Greece: Even crazier than we thought.

Erdogan has broken diplomatic relations with just about all of his neighbors, so what he says one day might not be what he will say the next. According to one site, Tsipras told him that he will not speak to him until Turkey takes away the 'cassus belli' regarding the Aegean. Total Oil tried to solve the problem a few years ago by having them share the profits of any oil that it might find. Greece agreed, even though the sea legally belongs to Greece, but Turkey refused.

Turkey refuses to accept the Lausanne Treaty signed by Attaturk in regard to the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean and if Greece does search for oil then Turkey consider's it a cause for war. Vladimir Putin being ever the peace maker, offered to send Russia's gas into Turkey up to the Greek border, that way he would not only solve his problems with the EU, but both countries would become a gas hub for Europe.

For two decades Turkey has done everything possible to hurt Greece's economy, from setting forest fires during its dry season, to crashing old oil tankers outside of Greek resorts, so rather than having a pipe feeding Europe through Greece, and having Greece profit from it, Erdogan wants a facility in Turkey that can store the gas, and then ship it throughout the world.

Russia's offer to Turkey was generous, but Erdogan and his side kick Devotoglu have their own Ottoman ambitions about rebuilding their empire, so I guess it's all or nothing to them. Since the Russian contracts for gas with the EU will end in 2019, and pipes will be ready by then for the gas to go to China, things have to get settled and fast..

 

i can do this to if i drink enough

 

I fear these folk are true believers in 'the free lunch', the Greek equivalent of the Obama 'if I say it it must be true' school of economics...They want enough cash to pay all the governments promises but do not want to use their money for the effort.

 

Nobody wants a free lunch (except the preceding governments who took on the debt on behalf of the Greek people, who saw little benefit.) Six years of massive poverty and reduction of services, where more and more of the money goes to paying interest, only to see the debt rise, has brought Greece to this point..Should lenders who make bad loans not share blame here?

 

Germany had a racket there. The first large sum Greece received from the IMF instead of going to buy drugs for the people, as was intended, went right back to Germany to buy submarines because of the Turkish threat. But Germany wasn't the only nation who gained from the Turkish threats, France did as well, that's why Nato never bothered to clamp down on Turkey.

Greece was also forced to turn down a generous offer from Russia to buy a utility company, and made to settle for less than half the price from a hostile nation by the US. Russia was also going to supply Greece with major arms, and that was stopped again because of the sanctions.

Anyway this doesn't excuse Greece for falling into debt, nor the politicians for allowing it to happen.

 

This analysis seems cogent.

" ...One way to think about the demands of the newly elected Greek government is that it wants a reduction in the size of that contribution. Nobody is talking about Greece spending more than it takes in; all that might be on the table would be spending less on interest and more on things like health care and aid to the destitute. And doing so would have the side effect of greatly reducing Greece’s 25 percent rate of unemployment.

But doesn’t Greece have an obligation to pay the debts its own government chose to run up? That’s where the moralizing comes in.

It’s true that Greece (or more precisely the center-right government that ruled the nation from 2004-9) voluntarily borrowed vast sums. It’s also true, however, that banks in Germany and elsewhere voluntarily lent Greece all that money. We would ordinarily expect both sides of that misjudgment to pay a price. But the private lenders have been largely bailed out (despite a “haircut” on their claims in 2012). Meanwhile, Greece is expected to keep on paying.

Now, the truth is that nobody believes that Greece can fully repay. So why not recognize that reality and reduce the payments to a level that doesn’t impose endless suffering? Is the goal to make Greece an example for other borrowers? If so, how is that consistent with the values of what is supposed to be an association of sovereign, democratic nations? ... "

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/opinion/paul-krugman-europes-greek-test.html?smid=tw-share

 

There's some analysis coming out of leftist publications that doesn't seem to acknowledge all of the facts, such as how Greece receives its bailout money in installments. Whether it's able to pay off its prior agreement is Greece's problem and if it doesn't all work out, the aid money stops coming in, it's not like they've already received it all.

 

I have to ask...what does work? When one is dealing with a nation that is bound by promises (spending) to its populace that far exceeds its revenues, essentially living on loans, and is further bound by ties to the Euro zone who, oddly enough, understand they cannot continue to loan money that will never be paid back. Greece is a welfare state, not in the traditional meaning for governments but instead as in the one applied to individuals who live only through the safety net.

If they renounce the debts, the western money source dies. If they suck up to Russia or China, then they need to receive billions in aid to keep the money promised to the populace coming. If they get cut off by the west, then 'austerity' becomes an unavoidable end...simply printing worthless money won't hack it after a few months and folk discover their wheelbarrow full of funny money won't buy the days gyro.

What can they do that does not have Greece living closer to their means?

 

One cannot simply borrow money to pay for already borrowed money forever. If I was Greece, I'd try to negotiate the elimination of interest payments and growth in exchange for the evil 'austerity' (living closer to ones means).

 

Austerity is driven by ideology not pragmatism, which is predicated on the bailing out of large swaths of the banking sector. Greece was a recipient of bad lending in which loans were granted in the certain knowledge that they could not possibly be afforded and therefore repaid.

Due to corrupt networks of elite collusion embracing both government and private sector, much of this money was simply siphoned out of the country into overseas accounts in London and Cyprus.

The situation in Greece is akin to 1% of the population living a life of luxury in a mansion for free with the remaining 99% living in shacks behind it who are paying the mortgage.

Syriza’s victory was a welcome corrective to the neoliberal narrative in which political parties and media are otherwise fated to be in the pocket of the corporations. I hope that they negotiate hard and force the banks to take a huge haircut on Greek sovereign debt.

I acknowledge their commitment to social justice and I'm sure they will be realistic with both themselves and their people on the amount of blood, sweat and tears that is going to need to go in to building a productive Greek economy.

An example of Keynesian stimulus is much needed by the rest of Europe.

 

Which means the banks lose their interest BUT Greece, who took the money and wasted it, pays back what they owe...

 

As I inferred, the the vast majority of the Greek people have suffered enough through austerity as a consequence of the shenanigans that had nothing to do with them. The newly elected anti-austerity government cannot ignore the people who voted them into power and therefore some compromises are going to have to be struck in order to provide the foundations for the building of a productive Greek economy.

 

Bull to your inference...The politicians took their easily borrowed money and used it to buy votes with promises they could not meet unless they continued to borrow more. The votes were bought with goodies, inflated salaries and retirement schemes that went directly to the very people you pretend are blameless. If the citizens had refused the largess, then I would agree with you but instead they happily took every dime, goodie, and perk offered in exchange for political power.

They cannot buy prosperity with other folks money

 

Due to corrupt networks of elite collusion embracing both government and private sector, much of this money was simply siphoned out of the country into overseas accounts in London and Cyprus.

The situation in Greece is akin to 1% of the population living a life of luxury in a mansion for free with the remaining 99% living in shacks behind it who are paying the mortgage.

 

Greeks are the world's biggest tax dodgers, and the EU thought they could make them pay taxes. They even sent them tax collectors from Brussels so they wouldn't be bribed. Well as far as I can tell, the Greek money is still sitting in the Swiss banks. ..and of course it's the poor that suffer.

When the first tranche from the IMF came, it was to buy drugs for the people, but it went right back to Germany to pay for a submarine because of the Turkish threats in the Aegean. It's a useless situation, and the only hope is for Greece to get out of the Eurozone, and go back to the drachma. Russia and China are willing to help, that is if the EU will allow it. Maybe they should just get out all together.

Frankly I'm curious to see what Tsipras is going to do?

 

Again bull....the Greek public sector standard of living was very good indeed as was the retirement program. Today's 'austerity' is simply the folk who used to get goodies taking a ht as the flow of largess bought with borrowed money dried up. The pretense that the people who elected all those politicians and receivd all those goodies are faultless victims is political BS.

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How is there 'hope' when someone other than the Greeks have to pay for the promises?

 

Anyone who claims that the Greek public sector standard of living was good is talking out of their arse.

 

Greece's new spin is that they can end "debt addiction" by raising spending. By going straight to countries like France and Italy, which are currently run by leftists, they're hoping to cause an insurrection within the EU. This seems to excite some European leftists but realistically, all policy changes regarding more spending seem to mean that Germany gives people more money and the Germans are clearly not interested in that.

 

Compromises will be done and as a result Greece will remain in the Euro. You heard it here.

 

the Public sector has been protected from the recession disproportionately. For every 7 private employees who lost their job, only 1 public sector fellow lost his.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/opinion/the-cost-of-protecting-greeces-public-sector.html?_r=0

That was not my 'arse' speaking but the Bible of the left, the NY Times

 

Ok, so you have an ideological agenda. I thought as much.

 

How does simply noting easily verifiable facts discount my conclusions? My agenda on this thread has been to note that the problem is not an 'evil' rich baker/corporation whatever, problem but has the fingerprints of most of the population...they rode the goodie wagon when it was delivering and now want to blame others when they themselves are equally the cause.

My real point on this thread is that the folk calling for an end to austerity have no solution that does not involve other nations keeping the population happy and in goodies.

 

Public sector workers who teach children and cook their meals did not ride any goodie wagon and are not to blame for the criminal activity of others. But good try.

 

Greece: Braver and more sensible than we thought.

It is insane to surrender our wealth and our labor to bankers who give us debt and a police state in return.

 

Public sector employees who are universally convinced their jobs should and must pay far more than the host of poorer folk who pay the bills are most assuredly to blame...27% of the 2009 budget went into pay for the 700,000 Greek public service employees, who on average made almost half again as much as the taxpayers in the private sector.

If we really want to solve the problem, bring public sector pay and benefits into line wit the private sector and see the need for vast borrowing drop like a stone.

So far all I see as being proposed is the Greeks may be planning to change the banks they use for loans from western ones to Russian or Chinese government ones...they still expect to get subsidized for the difference between what they promised folk and what they have actually received in revenues.