Will The Donald be treated fairly by the establishment?

That is quite incorrect. A new poll finds that just 5 percent of voters are truly “independent” – ideologically centrist and unaffiliated with either political party.

http://republic3-0.com/myth-independent-voter-stefan-hankin/

 

haha!!!

that only looks at Federal prisons.

most criminals are in State prisons.

there is also research saying illegals have a lower crime rate than legal immigrants and native-born Americans.

http://immigrationpolicy.org/special-reports/criminalization-immigration-united-states

 

You are either coinfused or you did not read the whole article.

The Facts

Per the GAO, “as of fiscal 2009, the total alien – non-U.S.-citizen – population was about 25.3 million, including about 10.8 million aliens without lawful immigration status.”

Since the population of the U.S. was about 306.8 million in 2009, non-citizens comprised 8.25% of the population and illegal aliens about 3.52%. (Recall that they represented 25% of the federal prison population then, and almost 39% in 2013.)

How many crimes did they commit? Almost three million. Here they are.



Now here is where the data get dicey: how do we convert these numbers to rates so that we can compare illegal aliens and non-citizens to other groups, such as U.S. citizens or inhabitants? We have to look at how the GAO determined those estimates.

“To determine the type of offenses for which criminal aliens were convicted, we analyzed data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission on federal convictions of criminal aliens from fiscal years 2003 through 2009 and conviction data from five states – Arizona, California, Florida, New York, and Texas – from fiscal years 2005 through 2008.”

So now we have an apples and oranges problem. The federal data cover seven years and all non-citizens. The state and local data cover four years and illegal aliens only (and only those reported via SCAAP).

Let’s take homicide as an example. The GAO estimates “criminal aliens” were arrested, convicted and incarcerated for 25,064 homicides. If non-citizens committed them over seven years, the annual rate would be 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens. If illegal aliens committed them over four years, the annual rate would be 58.0 per 100,000 illegal aliens. Either way you compute, those are high rates.

By comparison, the FBI reports the murder rates for the entire U.S. from 2003 through 2009 varied from 5.0 to 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants for an average rate of 5.5. To be clear, 5.5 is much lower than either 14.2 or 58.0.

Or look at the total number of homicides in those years. Per the FBI, there were 67,642 murders in the U.S. from 2005 through 2008, and 115,717 from 2003 through 2009. Per the GAO, criminal aliens committed 25,064 of them. That means they committed 22% to 37% of all murders in the U.S., while being only 3.52% to 8.25% of the population.

Conclusion: criminal and illegal aliens commit murder at much higher rates than all inhabitants of the U.S. – at least 3 to 10 times higher.

And I believe these are low-end estimates. For one, murder is almost always handled at the state and local level, not the federal level. So the GAO’s homicide data are skewed toward the state and local data, which cover fewer years (four) and a smaller population (illegals only). The Washington Post states that “Federal prisoners made up 10 percent of the total incarcerated populations in the United States in 2013.”

OK, let’s assume that 90% of the crimes listed by the GAO (other than immigration itself) were committed by SCAAP persons in state and local institutions. That would mean illegal aliens committed 22,558 murders over four years. That is a rate of 5,639 per year, or over 15 per day. (For reference, Rep. Steve King reported a figure of 12 per day. A sheriffs’ association is reported to estimate it at 25 per day. I don’t know how reliable these values are, but they are not totally out of line with the GAO’s data.)

That would give a murder rate for illegal aliens of 52 per 100,000 (5,639 in a population of 10.8 million) – about 10 times that of U.S. citizens.

Here are the numbers of crimes per day committed by illegal aliens in just a few crime categories, based on those GAO numbers and the 90% figure for SCAAP persons over four years.

Kidnappings: 9
Murders: 15
Sex offenses: 43
Burglaries: 71
Assaults: 131
(You may try to compare those numbers to the FBI’s numbers for all crimes, but the categories do not match except for murder/homicide. That is part of what makes this analysis so frustrating, and ripe for cherry-picking by pro-immigrant groups.)

Also, the criminal alien numbers came from those arrested, convicted and incarcerated for these crimes, and reported as such via SCAAP. Yet the FBI numbers include all crimes, solved or not, convictions or not. How many illegal aliens committed murder or other crimes in the U.S. without getting caught and convicted of them?

As difficult as it is to interpret the little data there is on the subject of criminal aliens, the most reliable and recent data are for fiscal year 2009. That leaves us with virtually all of the Obama administration not accounted for. And the most transparent administration in history, the one that killed the U.S. Statistical Abstract and doctors global temperature data every month, is not very transparent with data. (For fun, explain this Federal Reserve web site, which shows that data series on health insurance coverage rates were discontinued just as Obamacare started taking effect.)

So whether things have gotten better or worse in the last six years regarding crimes committed by illegal aliens, we can do little better than guess. But here is some more information from the GAO to aid your guessing.

“Since 2012, there has been a rapid increase in the number of UAC [Unaccompanied Children] apprehended at the U.S.-Mexican border. According to DHS’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of UAC from any country apprehended at the U.S.-Mexican border climbed from more than 24,000 in fiscal year 2012 to nearly 39,000 in fiscal year 2013, and to nearly 69,000 in fiscal year 2014.”

That’s a 187% increase in two years.


The Washington Post stated:

“Trump’s repeated statements about immigrants and crime underscore a common public perception that crime is correlated with immigration, especially illegal immigration. But that is a misperception; no solid data support it, and the data that do exist negate it.”

But the GAO’s numbers do support that perception. Namely that illegals and non-citizens make up 3% and 8% of the population, respectively, but commit at least 22% to 37% of the murders. Illegals likely commit murder at about 10 times the rate of all U.S. inhabitants.

 

funny, as the illegal aliens went from 3 million to 11 million, crime plummitted in the USA.

how about that?

 

liberal study unintentionally reveals nationwide illegal alien crime spree

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/23/liberal-study-unintentionally-reveals-nationwide-illegal-alien-crime-spree/

 

Breitbart.com

worth less than spit

 

Doubt it. There's far too much time for him to say something really stupid.

 

If one follows these things which I do and have since I first became interested in politics watching the 1956 Republican and Democratic conventions on TV. Gallup's numbers are correct, but they can be broke down further which is always wise as you pointed out. Historical figures show those of the electorate who identify/affiliate with a political party vote for their party's candidate 90% or sometimes a bit higher. So Republicans can count on at least 90% of their 23% of the electorate and Democrats 90% of their 28% of the electorate. Now in certain polls that 46% of the electorate who identified/affiliated as independents, can be broken down into lean Democrat and lean Republican. Once again history shows that approximatly 75% give or take will vote for the candidate of the party then lean to. Of the 46% of the electorate who are independents, 18% lean Republican and 19% lean Democratic. That leaves as I call them 10% of the electorate that are true/pure independents with no leans.

It is also interesting to note that since 2004, those who call themselves independents has risen from 30% to 46%. That is the disgust factor with both parties. Republicans back in 2004 made up 33% of the electorate and democrats 35% which as of 12 July 2015 those numbers stand at 23% for Republicans and 28% for democrats. As for Americans as a whole 63% look upon the Republican party unfavorably and 59% view the Democratic party unfavorably. In other words, to the majority of Americans, both parties suck.

This is why the number of independents has risen from 30 to 46%. Even so many of those who left the party, at least now unwilling to admit they belong to either party do still vote most of the time for the party they once identified with. They just do not want to admit in public or to pollsters they do indeed affiliate or identify with one or the other party.

 

Trump likes to hear himself talk.. and now he's hired PNAC Zionist John Bolton who also wants the US in a war with Syria and Iran..

I have always thought Trump was creepy.. Evidently he stalked Princess Diana .. wanting her as a trophy wife... and she thought he was creepy too.

 

A total Uncle Creepy type. The hair is a dead giveaway there, the famous fake combover. Worth 8 billions and too cheap to buy a hairpiece that can't readily be seen as one....from Space

 

Exactly...........

 

This is so true! We should've left Saddam in charge! He kept an iron fist on Iraq and kept the religious Muslim radicals in check! So what if his sons raped random girls, saving those girls WASN'T WORTH the billion$ $pent and the Americans killed or injured.

 

Great post!

I think this whole nonsense about the rise of independent voters is one of those themes the beltway media adopts as conventional wisdom.

This was expecially obvious during the tea party fad of a few years ago. Many, of not most, tea partiers angry asserted that they were independents. Yet 95% of them voted Republican.

Your article makes the note that 37% of all people who label themselves as independents do so because they feel their respective party isn't radical enough. What does that translate to on election day?

 

He is, but he is doing a great public service calling out the TRUTH, that political donations and PACS are bribes and the politicians that get that money, are then OWNED by the contributors and that jerkoffs like Bush or Rubio are puppets in waiting. And he's credible saying it, having been one of the buyers of politicians himself.

 

Perhaps President Obama is making sure it's a "fair game", because according to the following report, he's protecting all candidates:
President Obama has issued a “stark threat” that should New York billionaire Donald Trump be assassinated, or harmed in any way, any candidates implicated will face immediate arrest.
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1902.htm

 

Victims of Saddam's rule are not just girls his sons raped. The dictatorship he built can be compared with that ones of Hitler and Stalin. People were afraid to critisize him even in the circle of their friends and family, because just a few world would be enouph to get you in jail. Tortures and executions were broadcasted on TV during his time. So it's no wonder that most if not all of Americans who are so deadly tired of the wars America engaged in are actually tired of watching them on TV and reading about them in newspapers.

Most of the veterans and active troopers on the other hand are disapointed about quick withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. Because they know what they did in Iraq and what they continue to do in Aphganistan is important and the price they pay for it is not too high.

 

OK then, let's save the rest of the world, clearly Kim Jung Un is worse than Saddam, maybe worse than Hitler, surely worse than Stalin! So are you ready, let's go after North Korea! Save those poor people from oppression! Let's Roll! Are you in?

 

So ISIS is better? Saddam and his sons could have been "eased" out of the picture with a CIA coup, and I've always wondered why that was.

 

As I don't live in US I can't ask America to do anything. But if one day I discover from the news that American troops are going to kick Kim's ass I will be very happy.

 

ISIS doesn't control all of Iraq. Or even most of Iraq. And Americans are not responsible for its actions. And George Bush has warned that something like that can happen if American troops are withdrawn prematurely.

I've actually seen report that Afghan people are afraid of Americans leaving them and this report was made by no other than Al Jazeera tv-channel. Someone you might not easily suspect of pro-American propaganda.