WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

You are far from alone when it comes to turning your back on the criminal IMPOTUS.

And, to be perfectly frank, he does not deserve your support either.

America as a whole deserves far better than what he is doing to our nation.

The sooner we are all rid of him the better.

 

How's he botched the testing? He isn't the one giving anyone a test.

 

Sure.

You will promise to remind me in 18 months, right?

 

For sure...just like I remind me of your Jessie hoax.

 

You are ready to condemn Trump's handling of COVID-19 once the deaths cross 200k though, right?

 

Of course....

 

The problem is folks like yourself was saying that from the day he won the election. So it rings even more hollow now as you never gave him a chance.
The extreme bias from most on the left was never hard to see.

Your trying to portray this as a failed response and thus worthy of scorn when in reality your just using it to bash Trump as you have been the entire time.

 

You and you capital letters. It’s like yelling during a conversation, you know who does that? People who’s point is invalid or who argue from emotion as opposed to logic.

It’s not his responsibility to protect you from a virus, that’s your responsibility.

Freedom is scary huh?

 

I wish it wasn't so, but here is another grim update from last Thursday. Below is the math from the last 4 weeks, now I added the actual cases in the right column:

1 50
2 150
3 450 1,500, last Thursday
4 1350 7,800, today
5 4050
6 12150
7 36450
8 109350
9 328050
10 984150
11 2952450
12 8857350
13 26572050
14 79716150
15 239148450

Now, as is clearly evident, the increase in cases is exponential, as predicted. The rate of growth is also much faster than predicted. Why? Because of the lack of testing. Thus, the number of cases in weeks 1 and 2 were highly under-counted. As testing ramps up, expect to see another jump in cases, giving a much clearer picture of where we are at.

Those of you who are still complacent, I'd recommend to rethink and protect yourself and others. The ONLY way to beat this is to reduce the R0 by social distancing. However, that won't work if half the population thinks it is a hoax. Look at the numbers and the science, not the politics.

 

I am really starting to hate these updates:

1 50
2 150
3 450 1,500, Thursday two weeks ago
4 1350 7,800, last Thursday
5 4050 84,000 today
6 12150
7 36450
8 109350
9 328050
10 984150
11 2952450
12 8857350
13 26572050
14 79716150
15 239148450

We are weeks ahead of the initial math predictions. Anyone still thinking this is not a big deal and exponential growth is a myth?

 

It's a big deal, just not nearly as big as the doom & gloom crowd say it is. It never has been.
More test equal more confirmed case, no surprise there. It's been spreading for weeks and weeks, if not months in the US. We will never know the number of cases as most just push thru it and recover.

 

I don't know how you can justifiably argue that we will never know because most just push thru it.

 

From 7800 to 85365 (the current worldofmeters count) is an exponential growth of ~1.267.

At that pace, the US will have 1,769,830 by next Thursday. And then 82.4 million the following week.

By virtue of just putting out a range there, if the exponential growth is instead ~1.225 (which is 1500 to 7800), then the values would 1,098,544 next week and then 25.1 million.

 

What I think we are learning from the exponentiation originally done by @Quantum Nerd and a few others is that Covid19 is more like an iceberg than anything else.

The exponentiation was based upon the tip that is visible and that does not give us an accurate image of the extent of the infection that has occurred prior to showing symptoms.

The most accurate image we currently have is Italy and Spain and that alone is staggering. What is happening in India would probably blow everyone's minds if we had accurate figures. Somehow I doubt that we will get them now and it will have to be estimated backwards from the death toll afterwards.

Right now it is looking like 1 in every 25 people who are infected could die and we have no way of knowing how many are infected at this point in time.

 

1 in 25? How did you come to that number?

 

Current death rate among those infected is about 4% which is the same thing as 4 people out of every 100 or 1 in 25.

 

1 in 25 is 4%.

 

C'mon T, you knw that's a worst case calculation. You know damn well that the actual cases of coronavirus are well above 552,943.

 

A) Not a worst case calculation because Italy has a mortality rate around 9% and technically you should be comparing the mortality against the recovered across a given time frame. Using the screenshot above, that would be a mortality rate closer to 20%.

B) You wanted to know the source for the 4% claim.

C) Given the sheer volume of data currently available, using that method is not defensible.

 

Assuming that the number of cases exceeds the reported number, and I agree that it probably does, we still cannot be certain that the reported number of deaths is 100% accurate either. There are indirect collateral deaths that are occurring in Italy and Spain because the health system is overwhelmed. There are also Covid-19 deaths that are not reported because there is no testing to determine that they were infected.

So going by what we DO have in the way data ONLY we are seeing 4% or 1 in 25. What the final percentage ends up being is still TBD.

 

Exactly, we don't have the data available to calculate the true number yet. But, when we do the smart money says it will be WAY below 4%. I hope so anyway.

 

I think China has skewed the numbers bigly by underreporting infections, thus increasing the death percentage.

 

Or maybe Underreporting DEATHS, and the numbers could actually be higher.

I don't believe the numbers coming out of China.

 

Agreed. But if that were the case, that would mean victims are most likely being ignored and the death toll percentage should be inflated because of the neglect.

 

Didn't do my update last week, but here we are Thursday again, so it's time for another one:

1 50
2 150
3 450 1,500, four weeks ago
4 1350 7,800, three weeks ago
5 4050 84,000 two weeks ago
6 12150 246,000 last Thursday
7 36450 435,000 today
8 109350
9 328050
10 984150
11 2952450
12 8857350
13 26572050
14 79716150
15 239148450

While we are still ahead of the predicted numbers, however, I am VERY happy to say that the pattern of exponential growth has been broken:



On the log scale, the graph should be linear for exponential growth. Clearly, it stopped being linear by the end of March. Social distancing IS WORKING.

God only knows what would have happened if the Governors didn't have the foresight to implement these draconian rules. We would have more than 10 million cases by now.

So, while we are not out of the woods yet, there is light at the end of the tunnel.