Nate Silver: Trump Has A 57.5% Chance Of Becoming President-

Exactly...

 

The way things are stacking up, he'll only need one or two. But you missed the entire point of my post.

 

I bet you were (maybe you weren't) one of the people who said Trump had no chance at winning the primaries too. How'd that work out?

 

Not even President yet and has already accomplished more diplomatically than the DNC nominee.

Good job Trump!

Thanks for pointing that out.

 

Everyone but Clinton supporters believed it...

That's why when DWS came out and said she was not favoring Clinton, everyone laughed at her. Except Clinton and her supporters.

 

So what?

He won a plurality vote of a minority party (in a overwhelmingly white electorate).

The general election actually has Blacks, Latinos and Asians, etc.

Any of Trump's sheep trying to equate winning a GOP primary (overrun by uneducated/misinformed hillbillies) with winning the General election only serve to expose the lack of intellectual sophistication (about the electoral process) that define the vast majority of his blinded supporters.

Sorry to give you a dose of reality.
Don't shoot the messenger.

 

Hillary is going to get stomped...

You do realize unions are supporting Trump (which never happens when a republican is running), he is destroying Hillary with the independent vote - not only that but Trump is taking 25% of the Sanders vote...

Oh yea and he's polling way higher with minorities than republicans had in the past since the 50's...

Hillary is going to get smashed.....

With the union vote Trump can take traditionally blue states such as Illinois and Michigan.... Trump is winning the swing states as I type this.

 

Anyone that says that Hillary will get demolished or Trump will get demolished...what flavor crayon do you eat the most?

 

The OP was (mis)citing the "Nowcast", which says, "who would likely win if the election were held today?"

The two models that actually forecast the real vote in November have Hillary winning -- the polls-only model has her winning 53-47, while the polls-plus model has her winning 59-41.

 

It's not impossible he wins but you're really underestimating how bad the map looks for republicans. Trump can win NC, Ohio and Florida and still lose

You can even give him Co, and he still loses...and he's behind there.

 

The poll used by CNN that suggests Trump recieved a post convention "bump" of 5% against Hillary nationally, was the one I found most encouraging. Trumps advance was equal to Johnsons decline, and that indicates Trump is drawing support beyond the disillusioned Sanders supporters he expects to win over.

 

Trump won't sustain that bump.

It will be erased by next week.

 

But but but that's not what Nate Silver was saying two weeks ago.

 

Funny you should mention that. I too was surprised by the bump, and came to accept it-until I read this article.

Before you roll your eyes at the source-note that it has been surprisingly accurate in calling out the political landscape this election cycle.

Anyway what it claims, is that Trump hasn't experienced a bump, but that the media has been misrepresenting Hillary Clintons lead for some time, which being biased to no end, they dutifully do. What we are now seeing is really just closer to how the political landscape actually is right now. Trump is far ahead, its saying.

As recently as a few weeks ago, the major polls were putting hillary over trump by 10-12 points. Trump swinging 12-14 points would be a very impressive post convention bump-especially considering we haven't seen one since 2000. It was believed that such bumps have been mitigated by the internet, because people are more familiar with the candidates and dont need to tune into a news broadcast to get exposed to the candidate.

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...clinton-but-did-he-really-get-polling-bounce/

Read the article, and the comments, its not long. I think there might be something to it.

 

ZERO chance of winning Illinois. A minusculely insignificant chance in Michigan.

If you honestly think that Trump has a prayer in Illinois, you are clearly delusional and beyond hope.

As far as swing states? Trump needs to run the table in OH, PA and FL.

He has ZERO chance of taking all 3.

But, keep drinking the kool aid.
Your delusions (like most of PF's pro-Trump echo chamber) are rather entertaining.

Nothing personal, just a friendly observation.

 

See the article I linked to above.

You will dismiss it-but I want you to remember it.

 

More likely is he's getting republicans who were on the fence. Why would folks who want free college go to a guy who thinks govt shouldn't pay for anything?

 

Yea, keep on believing that.......

Trump wins Michigan no problem..... You do realize Detroit has little to no power whatsoever?

You clearly have ZERO idea how well Trump is doing in traditional democratic markets do you?

Hillary is going to get absolutely destroyed in November...... The only thing that can save Hillary would be massive - and I mean - massive voter fraud...

 

Even if he wins all 3, he also needs Colorado or North Carolina

 

Hillarys numbers didn't change, and Johnsons dropped 5% ... maybe they moved to Canada with Cruz?

 

I'm saying those Johnson voters who went to Trjmp were republicans who came home

- - - Updated - - -

Only trump voters proclaim he will no problem in a state where he hasn't had a lead in MONTHS

 

The only people who deny Trump is destroying Hillary right now are the people who read the MSM that has PROVEN to be in the tank for Hillary...

God I can't wait until November and I hope all these progressives will make good on their threat to move out of the country - please LEAVE. Let sane, intelligent capitalists restore freedom and fix our economy..

The "I'm going to leave if Trump wins" progressives beg in Venezuela...

 

That would make America great again.

 

Is the media rigging the polls now also?

 

Just let him keep trying to convince himself Hillary will win. He spams different threads with the same nonsense everyday.
Just let him be, he's not convinced and is just seeking attention.
His biggest thrill is when someone responds to him. Look up progressive paid shills. Or just use post history.
It is what it is.