I believe that The Donald, has given Mitt, the fuel he needs to convince Mrs. Romney

Using your 47-47 numbers in 2006 the remaining 6% broke down 57-39 for the GOP. That would be an additional 3.42 for the Dems vs. 2.34 for the Republicans. So if each party base is 47% instead of what Gallup put forth the final vote totals in the 2006 congressional election should have been 50.42 to 49. 34 for the Republicans. The final congressional vote was 52.3% for Democrats and 44.3% for Republicans.

To match the 47-47 base number you state would mean a whole lot of Republicans stayed home and instead of winning only 57% of the independent vote the Dems took all 6% to use your figures.

Using the 2008 presidential election of 47-47, you run into the same problem. McCain received 45% of the vote to Obama 53%. Once again instead of independents going 52-46 for Obama, once again using your 6% of the electorate, all 6% would have to have had to vote for Obama while once again a whole bunch of Republicans stayed home.

I could go on to 2010, 2012 and 2014. Since about 1992 the Democrats have had a larger base with roughly a 35-30 margin over Republicans. The 80% of lean Independents has change over time and election to election. Again using Gallup figures, 36% of the electorate was independents in 2006. 18% leaned towards the democrats which is 50% of all independents, 10% leaned toward Republicans or 28% of all independents with the remaining being in the true or pure independent category with no leans.

2008 35% of the electorate identified as independents with 15% lean Democrat and 9% lean Republican which means in 2008 43% of independents leaned towards the Democrats down from 50% in 2006. 26% of independents leaned towards the Republicans down from 28% in 2006 and the rest fell into the pure/true independent category

2010 was a big switch. 34% of the electorate identified as independent, but 15% leaned toward the Republican Party this time or 44% of all independents, up 18 points from 2008. 12% of the electorate were in the independent lean Democratic category which comes out to 36%, down from 43% in 2008.

That is way too much switching which I could carry through 2012 and 2014. Your 47-47 numbers just do not compute with election results and the number independents switching from one party one election year to the other party the following election year and back again.

 

That is exactly correct. That 47 percent number simply indicates what percentage of registered voters are most likely to vote a given way. It of course is not exact but basically just shy of half the voters break for one side and the other half for the other with the rest (independents) usually consisting of single issue votes.

 

Okay, I do not think we are that far apart, only looking at things different. In 2004 the Democrats had a base of 35% plus lean Democrat of 12 for a total of 47%. Republicans had a base of 33 plus lean Repubican Independents of 13 for a total 46% which left 7% of the electorate as pure/true no lean independents.

In 2006 the Democrats had a base of 34% of the electorate but a lean Democrat independents of 18 for a total of 52%. Republicans a base of 29% plus lean Republican independents of 10 for a total of 39%. That left 9% of the electorate as no lean Independents. Big year for the Democrats as they recaptured the senate.

2008 showed a Democratic base of 37 plus 15% lean for a total of 52% whereas the Republican base was 26% and 9% lean Republican for a total of 35%. That left 18% pure independents and another big year for the Dems.

2010 had a Democratic base of 32% of the electorate plus 12% independents lean Democratic for 44%. Republicans had a base of 33% plus lean independent Republicans of 15 for a total of 48% and the GOP won back the house. That left only 8% as pure/true no lean independents.

2012 Democratic base of 35% plus their lean independents of 16 which gave them 51%, Republicans had a base of 30% plus 12% lean Republican Independents for 42% leaving 7% no lean independents.

2014 Democratic base of 28% with 13% independent lean Democratic for a total of 41%. Republicans had the same percentage base 28% but had 18% lean Republican Independent for a total of 46% leaving 11% as pure/true independents.

As you can see, party affiliation along with whom an individual leans toward is very dynamic. Constantly changes. Today or as August 8th, 2015, the Democratic base is 31% plus 14% lean democrat for a total of 45%. Republicans are at 27%, but have an independent Republican lean of 18% for a total 45% leaving only 9% as no lean independents.

There 47-47 scenario is a bit off, but close if it includes the leans. But as you see the Democrats constantly have a bit larger base vote while the leans go up and down and at times by quite a lot. The Democratic lean independent vote ranged from 12% to 18% of the electorate depending on the election while the Republican lean independent column ranged from 9% to 18%. That is a lot of switching which party they lean towards and throw in the pure/true independents of around 8-10%, That is around 15% of the electorate that is in flux. Not 6.

.

 

AboveAlpha...… as I am certain you know better than 99% of us on this forum, including myself, we humans do have a tendency to think that other people think, much like we personally think.

It might just be almost a decade ago but I decided to join one of the online chess clubs. I went in........ and noticed that "Jake the Snake" was there........ that Jake was classified as Grand Master Level.....(over 2000 points, which I know that you understand far better than I do)........... so I messaged Jake and asked him it he would be willing to play against me...… I explained that I was not in his league but I had taught my step son from my first marriage to play chess and four months later he was Nova Scotia champion for Grade 5 students.

At the national championship in Montreal in 1991 he did win against the Grade 5 champion from Saskatchewan, (one of the only other provinces with a population of only one million people)!

In a five minute game with Jake I had made over fifty moves and although I had lost my Queen it wasn't near being over.......... I probably could have delayed the inevitable for perhaps twenty or more moves...… perhaps another fifty, in a ten minute game.

I thought that that was pretty good for a red neck from the back woods of Nova Scotia, so later on I went in again...… and "King Cobra" was there...… King again was Grand Master level and even in two minute games I could still be alive having made well over thirty to fifty moves.... which verified that game with Jake...… which I thought might be a fluke..... because I know that I am less than 1500..... probably less than 1400 on that scale used to rate chess players.

AboveAlpha...… Mr. Donald Trump, for all of his flaws, IS NOT STUPID!

Surely he knows what he is doing and I think he must be playing the metaphorical role of a political Boris Spassky, and surely, he knows that his behavior is PERFECT....... to give Mrs. Ann Romney the fuel that she needs to get psyched up for another grueling Presidential campaign????!

I cannot imagine that Mrs. Ann Romney will not soon give Mitt the go ahead to "go get 'im!!!"

I really think that The Donald is much like one of the wrestlers who plays the role of the "villain" but surely.........… he knows that his campaign so far will almost certainly lure Mr. Mitt Romney into the campaign......… and Mr. Romney, under these circumstances...… will appear like the hero riding in on his "white horse" to save the G. O. P. from the "evil" Donald........... but in actuality........... The Donald may be deliberately doing a brilliant "Boris Spassky" imitation in order to set Mr. Mitt Romney up to play out a role much like a Bobby Fischer of USA politics?????!

http://www.politicalforum.com/showthread.php?t=418381&page=15&p=1065383370#post1065383370

Could we Canadians STOP the Iran Deal?????

 

I have to question why anyone thinks Donald Trump is saying anything more than what he knows people want to hear, and what will keep him in the papers. I have to question even more so what has anyone convinced that Trump is even a republican at all. His history does not seem to indicate it very often. Perhaps a fiscal conservative... but watch how he plays with the minds of the religiously devout. He couldn't answer the question of what his favorite bible verse was, because he couldn't remember one.

But sure, I'd love to see Romney lose again. Having he and Hillary spar in the political arena would be like watching a battle of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots - emphasis on robots. Soulless automatons, the two of them.

 

At this moment there is a verse in scripture that I find to be profoundly encouraging.......

"but the goat on which the lot fell for Aza'zel shall be presented alive before the LORD to make atonement over it, that it may be sent away into the wilderness to Aza'zel."(Leviticus 16:10 RSV)

Because I strongly suspect that it fits in with...…

If that makes you kind of curious you may wish to read a few posts on page one here.....

http://www.christianforums.com/threads/yom-kippur-the-rapture-connection.7647325/

I am a Canadian.................... I am not even an American and even I am aware of......…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy

 

The same Edie Reno who gave this prophecy regarding Mr. Mitt Romney once posted on my Facebook wall........ that I, Dennis Tate, was an "Artist."

Once I saw what she had posted there I was scratching my head and wondering about that........... because I don't really think of myself as being all that particularly artistically inclined....... but after thinking about it for several months........ it hit me that these films that I get in my head that could perhaps correspond with possible new time lines........... are indeed a form of "art."



http://www.christianforums.com/thre...ad-some-sort-of-darius-mantle-on-him.7812039/

 

This was written on September 15, 2015!

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/mitt-romney-enter-race-save-gop-from-trump-213145

 

It also seems like much of the Big Money GOP donors may be waiting for Mitt to run.

This may be pretty much exactly why Mitt knew that last January was NOT the time for him to announce his campaign!

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423332/mitt-romney-donors-pine-2016

 

Which is why he shouldn't.

 

Have you seen the film "Mitt?"

I viewed it on Netflix and consider that Mr. Romney, his wife, his kids and the people who he chooses to hang around with are some of the most likeable political movers and shakers that I have ever seen in action.

 

Whether he decides to actually run or not Mr. Romney will play some sort of interesting role....... for example..... he might even choose to serve as V. P. along with the leader that he likes the most?!

http://www.politicalforum.com/lates...new-hampshire-poll-but-still-not-running.html

Mitt Romney leads New Hampshire poll.... but still not running.



Mr. Mitt Romney is certainly in an interesting position isn't he?

I cannot remember any other defeated Presidential candidates who became so popular afterwards.

I personally would love to see him enter the race.


http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...not-running/TeFU5B7itF5nqCyvGrf9HL/story.html

 

Mitt should save himself the embarrassment. If he entered the race he would be neck and neck with Jeb. Have people not been paying attention? There is much anger in the electorate. The establishment politicians are pretty much done for. Mitt Romney blew an election he should have easily won against obama. What makes people think he can swoop in and take the nomination?

Mitt could not handle Candy Crawley in a debate against obama so Mitt surely would not be able to handle Trump.

 

If the statistic is correct that he would have double the supporters for The Donald in New Hampshire....................... coming out public, even as a write in candidate.........… would give Mitt one seriously dramatic entrance into the race?????!

 

Define "very few?"

Depending on the exact percentage of Americans that want him to run...............… this has given Mitt a truly valid reason to hold back and wait and wait....... until the time is right!

 

right now, few is in single digits among Republicans. Probably less than 3 percent. the Tea Party faction along with the Religious right sure do not want him. They didn't back in 2012 either.

 

But....... they don't want to lose the election to Senator Clinton and Mitt has some serious advantages over The Donald and over Dr. Ben?!

 

Perhaps he does. But Trump supporters are dead set against him and against Bush. Trump supporters by the thousands are throwing terms like RINO around against Bush and Romney. I have heard a few say even it is better to have a true Democrat win than a Republican who acts like a Democrat and gives Obama and his team pretty much everything they want. I have the impression Trump supporters are more interested in making a statement than winning an election. It is the Republican establishment who is concerned about winning, not Trump supporters. Trump stands up against Clinton as the least attractive and has the less chance of winning of any of the GOP potential nominees.

At least in the head to head polling done so far. All potential GOP nominees lead Clinton, Trump trails her by an average of 5 points whereas the rest are ahead of Clinton by about that same average. But we are still in the silly season until the official primaries kick off on 1 February and a lot can change and will. No one knows what the next unforeseen event will be that might impact the election.

 

I am 99% positive that this is written by the Admin of a page...… not by Mrs. Ann Romney herself...… but this is interesting:


https://www.facebook.com/FirstLadyA...41132.92760.383594785008126/1073131962721068/

On second thought......… this is a rather official looking page with over 111,351 likes?????!

https://www.facebook.com/FirstLadyAnnRomney/

 

LOL Mittens... What would this be... like his 5th presidential campaign? What a joke and sell out.

 

Well...... if Mitt doesn't toss his hat in the ring within a few weeks.... the possibility of him winning is probably over?!?!

- - - Updated - - -

LOL!!!!

You have chosen your name here very well indeed Sir!

 

Who'd have thought there would be a candidate to make mittens look sane, rational, and grown up. Thanks comb over.

 

I personally am 80% convinced that if Mitt would enter the Presidential race over the next few weeks...... he would become President of the USA in 2016!

 

American voters have become so insistent on unsustainable levels of entitlement and too-good-to-be-true promises, that we have no responsible candidate willing to take on the challenge. This won't end well.



​

 

My view is different..... America is like one big massive documentary and reality film production cooperative with 320 million stars who were chosen to play out their role even before they were born???!

http://www.near-death.com/science/research/pre-existence.html
Pre-Existence and the Near-Death Experience