Electoral Map: Not Good News for Obama

The Real Clear Politics map looks pretty reasonable to me. It shows Obama with 221 likely or leaning electoral votes and Romney with 170. I think if either candidate wins any of the states that are listed as leaning to the other that candidate would be virtually certain to win. The 147 toss up votes on the map are AZ,CO,FL,IA,MI,MO,NV,NH,NC,OH,VA, & WI. I think that AZ,MO,NC definitely lean towards Romney but by less than the states Real Clear Politics list as leaning to him. I think that MI,VA,WI definitely lean towards Obama just like AZ,MO,NC lean towards Romney. My own judgment is that CO & NV lean very slightly towars Obama but by very close margin. FL is probably in this category for Romney. I also think the 1 electoral vote in NE which Obama won in 2008 leans to Romney. This leaves IA,NH, & OH as true tossups. If I allocate the votes this way the count is Obama 275 Romney 235, True tossup 28. If CO,NV & FL are allocated as tossups the count is Obama 260 Romny 206, Tossup 72. If I had to give a map with no tossups I would allocate IA,NH & OH to Obama for a result of Obama 303-Romney 235.

The last time I checked intrade Obama was a 52.7-47.3 favorite to win (I don't participate in this market as I don't think it right to bet on elections). I think Obama is a definite favorite and my estimate is that he is about a 60-40 favorite as of now.

 

this thread would be good news if it said ELECTORAL MAP,NOT GOOD FOR OBAMA "OR" ROMNEY since nothing will change with establishment head Romney in there who is just another black Obama.

 

This is one of the best posts I've seen here. Logic and reason support by facts and strong sources. I agree with you completely but would add that Obama WAS trading at 57+ until Wisconsin and opening his fat mouth about the public sector being fine. Plus every major corporation and millionaire has been stepping up to buy a piece of Romney lately. Finally, Romney has not stepped on his tongue lately.
It will be EXTREMELY close.
I think that barring an X-Factor, Obama can recover and take it. As was evidenced with Hillary (no teleprompter), he does extremely well in debates and that was an area in which Romney suffered most during the primaries.
I think Obama will probably hold but the good news for the GOP is they'll keep the house and probably split or get an edge in the senate.

 

Last time I checked the Red, Blue and undecided states, Obama starts with 247, Romney 206 - 270 needed to win. Advantage goes to the Democrats. But it is looking like WI will go Red. Romney needs to win a bunch of undecided states - doable but not a slam dunk. Still a long ways till November.

Romney desperately needs Ron Paul's blessing. Obama desperately needs to catch a break.

[video=youtube;a4nvhAZ0vr0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4nvhAZ0vr0[/video]

 

The 2012 Election will not be determined by the legitimate vote of honest, legally registered voters, but rather by how much election fraud the newly renamed and Obama Administration federally funded ACORN can create in FRAUD VOTE in swing states.

This embarrassment to democracy will turn on how willing we are to stand up to “you’re a RACIST” retorts when challenging blatant voter fraud.

In a previous election, someone coined the phrase;” It’s the Economy Stupid!”

Well, in 2012, “It is the FRAUD VOTE Stupid!”

It is as simple as that…

 

According to this map, Obama is doing fine.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

 

Never saw or heard of that site before. I think Obama will barely eek it out because he hasn't done any real hardcore campaigning yet and people forget how strong he was debating against Hillary. It's still anyone's game though.

 

I'd think this was sort of a no-brainer. The honeymoon has long passed, as well as the national attitude toward President Bush. By some miracle, the economy didn't turn around in 4 years... *shrugs*

 

If I'm looking at things correctly, it's June. You should probably look to see what the washington post says in November. Just sayin and all

 

Well, yes, that map is as of today. It's been very accurate in predicting local and state races and ballot issues. But November is a long way off in political time. The thing is, nearly all the electoral votes are already in the bank. It's really a very small election. A few states. And right now Obama leads in more than Romnet does, so as of today he would win. November? Who knows. I don't care either way.

 

I don't know what that map showed when you posted it, but it is funny that 80 electors were lost by Obama and picked up by Romney recently.

EVC stands at 285 Obama and 253 Romney as of this post. Race is tightening up already.

 

Obama makes gains in most recent Electoral College map projection

President Obama has gained a larger lead in the most recent Electoral College map projection, winning with 314 electoral votes compared to 224 for Mitt Romney. The last update gave Obama with 285 votes compared to Romney 253 votes. The change entirely is attributed to a projected victory for President Obama in Florida. The state is very close, but the most recent poll shows President Obama up by four points, perhaps a reflection on his administration’s most recent immigration directive.

More at link:

http://www.examiner.com/article/oba...electoral-college-map-projection?CID=obinsite

 

So why do you conservative always want to restrict freedom and representation?
Why the moves to restrict voting?

 

Wasn't that long ago that the WaPo,NYTimes,LATimes,Chicago Tribune etc.etc. didn't have to worry about being challenged too much. The WaPo must've been worried about their market share in June 2011. A year later,they've been shown to be so wrong then. They should be worried about their market share/declining readership.

 

You mean restricting it to citizens? Why do Democrats want to allow non citizens to vote?

 

A 90 year old WWII veteran was one of those purged from Florida's voting rolls. He was a citizen.

Coincidentally, he's also a Democrat. In a state ran by Republicans. In an election year.

Hm.

 

He wasn't purged, just asked to provide proof of citizenship. He will still vote. Much todo about nothing.

 

And you see no problem with asking a 91 year old WWII veteran to "prove" his citizenship?

He served this country and put his life on the line in what was perhaps our darkest need, and he has to PROVE his citizenship?

 

You see no real problem with the DOJ not giving the States the list of illegal aliens they have, which they are supposed to do by law which would be the quickest way to identify illegal voters?

 

Of course I see a problem with it. It sucks. What's your point?

 

You can include Virginia as well. The polling done the other day showed him 8 points ahead, but it turns out of those polled, more than half weren't registered voters or unsure if they would vote. The Pollsters are wording the polls to their advantage and squewing the polls themselves.

 

I had to provide proof of my citizenship to get a job answering phones.

I had to provide proof of my age to buy a beer, even though I am almost all grey and balding.

I had to provide proof of my residency to buy a fishing license at in-state rates.

It was not hard to accomplish any of these proofs, if fact, it has always been routine. And the issue at hand; low level employment, mild-alchohol, wild-game rights, where all far, far less important than the soverign franchise.

Only those intending to fraud the vote, object to Voter ID Laws.

Where there is smoke, there is fire...

 

That is at best ignorant, and at worst a flat-out lie.

 

Indiana will go Republican. There are a LOT of pissed off working class people in Pennsylvania. What makes you so sure it will go Democratic???????

 

I like the latest thing I heard. In just 24 hours after the Obamacare Ruling.....Romney collected $4.5 million in donations. Here's the good part: the Obama campaign refuses to announce how much they collected during that same time period.

But hey....not to worry Dems. George Clooney has headed overseas to his "Italian villa" to collect money for Obama. Ahhhh......those nasty 1%ers.
http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/06/29/2893080/clooney-to-raise-money-for-obama.html