born by us 'wealthy' countries (even as we happily drown in incalculable amounts of debt for our own needs already).

Indeed, it is a geopolitical problem with enormous economic ramifications -- in Africa and throughout the rest of the world. And, it's probably fair for more advanced nations in "the West" to have to bear the expense of rescuing the "third world" from these diseases, for our own sakes if for no other. I still think that China ought to have to pay for the majority of it, but...

 

That's what Doctors Without Borders, the originally French organization called Médecins Sans Frontières, tries to do. They have a number of missions in Saharian and Sub-Saharian Africa. At times they are received with gratitude and openness, at times with suspicion and lack of cooperation, and at times they are kidnapped/raped by extremists or warrying ethnic tribes... (it has happened, look it up).

I'm quite charitable but not as courageous... I do make sure that at year end I send sizable donations to organizations that help African children such as Unicef. But volunteering for Doctors Without Borders and going there in person, I think my courage doesn't go that far, and if my wife went, my daughter, or my daughter-in-law, I'd be very nervous until their safe return.

One would be exposed to all sorts of tropical diseases, plus risks of being kidnapped, raped, and killed... not good. I admire the ones who have the courage to go, but it's not for me (although I had enough courage to help out at my hospital's Covid unit - before the vaccines - for several months - at this point, no more - but you know, that was a familiar environment, my place of employment for the last 18 years, surrounded by beloved colleagues and co-workers... although there was a risk of catching the virus, there wasn't a risk of being kidnapped or killed...).

One of the strategies that people who did go reported once they got back (I do know some colleagues who did), is that MSF tries to respect local costumes and culture. They don't try to come and say "we're the learned Western doctors while you are just ignorant and primitive tribesmen so step aside and do as we tell you." Which would lead to a much bigger risk of being kidnapped, raped, and killed... Or just would result in resentment and poor cooperation.

So they seem to try to be very gentle, and try to influence the local culture in favor of modern medicine, little by little and in a respectful manner.

Like, "yes, that sounds wonderful; for your ailment, do see the shaman; let him do his ritual healing dance; it's all good, and do drink his potion, together with this pill that I'm also giving you..."

 

I salute you, Dr. Center, and on the strength of your convictions, I'm going to start a blitz on my elected officials telling them that as much as I am allergic to spending so much government money so often, they should start being vocal in support (yes, with MONEY) for valid organizations like Doctors Without Borders that can actually go into Third World countries and wipe out the breeding grounds for these horrible diseases before they arrive on our shores.

You are, quite honestly, a much 'nicer' person than I am, but maybe some of you is 'rubbing-off' on me. Oh, and as close to retirement as you are, please do NOT even think about going to one of those places. We 'old guys' have to be mindful that we're not supermen anymore (part of why my wife and I were vaxxed as soon as we could arrange it, and, why we were 'boostered' on THE day that we were eligible. I thank you, sir, for my enhanced 'diligence' in this matter.

 

What do you make of "Omicron" (COVID Variant B.1.1.529)? Big deal? No big deal?

I make nothing of it. Mutating is what viruses do, assuming they actually do anything. We will see hundreds or perhaps thousands of mutations in the future. It is time to stop obsessing about them and get back to work.

 

Omicron may be the safest way to natural immunity.

"Should we figure out if Omicron is so mild it acts as a natural vaccine before rolling out a vaccine to stop the vaccine?"

 

Well, it turned out to me mild, no worse than the flu. That is good news after Delta, which was a killer.

 

Let's hope Omicron remains little more than a nuisance, and that it is likely to push Delta out as the 'dominant' strain before too very long.

Golly... what started out to look like a real 'tiger' right after Thanksgiving has turned out to be a 'pussycat'...? And just in time not to screw up the 'year-end' surge in stock market prices or the the big 'holiday' buying spree-- a huge 'win-win' all the way around.

. See? Not everything about the Empire is bad!

 

Yep, DOW is up 1300 points in 2 days. Good noose.

 

Probably a good time to get natural immunity.

 

Yes, this could be the natures cure for it.

 

I don't know about a cure but it will help make finish making the virus endemic so we can live with it. It is natural for a virus to have successful mutations that provide less dangerous symptoms. Killing the host stops spread dead in its tracks. More contagious and less harmful is the best path forward for the virus.

 

First study of vaccine efficacy against Omicron has been released.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/07/heal...Wo/to7jliuD0w57xrxbY1is+n&bt_ts=1638963471903

Very small, blood from only 12 subjects. Substantial reduction in protection for people who got just the basic vaccination, no booster and no natural infection; in one of the subjects, 41 times less. People who had the natural infection then got vaccinated still got sufficient neutralizing antibodies.

The study did not include people who did not get infected, got vaccinated, then got a booster. Its author speculates that they will also have good protection.

The bottom line is that Omicron significantly evades vaccine-induced immunity but not completely as it was feared.

Of course this small study needs confirmation, and the situation of vaccinated and boostered needs to be tested, too.

 

That is pretty much what I meant. A milder variant will infect people without making them seriously sick, and as a result we gain natural immunity and ability to fight it off. Same is true with the common cold and flu. Cold and flu still kill people, but at a much lesser rate.

 

Much much less frequent than with covid. The important issue is that government can't end a pandemic even though it promises to do so. I have never seen it do worse job with anything than covid in my lifetime.

 

That means that 2020 government job is the worst you have ever seen in your life, and you voted for more of the same anyway. How come?

 

@Pollycy You asked me to keep you informed. There's been two new - and very positive - developments regarding Omicron.

One, the monoclonal antibody drug sotrovimab made by GSK/Vir was shown to bind well to all 37 mutations identified in the Omicron's spike protein, which bodes well for its clinical efficacy against the Omicron.

Two, Pfizer has established that while neutralizing antibodies against Omicron do not seem to be sufficient to avoid infection for those who received only two doses of their vaccine, a booster dose seem to do the trick and dramatically push up the titer of neutralizing antibodies 25-fold, to a concentration that does inhibit Omicron.

More studies will be coming (I expect that the other monoclonal antibody makers will test their products against Omicron too, as well as Moderna), more and more, but we already know that we have two weapons that work against Omicron: 3 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, or two infusions of sotrovimab.

On the other hand, another study has preliminarily shown that Omicron might be four times more transmissible than Delta.

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THIS POST IS OLD. APPARENTLY I FORGOT TO CLICK ON "POST REPLY" AND IT NEVER GOT POSTED. THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED. SEE BELOW.

 

@Pollycy I promised to keep you posted, so I come back to this thread from time to time to tell you the latest.

Sorry my friend, but the proverbial s... has hit the fan.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472719v1.full.pdf

This new Columbia University study released pre-print today, pre-peer-review (but I stand behind Dr. David Ho, he is a fine scientist), is nothing short of catastrophic in terms of antigenic drift for Omicron.

It's a near total drift. Dr. Ho and his assistants found virtually no efficacy of convalescent plasma, the 4 main vaccines (our 3 + AZ) including boosters, and 19 different monoclonal antibodies, and also spotted 4 additional mutations to the spike protein that hadn't been described before.

Of course there is still cellular immunity.

But it seems like our existing vaccines will do almost nothing against Omicron.

At Cornell University, in 4 days, a "very high" percentage of Omicron was found in 986 students who tested positive, and 97% of them were fully vaccinated, some boosted. They did not mention the exact number that they considered "very high" because the diagnosis was, I assume, by S-gene dropout in the PCR tests rather than by genomic sequencing, so they don't have the exact number, given that while an S-gene dropout is very common in Omicron and very rare in Delta, chances are overwhelming that most if not all cases with the S-gene dropout are indeed Omicron, but elegantly, given the lack of absolute certainty, they just said "very high."

To put it in perspective, 986 students in 4 days tested positive... while the previous 90 days PUT TOGETHER had 465 students positive.

In 4 freaking days Omicron caused twice as many infections as the total of the last 90 days! With almost all students being fully vaccinated!

And it's just the beginning.

[For those who don't know Virology/Immunology, an "S-gene dropout" refers to a PCR test that of its three genetic detectors, for the viral genes that codify for the S, the N2, and the E proteins, the test only detects N2 and E but not S, which is almost always the case for Omicron, but is almost never the case for Delta which shows positive in all three]

 

On the good side, a study from a medical school in Hong Kong found that Omicron reproduces 70 times faster than Delta in the upper respiratory tract, but 10 times slower than Delta in the lungs. This may explain why it looks so much more infectious, but maybe milder.

With the exponential explosion of new cases, and the near-total antigenic drift (escape from vaccines, convalescent plasma, natural immunity, vaccine immunity, boosters, and monoclonal antibodies), this thing can't be stopped with the weapons we have at this time.

Our only hope is that it's milder. If it isn't, we're screwed.

Maybe not only hope. The oral antibodies, and cellular immunity, are also hopes.

But this is not looking good.