I need problem solvers; Math shows we've already surpassed 100% herd immunity

In my neighbourhood, we had ZERO cases/deaths UNTIL two post-secondary students drove home during hunting season. Next few days, they didn't feel good, however, TOO LATE! They've infected at least 3 family members, and one of the most well-liked guy/farmer in our community......within 10 days, DEAD!

In my neighbourhood, most old folks are still living in their homes, and children, (mainly second generation), rotates for their personal needs, house chores, and maintenance, and in their minds, Nursing Homes are prisons.

Well, guess how scared and paranoid they've become when ''Little Old Pete'' was suffering, and died of Covid19?

Thus, in my very Conservative/Republican neighbourhood, and after the death of LOP, the attitude towards Covid19 was the extreme opposite of Trump's no-mask/no social distancing political rallies.

 

Oddly enough, I do not know one person personally that has died from Covid. The closest that I have been aware is a coworker of my brother in law that passed. This is shocking to me. I know a lot of people, I work with a lot of people. I am a very social person. I have maybe 400 friends on Facebook. I have not seen one of them post that their brother, father, or mother etc has died from Covid. With 6 degrees of separation I would have expected to have heard about far more than I have. I am not necessarily trying to imply anything from this reality, other than I am surprised.

Why are the old folks still staying isolated in their home? Have they not gotten vaccinated? Old people by in large are vaccinated at very high rates. It seems to me that if you were worried enough to stay isolated, you would be worried enough to get the vaccine.

 

You get to choose;

a. Some experts; We will never achieve herd immunity
b. Some experts; We've already achieved herd immunity
c. Some experts; It will become like the flu, however, still an all season virus, and more transmissable.
d. Some experts; We need to achieve 80% to 90% herd immunity

My answer; I don't know, however, at this stage, the name of the game is to keep people out of hospitals.

 

Again sir the numbers say that Trump was correct. The d variant is leaking through the Vaccine at least to some extent.

 

The apparent flaw is common among persons not trained in statistics.

You should have used a Venn Diagram.

Many vaccinated were also exposed. My father and I would be two such examples, as he was asymptomatic; I wasn't; neither of us were tested; but both vaccinated (and we were horizontal for a few days on the first dose but the second was a walk in the park.)

You counted the exposed and vaccinated twice, which inflates your numbers.

 

No, after their two shots, they've been feeling like me; Freedom

Here's a good one I recently heard; Yesterday, I drove by an old house......I know the old couple who live there, and there were approx. 8 vehicles in their driveway, thus, a huge get together........I just stopped to say hello, and I heard someone yelling; "Let's keep gatherings to a MAXIMUM''..........Ironically funny!

 

Due to the following experts.......

a. Some experts; We will never achieve herd immunity
b. Some experts; We've already achieved herd immunity
c. Some experts; It will become like the flu, however, still an all season virus, and more transmissable.
d. Some experts; We need to achieve 80% to 90% herd immunity

.......I came to the following conclusion; How many more hundred thousands can we keep out of hospitals?

How many millions will most likely not be hospitalized for covid19?

Approx. 75 million Children age 0 to 17
Approx. 175 million vaccinated Adults

75 + 175 = 250 million

Thus, forget herd immunity, and let's focus on how many more hundred thousands can we keep out of hospitals.

Herd immunity; Argumentative!

 

Cases are up in 49 of 50 states. That does not smack of immunity. Come on folks you are smarter than this.

 

AND, I'd bet in some places within those states herd immunity is at work.

 

A much larger percentage of the elderly (and therefore greatest risk to die) have already been vaccinated.

AGAIN:

 

Especially not when something like 10% of the vaccinated are getting delta...

 

are you saying 10% of of people vacinated have gotten the Delta version? According to U Mass. health 4,500 vaccinated people have come down with the Delta varient out of 4.3 million.
https://www.umassmed.edu/news/news-...ck-in-covid-19-cases-largely-in-unvaccinated/

 

Well, here is the problem with your logic.
1. You assume getting the vaccine and getting infected are mutually exclusive when you add those numbers together. Here is a more accurate estimate:

Percent Infected = 144/332 = 43.4%
Percent Vaccinated = 166/332 = 50%

But the vaccines aren't 100% effective. Pfizer is 88% effective against the delta variant. Moderna is similar. They are like 95% effective against the alpha variant. J&J is more like 70% effective. Its complicated so lets just say the effectiveness is 90% for two doses and 70% effective for one dose.

But also consider that natural immunity is less effective than vaccination for protecting against the delta variant. But reinfections are rare so far. Lets say the protection of natural immunity is 50%.

So the people who were successfully vaccinated:
Fully vaccinated: 166/332*.9 = 45%
Partially vaccinated: 20/332*.7 = 4%
Total vaccinated = 49%
Previously vaccinated and no reinfection = 144/332/2 = 21.7%
Percent Infected & Vaccinated if random = 1 - (1 - .49)*(1- .217) = 60% = 200 million
Above but doesn't take into account effectiveness = 1 - (1 - .56)(1 - .434) = 75% = 250 million

332 million - 200 million protected = 132 million vulnerable. However, studies have shown that if you have been vaccinated or previously infected, and get covid the symptoms are much milder. So its 50 million who can get re-infected and 82 million who have never been vaccinated or infected before. But since older people are more likely to be vaccined they tend to be younger.

 

I raised this point at least twice and the OP didn't want to acknowledge it. So he used faulty logic to make a claim about Republicans that doesn't hold water it seems.

 

Herd on the covid, but not the variant, and if we don't get to herd on the variant, there will be more variants, weakening the herd immunity altogether, and the antivaxxers are the problem.

 

Yet 3 out if 30 Texas lawmakers got it.

 

"Non-confirmed" cases = imaginary cases, not REAL cases.

 

HOGWASH!