It seems that greed for resources might inflame a tense situation. The US/Philippines defence pact is going to look mighty dumb if the Philippines military starts to impose itself upon Chinese sovereign territory. It's already clear that the pact is a simple front for regional hegemony by the US of AIPAC. This world-wide interference in other people's business is bound to bite America's ass.
Anyway there could be some serious confrontations in that area in the near future. Let's hope that the Filipinos do not take things into their own hands thinking that the Americans will step in if they start a war with China. As we all know America likes to pick on small unarmed countries not ones who have a nuclear arsenal. Interesting thing I saw yesterday was the Russians and Chinese doing joint naval maneuvers. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/19/opinion/19iht-edbowring.html
bound to bite us? maybe certain country s appreciate the fact that we finance and do much of there dirty work.
Wow! Quite a string of deletions. I'll try with the statement that the Philipines had better not push China too hard, because if we feel they provoked a confrontation with Chinese forces we will leave the Philipines hanging in the wind. On the other hand, the USA cannot afford to give China carte blanche over the whole area, as China would start getting too big for its boots.
A war would never start. Because China would back down. If China will not confront us over Taiwan, what makes you think they will confront us over this? Kicking puppies is fun when the puppies are despots and dictators. No, I don't like fair fights. So you believe China will commit suicide over this? LOL! This is the weakness of pragmatists. They are completely predictable. They will always work in their own material self interest. Committing suicide over resources is not terribly pragmatic now is it? You wont be able to use the resources if you are dead. Why is that interesting?
LOL! You think Russia will commit suicide for China's interests? Russia does not give two craps about China beyond personal gain. If there is nothing in it for them, they will not stick their necks out for China. We've already seen them demonstrate this with Iran. They will will make vague and empty threats, and that is as far as they will go. In fact, their alliance with Iran actually had more substance because they provided Iran with military hardware. I don't think they will even go that far with China.
The Obama administration decided to set up a military base in Australia to contain China's aggressive moves in the South China Sea last year, which sent a clear signal to China. Since then, China has been acting nicer towards its neighbours, alarmed by America's active engagement in the regional affairs which jeorpadises China's regional hegemony. Small Asian powers can always count on the US to resolve any potential disputes with China which tends to flaunt international law due to its ideological incompatibility with the international system.
Right! The Bear would like to see China and the US killing each other for it to pick up the corpses. You are right again. Crafty Russia is expert in fishing in troubled waters. It must be feeling very bored and impatient to be left out of the Great Pacific Game all this while. All in all, China has made the right move to invite Russia into the Game. The US definitely won't like to be bumped out of the way by the Bear.
This whole issue in the South China sea is really nothing more than both sides rattling their sabers. This area in the South China Sea has obviously been under dispute for decades. To be honest, China doesn't have a lot of neighbors in which they don't have territory disputes with. This situation is really nothing out of the norm. There are in fact many nations who lay claim to these islands, and China is only one of them. If China wants to go to war over these islands because of their energy deposits, they would have to deal with Vietnam, Taiwan, The US (because we would likely have to support at least Taiwan), Malaysia, and the Philippines. This is not about the US building or maintaining global hegemony. In fact, the US has nothing to do with these islands nor is it trying to assert itself into the dispute. This is about a group of Asian countries all looking to gain greater economic influence in their own corner of the world. The only interest the US government would have in this dispute, is to maintain stability in the region. Perhaps the US government doesn't want to see China gain these energy deposits. But its really more interested in maintaining order more than anything else.
How did the islands become 'Chinese sovereign territory'...Seems to me they developed a Chinese interest the same time oil might be found there, sort of like the Argentines and the Falklands...
No, those islands have been disputed long before oil was ever discovered there. Perhaps the rhetoric and military activity has been amplified since the discovery, but the truth is, many different countries have been fighting for the rights to claim that territory for a very long time.
I just have to laugh at some of these posts of "China would back down" "China isn't crazy" implying of course that the US wouldn't back down, that we are crazy and we're totally willing to turn the earth black with nukes over who gets to run some islands. Nice guys.
You need to look at a map if you think this is China's sovereign territory. But you carry on supporting the corrupt nationalism of Zhongnanhai's apparatchiks if it makes you feel better. In your denunciation of the corrupt West I hope you get on famously with the flag waiving, foreigner-baiting billionnaires of the CCP! The left used to understand that territorial disputes by corrupt and criminal dictatorships were an excellent means of rallying a nation under nationalist hysteria and defleting people's attention from the failure of national governments to do anything positive for the people. But then the Left also used to rush to eulogize vicious Stalinist dictatorships as well. Plus ca change...
At the very core of this debate is the military position of all of these countries. They pick at each other, use political/economic firepower all they want, but when push comes to shove it comes down to who can actually enforce their will in the South China Sea. More than 1.5 trillion dollars in U.S. trade goes through the South China Sea, and it's an important gateway to the U.S. Navy. When you add in the political alliances, the U.S. is very interested in seeing that stability exists in the region. The Chinese Navy, particularly when operating in the open ocean, is sub-standard to say the least. A single U.S. carrier group could sail into the South China Sea at any time and assert it's will on any and all comers. China isn't going to provoke the U.S. because they know that they ultimately cannot protect their interests in the region. They will pick and prod at their neighbors and use political guile to best position themselves, but they won't escalate into a confrontation with the U.S.
I agree. Despots have no rights, and oppressing them is fun and productive. I admire those who do it. We are more willing to do it than the Chinese are. Thats the point.
That is exactly correct. If we feel threatened, you can expect a psychotic overreation. China knows this, which is why they will never start serious (*)(*)(*)(*) with us. Which is why we are not that concerned with their nukes.
The Chinese once believed they had to accommodate America. That view is over. They now see the relationship as a zero sum game that they will win and we will lose. The whole world sees it that way. Why? America is committing suicide. My Chinese in laws once spoke of America as a paradigm. Now their contempt for this country is not hidden. They have a sense of superiority. That means they will probably make the mistake of over reaching.