Going into the GA-06 race, Ossoff is leading in all polling

I'm not sure I'd put much confidence in polls just yet. Particularly one with so few respondents. Polling methodology has been dismal for a number of years now. No doubt Ossoff might win, but if that doesn't happen it shouldn't surprise anyone...

 

So, fresh polling coming in, showing the race tightening considerable, or maybe not:

SUSA, conducted 6/07-6/11, released 6/12, 503 LV und AV (early voters), MoE = +/-4.5

SurveyUSA Election Poll #23557

Ossoff (D) 47
Handel (R) 47
TIE

The poll still shows Handel getting 12% of the black vote, highly unlikely. It also shows that she is suddenly ahead in the 50-64 age group. Possible, but could be a fluctuation. The spread in the white vote remains unchanged. This poll, however, represents a 7 point shift toward Handel.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opinion Saavy, conducted conducted 6/14-6/15, released 6/16, 537 LV, MoE = +/-4.2
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uplo ... .16.17.pdf

Ossoff (D) 49.7
Handel (R) 49.4
Ossoff +0.3

As with all other polls, Ossoff has tromped in the early vote and banked quite a bit, but Handel is leading in the expected vote on Tuesday.
It should be noted that this poll regresses to former days: 75% of respondents were landline respondents, only 25% were cell-phone respondents, pretty much a mirror image of most polling these days. The poll also reflects White vote 85.1% / Black vote 8.9% / Latino Vote 2.0% but the actual demographics of GA-06 are: White 70.8% / Black 13.4% / Latino 13.4%, so it is a fair statement to say that minorities are grossly underrepresented in this poll, which is actually good news for Ossoff.

Georgia's 6th congressional district - Wikipedia

It also shows the partisan breakdown at R 39.8 / D 32.0 / I 30.0, R +7.8, which is entirely plausible but not provable as GA does not collect or release VR data by party affiliation. However, it is in-line with the current Cook PVI.

The poll also shows Trump fav/unfav at 49.6 approv / 50.0 disapprove, and that in a once rock-solid R CD (Cook PVI = R +

All those things being said, Opinion Savvy's polling of the primaries in 2016 was very accurate at the state level. How accurate it is for just one CD is anyone's guess. Again, alone the fact that Ossoff is still (ever so slightly) ahead at this late point in the game, and with a pollster that is Right-leaning, says alot.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

But this one is interesting:

Trafalgar Group (R), conducted 6/10-6/13, released 6/16, 1,100 LV, MoE = +/-2.9
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitQkVYeExaaV9PczQ/view

Ossoff (D) 50.22
Handel (R) 47.46
Ossoff +2.76 (+3)

In the Trafalgar Data, Handel is leading in the Senior Vote (exact age is not mentioned) and Ossoff is leading in the non-Senior Vote (again, no exact age is mention), but the margins in both cases are smaller than we have been seeing in other polls. Among early voters, it's Ossoff +13 and among expected election day voters, it's Handel +3.5. The Handel margin is smaller than we have seen in other polls. I will remind that this poll is from an accredited Rebublican Pollster and I am mentioning more about Trafalgar group because it was just about the only pollster right before election day 2016 that showed Trump ahead in MI, WI, PA and FL. The poll also called 60,000 households but only got a response rate of about 3%. That is sad but no reflection on this pollster in particular. Pollsters all over are having trouble getting people to answer questions.


THE LONG AND SHORT of this update is that the race has likely tightened and instead of cherry picking, I still, as I have always done, let the numbers stand for themselves. SUSA shows a major shift toward Handel. Opinion Savvvy also shows a nail-biter. But the true Republican pollster out there shows an Ossoff +3 lead. All polling is unified over the data that Ossoff has swept the early vote, by between +13 and +16. All polling is unified that Handel is expected to win the election day vote, so the real decider is election day GOTV for Ossoff. If he can keep Handel's election day margin down, then he will win. If not, she may very well win. But statistically, this late in the race, it is still: Advantage Ossoff.

-Stat

 

I just want to remind: we are talking about a congressional district that was once an absolute rock-solid GOP bastion of strength, where all the Democrats could hope for would be to put up a sacrificial lamb for the GE. Alone the fact that John Ossoff is holding so very strong, and all the way to the end, speaks for not-so-subtle changes in the electoral landscape of this particular CD, also one that Trump just barely won. It appears to me that it is all about GOTV on election day, now.

 

A statement completely lacking in fact and/or evidence. I am not sure you realize how many 100s of 1000s of Americans participate as poll workers at election time and how your ill-conceived and frankly, very untrue statement impugnes many, many hard working, patriotic Americans who give up their time FOR FREE to make sure that our elections happen.

Your statement may make you feel good, but out here in the real world, where real things happen, your tortured fantasies of millions of illegal aliens somehow getting to vote and get away with it is just plain old BS and disgustingly insulting and every adult in the room knows this. For millions of illegal aliens to have gotten to vote without "detection" would require the well-planned and willing collusion of poll workers from BOTH parties, and at the same time, with the knowledge that such behavior brings a jail sentence of no less than 5 years with it. Why in the world would Republican poll workers have willingly colluded with Democratic poll workers in order to allow this to happen? What kind of absolutely perverted logic can stand behind such a ridiculous and, as already noted, factless statement?

SHAME ON YOU for speaking untruths.

 

Actually, that is not really factually true at all...

 

The last statement is patently false. Densely populated areas quite obviously do not represent a "tiny portion" of the country. In fact, densely populated areas represent the MAJORITY of the population. I think you are, regrettably, mistaking geography for population density. What a shame.

 

I guess if you are a democrat you may honestly believe that illegal aliens to not vote in our elections because your liberal news media tells you they don't

but that defies common sense

 

Trump won more states than hillary did.

States with densely populated cities

Hillary won california and new york which are overwhelmingly liberal

But the nation as a whole prefered trump

 

I live in the district. Handel is is not at all liked and has a long history to attack. Ossoff has no history and a massive influx of party money from out of state. This election is really showing the power of money in elections as I see 10 Ossoff commercials for every Handel one. On the other hand, I see a lot more people on street corners holding signs for Handel by probably 20-1.

A new commercial just dropped for Handel though thats very good, I would link it but I dont see it on youtube. If Ossoff people show up, he will win. Despite the polls, if Handel can get her people to turn out, she will win.

Side note, Ossoff could move to NY and run as a republican. His support is MUCH further left than his stated positions are. I still havent decided who I am voting for. I may go Ossoff just to see if he stays centric. If he does, he may stick around for a long time as this area is slowly drifting blue. If he takes a hard left turn to fall in line with the party, he will be voted out in 2018.

 

Interesting Analysis

 

no.

Trump just barely pulled Michigan (+0.12), Wisconsin (+0.71) and Pennsylvania (+0.71) over the line. He took Florida by +1.7 (a pretty decent win)

Clinton still won nationally by +2.09%. Trump eeked out a inside-straight in the EC, that's all. the states where Hillary won, combined, 42.40% of the entire population. The states that were extremely close account for 15.20%. This means that the states that Trump won solidly are also 42.40%.

So no, the nation as a whole did not really prefer him. He pulled a statistically almost impossible inside straight in the EC. Which of course won him the election.

 

Again you have provided no real facts, no data at all to back up your ridiculous claim.

 

Here's my take, if the Republicans come out to vote handle will win by 3 pts. Polls are untrust

Do you believe that the 'white powder envelope' mailed to Handel will have any effect on the election? http://investmentwatchblog.com/resi...vulgar-threatening-letters-with-white-powder/

 

Whats the point of having elections if democats only respect the results when their side wins?

Trump beat hillary and is the legimate president

 

23% of all of Clinton's individual votes and 44% of her electoral votes came from just 3 states (NY, Cali, Illinois). The nation as a whole, more soundly rejected her, which was why Trump won.

 

Of course that high percentage came from those three states, because they are ENORMOUS states in terms of population.
What part of the term "population DENSITY" do you not understand?

It is not land mass that determines the majority. It is the population.

Alone, the population of Los Angeles is equal to the total populations of the 11 or 12 smallest states in the Union put together.

Now, take a minute and think about that...

 

In the case of the big blue cities they could not exist for long without the rest of the country to feed them and provide other necessities

 

I live 25 miles south of Atlanta, that district is north of Atlanta. But two things stick out. I seen a bunch of Ossoff commercials and he never mentions or they never mention he is a Democrat. Also there has been close to 40 million dollars spent on this one congressional district race. I find that obscene as almost all the money has come from out of state. The Democrats have spent about twice as much as the Republicans. There is nothing normal about this race. Nothing that I think can be used as an indicator for next years midterms.

I have said the the folks of the 6th districts has become pawns to the moneyed folks trying to buy this election. I think most folks regardless of who wins will be happy as all get out when its over. All that money money has made the Atlanta TV and radio stations very happy. But not us who had to put up with all that advertising. This whole runoff has been obscene for anyone living close to Atlanta. Just get this thing over with and in the books and get those dang commercials off TV and the Radio.

 

Liberals are positively wetting their pants in excitement because they think Ossoff will win a seat from a republican

But if he wins he better be the most conservative democrat in captivity or he won't be there for long

 

Perhaps, or perhaps not. I was hoping to hear from you sometime about this. Hope you are well and prospering.

-STat

 

Actually, once again, the facts stand firmly against you. Without the revenues of the big cities, which SUBSIDIZE farming all over, our farmers would go belly up. The blue states are generally the giver states in terms of tax revenue. The red states tend to be the taker states. Good luck to you in actually coming up with real, proven data for your wild, unfounded, unproven assumptions.

 

They can't vote when polling officials mysteriously lose 40,000 registration forms from mostly students, and minorities. These are criminal acts, and it proves that the Right has to cheat in order to win. These folks should be investigated yesterday; http://www.gregpalast.com/palast-msnbc-joy-voter-suppression-accusations-gop-persist/ This criminal act will decide the sixth district.

 

Osoff would be ahead even more if polling officials hadn't lost 40,000 voter registration forms from mostly students and folks of color; http://www.gregpalast.com/palast-msnbc-joy-voter-suppression-accusations-gop-persist/ This is criminal. Plain and simple. Losing those registration forms, (cough cough), could be the deciding factor. Can you imagine that? 40,000 lost voter registration forms that were already filled out, and now they are gone. Time for these folks to go to jail.

 

I don't think so either.

 

Not so fast. Republicans can easily win by stealing 40,000 filled out voter registration forms and throwing them in the trash. Where are they;http://www.gregpalast.com/palast-msnbc-joy-voter-suppression-accusations-gop-persist/?