October 1st 2017 Catalonian Refferedum

Dickie Bird = Word

 

You are right it would have been a disaster for Scots and since the general election here in May when the sweaty Nationalists got their dicks slapped the issue has died.

For what its worth personally...and I caveat that by saying that I am in favour of Brexit, I think what you are looking at is the beginings of a fragmentation or at least the beginings of a discussion about the fragmentation of the EU. Don't forget what "Europe" actually is. Its creation is effectively a post WWI and Post WWII collection of "artificially" created countries/states/peoples that are now integrated into "countries" for example Germany was creation of various duchies that only became a "country" in 1871 there is still within Germany various national identities. Spain is no different as is the UK with Scotland, Wales, Ireland and even Cornwall all trying to assert some form of national identity.

Along comes the EU and tries to get rid of this and make everyone European in order to homogenise all the nation states into one bloc both economically and politically. On paper it sounds good as Europe now opperates under a kind of neo-Kantian political/economic philosophy but in practise it is not so easy. Spain like other european countries is going through hard times at the moment and those "richer" parts are now becoming a bit antsy about their wealth being used to prop up other less wealthy parts of the country - as in the case of Catalonia for example. Once you start stress testing these idiosyncratic national identities then you have to be prepared with clearly defined and coherent narratives and structures in order to deal with the issues; which in the EU case I think they do not seem to have. I guess becuase there are so many conflicting interests and problems and the Kantian view of cosmopolitan federated states is postulated on their being cosanguineous as Kant put it. The EU, in its current political narrative, is not in a postion to countenance approval either actual or tacit of countries/states wanting a certain amount of latitude away from the direction of travel of the political agenda i.e. the defined narrative that is EU policy. The EU wants closer ties and closer co-operation and the direction of travel IMHO is for members to cede greater power and authority to Brussels thus any potential fragmentation or pull back is anathema.

 

I don't think it would be a disaster, that's way to strong.
Scotland does good trade and has tourism, therefore it's currency will hold international value.

I think taxes will go up and this will hurt Scotland financially.
I also think the SNP = morons and that they will go on to collapse the Scottish economy in record time.
I think they are an economic disaster waiting to happen.

But if Scotland got independence and simultaneously got financially literate, which let's face it the political debate in Scotland currently is not, there isn't a deep reason for any earthquakes. It's basically a pretty solid country.

 

It is a net importer of goods. I don't see how that would favor such a small nation. It would have no choice but to use be in the EZ and their independence would be over before it began.

 

But what would it be based upon? Don't forget that the barnet formular basically props up their social systems and the diversion of GDP to fill the barnet gap would be huge. Then they would have to obtain international debt like all countries in order to maintain infrastructure and and and .....debt would be almost impossible at anything like commercial terms as how would you apply a rating? NHS scotland is the largest employer which is commercially non-productive what proportion of GDP is diverted to pay for meds/ops/wages/benefits/pensions etc etc.?

Nah it would end up like Greece a complete friggin fiscal basket case.

 

you are absolutely right its a pipe dream for a few nutbags living in the days of Robert the Bruce and whistling Scotland the Brave...

 

You mean they would lie about their economics to try and gain EU membership?
Greece ARE EU and are, in a crises.
Scotland WON'T be in the EU.

So to be like Greece, you're saying Scotland lies about its finances, like Greece, in the hope of getting into the EU.
Now, a sane EU would be on their guard against this so 'Greece' doesn't happen again...
But I think, the EU will push first think later, will still push for EU expansion and will think the rest of the UK would still be eager to join and take the EU on its offer or whatever, but to be clear, Scotland won't be in the EU without applying.
Would an Independent Scotland be able to afford the EU or would it be a liability?

 

I sort of think they will raise taxes to cover any shortfall. And agree that this is economically harmful in my eyes.

People lend Greece money. And Venezuela.
So borrowing is really not that hard at all. Prices of debt may well rise.
If they screw up like Ireland recently did, the UK will still bail them out.

We're still in business together.

Scotlands got oil, farming, Military production, food and drink. clothing. Might even make Nissans.
They have Scotch Whiskey. They have trade goods and indeed are world leaders in a few fields.

Does state spending out weigh the profits from this, I think it comes close. A bit over or a bit under, I could believe both.

I see it as similar to Catalonia and Spain. The poor half of Scotland want the rich half of Scotlands money.

 

its a cracker huh! ........who would do such a thing!

I wouldn't bet against that scenario, but would imagine the ECB(Germany) would be on their toes on that one.

What's interesting though and getting back to the OP is that like Scotland would have been, Catalonia is in a pretty screwed up situation as it holds something like 40% of Spanish soverign debt so will they default on that? In order for them to be allowed into the EU all member states would have to approve membership including Spain.

 

Westminster (David Cameron) didn't do, apparently, what Madrid (Rajoy) did, which would have been the equivalent of ignoring Scotland.
In both cases, I believe, the EU in an united front to 'the populist / separatist issue' says, in a scare tactic that any such 'new' country wouldn't be in the EU without applying to be in the EU - first.
David Cameron however, did the right course of action for the Scottish and that was to take them seriously...
In Britain, we had an issue that was quickly answered for us that said...
"ONLY PEOPLE LIVING IN SCOTLAND (could be English or whatever)... ONLY VOTERS IN SCOTLAND should decide Scotland's future... "
Then Politicians from Westminster including Scottish born former British PM Gordon Brown went up there to campaign to remain in the United Kingdom and the SNP I believe lead the Independence with Alex Salmond.
- Unlike this rhetoric of the the Spanish constitution that says EVERYBODY in Spain gets to decide on Catalonia's future, and it is this reason, I believe, Madrid declared it illegal.
When Madrid ignored Catalonia, that was Madrid's answer, an answer that wasn't good enough for Catalonia, that's what I believe is going right now.

 

and now the fun starts....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41528281

watch this space..