How soon will Putin force Assad to step down as Syrian Dictator?

Well....it looks like Putin is going to force this sooner than I thought.

I was thinking that Putin would wait until a new President is in office but it now looks like the Russian economy is failing too fast for Putin to wait that long for U.S. Help and it seems that Putin will force Assad to step down as the Syrian leader probably by as early as April of 2016.

The U.S. and Russia are already discussing the removal of Assad and it's basically a DONE DEAL.

Now the only thing that needs to be worked out is what Russia will get in return as far as U.S. economic help to prevent the total collapse of the Russian economy.

One of the aspects of this deal will probably be a promise by the U.S. to at the very least slow down U.S. Oil Production as the U.S. surpassed Russia to become the worlds largest producer of oil and high U.S. and Canadian Oil Production is responsible for the current low oil prices ans subsequent Russian economic collapse.

Assad will be forced by Putin to step down....this much is now certain.

When is the question.

AboveAlpha

 

Putin announced today that he has no right to ask Assad to step down.

 

Yes...I know that's what Putin said to the media.

What Putin said to us is another thing altogether.

Putin will force Assad to step down.

This was the entire purpose of Russia going into Syria in the first place.

To get a bargaining chip.

AboveAlpha

 

So with Assad gone who is in charge?

 

Well from what I understand in return for the U.S. lowering oil production Putin will force Assad to step down and then elections will be scheduled.

The U.S. might also allow the Islamic Pipeline to be built but I think the Arab Pipeline will be built as well in a compromise.

Prior to Russia going into Syria Putin did not have this bargaining chip and as I said I thought Putin would wait until a new U.S. President was in office but it seems the Russian economy is doing worse than anticipated and Putin has no choice but to force Assad to step down.

AboveAlpha

 

What Islamic pipeline? From Qatar and south Pars?

 

Why would Putin want to remove Assad? Putin and Assad have a deal. They are allies. Putin never betrays his allies. Even such stupid like Yanukovich.

 

No.

That is the Arab Pipeline.

The Islamic Pipeline will be from Iran into Syria then it will connect to the Arab Pipeline that will also run into Syria then into Turkey then to Europe.

AboveAlpha

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Putin does not have a choice and Putin sending the Russian Military into Syria was for the purpose of gaining a bargaining chip with the U.S. and to gain the Islamic Pipeline.

AboveAlpha

 

I think Putin has at least several choices. He sent airforce to Syria to prevent the US no-fly zone over the country, that of course would mean the end of Assad and final collapse of Syrian statehood.

 

No matter what Putin does he has a Russian Economic Depression hanging over his head which he cannot do anything to stop the ever downward spiral of the Russian Economy.

The U.S. holds all the cards economically and militarily and a few more than 30 Russian aircraft in Syria is a half hearted attempt to gain any possible leverage in the coming U.S./Russian negotiations.

Putin has secured himself a bargaining chip in Assad.

Putin will sell Assad out.

AboveAlpha

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Correct.

An agreement will probably be made where both pipelines connect and carry Natural Gas through Syria and into Turkey then to Europe.

AboveAlpha

 

Alpha, I don't know if you are dreaming, if you are being told these things by a voice in your head, or if it's one of Washington's propaganda ruses, so people will believe Assad will be stabbed in the back by Putin. The plan is for Assad to start overreacting in some way...but give it up. He knows Putin will never sacrifice the lives of all the Orthodox Christians in Syria for money. It's just another brainstorm by some juvenile Washingtonians. Besides no one in their right mind trusts Washington. They all lie.

What will happen is a war with Turkey, but that will probably be in six to nine months. Erdogan has a few more crazy moves to make before that comes about.

Don't forget I told you this. I'm a mystic you know?

 

I have no crystal ball.

This is what will happen.

Putin has already made several comments about free and fair elections in Syria and it's just a matter of time before Assad is forced to step down.

Russia going into Syria was never about cementing Assad's rule.

It's all about Russia.

AboveAlpha

 

I think your concerns about Russia's economy are a bit exeggerated. There is nothing dramatic happens here.

I think that will never happen. As I've said above he doesn't sell his allies.

Why would Russia start a war for Iranian gas pipe-line? It's senseless.

 

Alpha can I ask you something. Why would Russia concern itself with more natural gas, when it has enough to supply Europe?

 

Russia and Putin have absolutely no intention of starting a war with the U.S. as that would mean the end of Russia.

The Russian Economy is shrinking by about 4.5% a year and it shows no sign of recovering.

This is all because of U.S. Oil production.

Putin want's to continue having a monopoly supplying Natural Gas to Europe and the Arab Pipeline threatens this and that is why Putin's want's the Islamic Pipeline to be built as Putin feels Russia's relationship with Iran will allow him a degree of control.

AboveAlpha

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Look at post #16.

AboveAlpha

 

Have no idea why we'd want to start war with USA.

I don't see what is the difference between Qatar's natural gas and Iran's natural gas. Why Qatar's gas threatens Russian's "monopoly" and Iran's one doesn't?

About US oil production:

 

Russia and Putin have no intention of starting a war with the U.S. and the U.S. has absolutely no intentions of starting a war against Russia.

What is currently going on is a lot of warlike talk by Putin but even Putin has toned this down a great deal as Putin knows he needs U.S. help with the Russian economy.

Putin also want's to be able to help the building of the Islamic Pipeline as this would allow Putin a greater deal of control with the help of Iran as far as the natural gas flow coming into Europe.

The U.S. backs the Arab Pipeline and a deal will be worked out so both pipelines are built and exchange for Assad stepping down the U.S. will lower oil production which will help the Russian economy recover.

AboveAlpha

 

We'll see.

 

We certainly will.

As I said I did not think this would happen until after a new U.S. President was sworn in but from what Putin is saying it looks like it will happen before this.

AboveAlpha

 

In the peace talks that have been going on with Lavrov for the past months, the agreement is that Assad will eventually step down. They will also hold elections, and not wait for Assad's seven years to be up. He will probably win...and as long as the people want him, he can't turn his back on them.

Russia like China, will always back the legitimate government in Syria, because to do differently would eventually threaten their own security and position. This is why Putin says it is not the person of Assad they are supporting, but rather his position as the legitimate president of Syria.

 

The U.S. has told Putin that if Putin want's U.S. help to save the Russian economy that Assad must go.

If Putin has a choice between keeping Assad in office or saving the Russian economy....Putin will chose to save the Russian economy.

AboveAlpha

 

If Assad steps down, I just hope there will not be any uprisings.

 

The main reason Russia is ultimately an unreliable ally for Assad has to do with the nature of Russia itself. Specifically, since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has lacked a clear ideological agenda or blue print to guide its actions and, outside of "near Russia", has in the recent past proven itself unwilling to stand up to the collection of interests and states which unlike Russia do follow a more or less defined blue print for their actions. This was specially true when Russia feared that the West would work to isolate it politically and economically and had an eye on proving that it could be a partner to the west in "solving" various conflicts (never mind many of those conflicts had their genesis in western actions). This timidness by Russia is exemplified by Russia's attempts to at the same time court the two primary actors which help stage and define US policy and actions in the Middle East, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia, which then makes Russia's emerging alliance with the states and groups comprising the axis of resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, as well as many of the groups and political parties in Iraq) all the more fragile.

Anyway, this NY Times article might be a useful guide for the positions being taken regarding Syria by various sides.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/13/world/europe/vienna-Syria-talks.html?_r=0

 

Assad can't step down, because there is no one to take the leadership and the chaos will be worse than it is now...but that's what Washington wants, since its intent is to break Syria into parts. That way Israel, Turkey, Jordan, and who knows who else can grab a chunk.

This is why Russia said there will have to be a transitional period.