Why Severe Social Distancing Might Actually Result In More Coronavirus Deaths

After these long weeks, drawn out in our minds, to days - hours - minutes - with no definitive terminus in sight, it's perhaps a primal & commonsencical (almost a seeming abberation) of logic that surfaces within us (or at least myself) in asking What the F? Is this actually possible for another month? Months? Where do we draw the line on financial crisis & subservience to our State 'overloards'? I've got S___ to do, a business to run & wealth to grow...

Obviously U need to read 'the rest of the story'...

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/0...t-actually-result-in-more-coronavirus-deaths/

 

So your plan is once 2-3 million Americans are dead of the virus and a few hundred thousands from lack of available hospital beds and 5-600 million deaths globally we'll be fine? Oh and herd immunity doesn't work where the virus can mutate so we'd probably have to sacrifice a few more millions next year.

You might want to rethink your plan a bit.

 

Herd immunity is a political nightmare, which is why nobody in power will support it. At least not now. They have to make every effort to 'save' people prior to economic ruin. Britain was going down that road and balked due to public pressure. We'll have no choice soon and adopt it because any vaccine is too far out. Once panic set in, much caused by the media, herd immunity wasn't politically viable...

 

Thanks @StillB & I mean that sincerely... I'm at my whits end & just 'jiving', speculating, hypothesizing & doing some 'Red neck' forgetfulness shots here... wish U could join in.

 

Never mind that we don't know if herd immunity even applies. Tonight one EMT who has it said she is more worried about getting it a second time... because it is worse the second time you get it.

 

In fairness, some of what you suggest is true. We've all heard that we need to flatten the curve. If you look at the curves you see that in the end they still predict the same number of infections overall but the goal now is to slow the spread so that the health systems can handle the cases and also limit exposure to the most vulnerable. The US will peak over the next few weeks and then the number of new cases will decline. If we continue to be vigilant after that it will give time for vaccines and cures to be developed before it rears it's ugly head again. Take H1N1, do you realize that flu vaccines you get today still include it over a decade later? It's still out there but in much more manageable numbers. This too shall pass but let's keep the numbers of bodies down.

 

about the same number will get infected either way, just one way our medical system will be less overloaded....

the elderly have a better chance of survival if the medical system is avail for them at the time they need it (same with any of us)

 

now in the next weeks, our essential workers may have it, then we may have new problems - cause no business will want them working with symptoms, even if mild

 

What about the problem when essential people simply demand greater rewards for the risks they must take? Or worse, decide the isn't worth it?

 

they should definitely be getting more, hopefully their businesses reward them well, but sadly many won't unless required too, time to raise the min wage

 

It's not minimum wage that's the problem, but why stop there? What's your life worth? Should theirs be any less for the added risk they take?

 

This is the crux of it. Right now in the most overloaded nations - Italy, France, UK, Spain & US for example, there are people dying who would live if they were in another country with the same standard of healthcare but free beds or respirators. There are people who aren't getting treatment, or aren't getting adequate treatment simply because the resources aren't there. I suspect this is one of the reasons the number of deaths in some of those places has been persistently high, even as infections drop.

If we strive to avoid this situation, or at least making it last for the shortest time possible, we will save lives, not just COVID-19 patients, but others. Anyone who has ever been in hospital with a life threatening condition or knows someone who has should be supportive of measures that prevent overload.

 

What's the shortest time possible? Does that fall within sustainable limits? Otherwise this was a bigger disaster than we started with...

 

Once the cases are well on the down slope of the curve restrictions will be lightened. What should be remembered by those who worry most about the economy the death of millions of Americans would also have had a devastating effect on the economy. In the long run it's best for the American psyche to have lived through it together than to die from it in masses. The economy will bounce back.

 

The shortest time possible is the shortest time possible. Sorry, it takes as long as it takes. Those nations that implemented lockdown early & fairly hard are seeing positive results. The disaster of several hundred thousand dead Americans & the nation's medical resources sucked up dealing with sick people is bigger than whatever you think the alternative is.

 

That's where you are wrong. The alternative is we lose way more when sustainability ends. We can't continue on this path for months on end. We know any vaccine in over a year out...

 

You assume it's a curve and not a wave. It only takes a few people to start the cycle again until there is a vaccine...

 

I'm basing it on how viruses have always acted as far as epidemiologists say. Once 1% of a population is infected the spread slows. That's how they come up with the bell curves we've seen everywhere. Note that they predict the peak to be in just over two weeks, if you do the math at that point under current increases the will be around 2.5 -3 million infected. ie about 1%
As that rate drops and the hospitals start to clear up space again fewer restrictions will need to be in place. You'll see movement restrictions lifting by the end of the month. Eventually a vaccine will be developed and then it'll be like the flu and the restrictions become the same. Until the vaccine is ready though people at risk still need to maintain some protections.