Just a video to start this thread off: Peter doubles down on his prediction of the End of #china Even with some pushback from some Naval Officers in this April Webinar, he remains confident. Watch the Opening of the Seminar here... https://youtu.be/argx5kJEh4o And the full Q and A here... https://youtu.be/K7O8h3G4Mh8 So, China has a serious demographic problem thanks to their boneheaded one-child policy, and the lack of a younger population because of it with a massive aging population is arguably likely to lead to the collapse of the regime. Their gender imbalance is also immense with a LOT fewer women than men. Another issue is wage growth, which is shooting up at a rapid pace in China, but their labor efficiency has not gone up all that much, which makes China increasingly less competitive. Peter basically argues that, because of this, there is not going to be a China for very much longer, so we don't really need to fear facing down China militarily or otherwise.
China also has a huge water problem - not enough. That said, there are always people making predictions of one sort or another. I was watching a youtube vid the other day where someone went over the work of an American guy who spent the 80s predicting war with Japan and completely missing the rise of China. There are people now predicting Russia will soon fall apart and others convinced China is about to invade Taiwan. Maybe they will have better luck. I suspect 'big' predictions are correct more by chance than genuine analysis. I'd be happy for him to be right, and there is certainly an argument that China has a LOT more problems under the surface than we readily acknowledge, but I'm not sure that wil lamount to an immediate collapse. We will see.
One thing that I think can safely be said about China is that a lot of us in the west are far too worried about it. China lacks the sort of robust economic and political systems that we take for granted. They're a political bubble preparing to burst, to use an economic analogy, because they lack good fundamentals. Their growth has been largely artificial and they don't have the kind of leadership that can weather a crisis. In fact, it seems rather to be creating crises for itself.
"Feel good" predictions can trigger a degree of acceptance from emotional rather than logical/factual agreement. This observer of the passing parade is not ready to count China out in a year's time. Regards, stay safe 'n well 'n remember the Big 5.
they been predicting fall of china for like what 30 years. japan have worst demographic problem compare to china, we didn't see them falling. did NK fall? or saudi fall, nope, and they have worst government compare to china.
Peter has some interesting arguments and insight, but China is not going away anytime soon. In fact as soon as they develop their technology approaching the level of the US, the US military will be helpless to stop them. They have stolen lots of US technology (buying up US companies just to extract their technology, or sending in spies to take technology) and are making rapid technological advancements of their own. Imagine Russia but with 10 times the population. China is also sitting on top of a huge amount of cash and investments from all those years of the US buying things from China. China could trigger economic disaster in the US if it sold off all the US Treasury debt it owns, forcing the US to find some way of paying, or permanently ruining the US credit rating, which would send interest rates sky high. Imagine the US trying to engage in an all out war but being unable to borrow any money.
China has all sorts of problems. But that usually makes a country more likely to look for a war, not less. I certainly wont mind being wrong tho.
Things may look different from the other side of the Pacific. From this side China looks like a very big, increasingly angry nation with expansive territorial claims and a peacetime military buildup that belongs in the 1930s. It is also buying its way to influence in a lot of small nations very, very close to mine. That isn't great for the US either. We have to assume China is as dangerous as it looks. The danger of underestimating is far worse than of overestimating.
KMT was corrupt to the bone back then, just like previous afahan govt. they didn't have support of the peasant, kmt army morale was low despite having western military. you can find similarity between KMT and previous afahan govert. kmt chiang kai shek was also a dictator, and create the longest marshall law in history after wwii, from 60s to 80s in taiwan.
I agree that in terms of our national policies toward China, at least, have to treat them as a menace and potential threat. It is important for limiting their expansion and bolstering regional opposition. But I feel that people personally make China more of a bogeyman than it really is as well, excessively fearing their economic growth and overestimating their long-term prospects. They certainly do seem to be facing a real demographic challenge and their Communist leadership is far from ideal for managing a large economy and growing problems long-term.