Hurricane Florence

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by flyboy56, Sep 11, 2018.

  1. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We had a National Guard unit set up a mobile desalination plant near the ocean. Local folks could drive over and have containers filled with clean drinking war. It was pretty impressive operation.
     
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  2. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not so easy when living on an island and all the municipalities are experiencing the same troubles.
     
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  3. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually there were quite a few meteorologists that were questioning the forecasts and strength almost a week prior to landfall. One being an old fart weather man here in Vermont. He took about 5 minutes 4 days ago to explain how dry surrounding air was being entrained into the upper levels of the cyclone and into the eye from the south and west making it unstable and atypical. In his opinion he didnt see how the 'boys' at the national weather service could state Flo had the sustained winds reported, or that strengthening was sustainable.

    Our aging weather man here pulled up the dropsonde data from Florence starting a few day prior. Dropsondes are the sensors the Hurricane Hunters drop from above a hurricane to capture data at various altitudes on its way to the surface. The dropsnodes placed in the southern / southeastern quadrant(s) were consistently capturing humidity and temperature data that was showing a very dry air mass dominating and contiguous south and west of Flo.

    [​IMG]

    In looking for dropsonde data on Flo for this post i found the below blog about this very subject. The subject being: why are we overstating the size and power of these storms when the observable data right in front of us says otherwise?

    http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091218.htm

    The above is a rant for sure, puked out in frustration but "cranky" is very detailed and makes a compelling argument. His / her thoughts here express my thoughts and concerns well better than I could. Its worth the read if you're into well referenced (with maps, charts, images, raw data and links) and arcane minutiae about hurricane systems, modeling, measurements and forecasting.

    Here's a sample to give you the gist.

    [​IMG]

    The NHC has finally hedged on this and we're "down to" 130mph however we never were at 140mph to begin with.

    Also please note something here. They are ignoring their own instruments and staying above them. The instrument says it is approximately 123mph. Given the poorer convective structure you'd likely be more around 115mph.

    Another key point in the wording. They hunt through these systems to find the highest wind they can, typically in an isolated pocket of thunderstorms, then affix that as the maximum value.

    While technically true this misrepresents the storm as a whole and I have never and will never subscribe to this new methodology. In the past they toss those readings as "isolated" and go with a more wind field representative reading. I guarantee you if this was the 1980s or 1990s this cyclone would be at 115 right now because that is what the primary regional observations show.

    The NHC said in 2005 they would become much more aggressive in affixing intensity ratings, in what and when they named a cyclone, and they made good on that promise. Unfortunately this means most cyclones rarely verify the glorified "max wind" and then the public becomes increasingly distrustful and complacent.

    You are led to believe a 100 mile wide region of 140mph winds are coming. In reality a 100 mile wide region of 100-115mph winds are coming with a pinprick localized pocket of up to 140mph in the perfect thunderstorm downdraft. Hey, that downdraft redevelops right as the system passes over a buoy or beach town observation post? You might get 130mph gusts verified. But you're not gettin 140 sustained gusting 170. It just won't happen and MOST people MOST would see winds in the 70s to 90s sustained with some gusts in the 100-105 and in a localized region.

    So my job is to tell you two things. One, follow the NHC, the NWS, and your local statements. TWO: Show you the internal mechanisms and what they mean and offer my opinion. That's it.​
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  4. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yet crews from many states were transported there to help rebuild the grid and generation and have done so.
     
  5. Crownline

    Crownline Banned at Members Request

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    Biohazard anyone?
     
  6. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sure, but it's not like they hopped in their utility vehicles and drove here. It took months to get the support here. Plus contracts needed to be established first.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  7. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Fishing waders should be worn.
     
  8. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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  9. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I saw a news report on Wednesday that a drunk Florence called the U.S. Coast Guard at 2:00 AM in the morning looking for a place to crash.
     
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  10. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Wishes for her safety, it's getting more dangerous:

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And because he pulled us out of the Paris accords and loosened some EPA regulations Flo died down before she made landfall and Gordon never became a Cat 1. Good job Trump.
     
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  12. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Flooding is now becoming a serious problem, especially for NC.
     
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  13. Louisiana75

    Louisiana75 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And of course looting, you can't have a disaster without those who wish to use it to their advantage. This is probably one of the main reasons so many do not want to evacuate their homes.
     
  14. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Back in the days of Camil the governors called out the National Guard put on a curfew and order them to shot any looters.
     
  15. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Oh I know, but the did having to deal with the unions and the corruption.
     
  16. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Even those want give you total protection from a puncture wound. Stay out of the water unless you doing search and rescue.
     
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  17. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    14 people have DIED because of Hurricane Florence.
     
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  18. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    North Carolina appears to have borne the brunt of the storm, although South Carolina might see some after effects as the rivers and streams continue to rise.
     
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  19. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes they have.
     
  20. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    :roflol::roflol::roflol:

    I want a cake news emoji

    Cake news?? Bloody spell checker. Fake news!
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
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  21. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Shooting is too good

    Better is a bloody good arse kicking
     
  22. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Puerto Rico is not a "right to work" island.
     
  23. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Cake news sounds better, I want to hear all about your latest Victoria sponge.
     
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  24. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
  25. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    One confirmed fatality in Richmond, Va.

    Tornadic activity moving over the heavily populated areas of the West End of Richmond right now.

    Looks like the storms are tracking towards the Metro DC area...
     

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